I am a great admirer of you (I was an intensive history major Y’55) and Tony Judt. We tend to take WW I or WW II as the start of the reshuffling of the European nationhood board. ‘Ukraine’ has a checkered history from the early days of Kyiv and Rus.
In fact, one needs to go back 500+/- years (or the ‘Dark Ages’) and follow THE LONDON TIMES historical maps of the world. Indeed, I have just watched Robert Greenberg’s (GREAT COURSES) magnificent MUSIC AS A MIRROR OF HISTORY. With extraordinary research of letters and other memorabilia, Dr. Greenberg provides a beautiful historical ballad, with substance sautéed with superb soul.
He provides, to this history professor (1992-2013), a fresh and persuasive insight into the European checkerboard over the past 500 years. Poland?? It was drawn and quartered, and then scotch taped together, far more than pulled pork. Czechoslovakia? Who remembered that 1905 was a pivotal moment in its history? Or the 17th century? What does it mean to be a ‘Czech,’ after Sudetenland in 1938 and the Czech Slovak split in 1991?
As for Italy—-what was Italy when the French arrived and left? How did Napoleon ravage Italy? Cavour and Garibaldi?
Russia seemed like an accordion—shrinking, expanding, a super expansion, and then a post-Soviet Union shrinking. The Baltic states were integral to this musical performance.
All this reinforces—-while Americans, with the exception of the Civil War, have never experienced permanent divisions in the lands acquired over centuries— that Europe has been an historical chessboard with pieces frequently replaced. One might speak of the relative ‘wholeness” of the United Kingdom since the 1707 Scottish agreement, though contemporaries are concerned about the future of Scotland and, perhaps, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Indeed, there was a time when this island nation was physically part of the European continent and elephants were roaming on this locale. Hadrian was a late comer.
Dr.Snyder, do you think WWIII can really be avoided? It seems if Putin continues his war on Ukraine, whether a good idea or not, there are only two outcomes: Ukraine is completely wiped out or WWIII begins. What is any other outcome? Americans need to start climbing on board more quickly with the problem in Ukraine.
I wish there was video with it too. It's easier for me to follow when there is also video. But it's very interesting as always thank you Dr.Snyder.
The talk of WWIII is, I think, propaganda, and it obviously has worked. It seems unlikely to me. France and Germany have been so slow to respond to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine that I can't see either Macron or Scholz going to the trouble of getting themselves involved in a world war. And the US still won't send Ukraine the long range weapons it desperately needs for fear of widening the war which, as TS and others have pointed out only emboldens Putin. Remember, too, that these leaders have to answer to their voting public. Going to war means conscription, to which their populations would react negatively. Getting re-elected is what they live for.
The unfortunate truth is that Ukrainians will continue to be deported, tortured, and die unless the West acts, and soon. To quote Anne Applebaum, "Putin does not need an 'off-ramp.' He needs to lose. And only when he loses - only when he is humiliated - will Russia's wars of imperial conquest finally come to an end" (https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1528720750898823169?lang=en). Several weeks ago I watched a video excerpt from an interview with I think (?) Benjamin Schmidt, but it might have been someone else. He said that German businesses are eager to get back to doing business with Russia, as if nothing had happened. I will look for it, but don't know if I can find it. This is another reason, BTW, that WWIII is unlikely. And it also shows that Ukrainians are up against not only Russia, but people in the West who don't give a sh!t about whether they live or die, but who think only about profit.
And talking of minorities, we should remember that they have been treated horribly not just by the Russian Federation, but before that, the Soviet Union, and before that, the Russian Empire.
You're doing the right thing by thinking about the Ukrainians and what they've had to cope with.
What I hear you saying is Putin will win... so there will be no nuclear war.
Don't forget that Putin's war is not going well, including internally in Russia. Never mind German businesses, include American businesses, ... all business interests. In the meantime Russia's energy offensive in Europe failed :https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/opinion/putins-energy-natural-gas.html?
Paul Krugman: "First, Russia looks more than ever like a Potemkin superpower, with little behind its impressive facade. Its much vaunted military is far less effective than advertised; now its role as an energy supplier is proving much harder to weaponize than many imagined.
Second, democracies are showing, as they have many times in the past, that they are much tougher, much harder to intimidate, than they look.
Finally, modern economies are far more flexible, far more able to cope with change, than some vested interests would have us believe."
The battle is on militarily and politically. if Putin wins, Europe and the US lose will have to face losing and not only Ukraine, but a lot more-- which you know-- not only, say, Taiwan, but far more importantly, world order at least regarding sovereignty of countries. The UN will lose, the charter meaningless, the UNSC a joke. We surely will see nuclear proliferation in countries that want to protect themselves.
Anne Applebaum is not the only one saying that Putin has to lose. By now leaders know this. The West's immediate arming of Ukraine has not only to to do with the will, but ability (capability/feasibility mobilization). Putin has such problems too. It may come down to a battle of political wills versus which side gets exhausted first and/or who runs out of the means to continue.
But it's not over. The expected Ukrainian offensive is critical as is their will to fight.
"What I hear you saying is Putin will win... so there will be no nuclear war." I am so sorry if this is the way you interpreted my comment. Gosh, and I strive so hard for clarity. Just so I can understand where I went wrong, could you please point out to me exactly what I said that gave you that impression? I'm serious about this, Potter. I try so hard to write clearly, and it is disappointing to me when someone doesn't understand what I'm writing/saying.
Yes, I know Anne Applebaum is not the only one to have said that, it's just that I rather like the way she put it :) Yes, I'm familiar with China and Taiwan and how the war in Ukraine might affect China's decisions.
Paul Krugman: "Second, democracies are showing, as they have many times in the past, that they are much tougher, much harder to intimidate, than they look." I'm not so sure I agree with that. I don't know where you live, but things are a bit parlous here in the US. It's hard for me to be optimistic. Democracy is exceedingly rare in world history, and it never lasts.
I should say if I am sorry for my interpretation, not you. It was my conclusion after you bemoaned the lack of aid and will from France and Germany as well as US reticence . So it won’t come to a world war because Putin will keep on destroying Ukraine. So Vicky asks what will happen to Ukraine? And you answer with more about people in the West not giving a shit and busines chomping at the bit to deal w Russia after emphasizing that Putin needs to lose.
So my pushback is that this is not over. Russia is not winning etc what i said above. I don’t think the nuclear threat will not be there for Putin to use as he is showing desperation. Its not propaganda. But there’s a lot to stop or prevent him from using nukes: firstly his rationality, then our warnings and China’s india and most of the rest of the world. It would be suicidal. But Putin’s fear-mongering obviously works.
Yes, Rose,…. compromising on the territorial dispute can stop the devastation you describe, along with people moving to the sides which they agree with.
Understand the potential for compromise with Russia, given the lands Russia has annexed in the eastern portion, the main conflict zone. This special operation WAR is opportunity for compromise, for mutually agreed new Red Line for the new era.
Also, for some more insight, consider the history, as shared about circa 1996:
The USA is causing the prolonging of this devastating territorial dispute on the other side of Earth from the USA,…. causing more Ukrainians to be killed, and more environmental damage to occur.
Scott, how can you choose to say what you say above?
Without hestitation, I disagree.
Without reservation, I call your ''...potential for compromise with Russia, given the lands Russia has annexed...'', your suggestion of drawing ''...new Red Line for the new era'' a horrid suggestion.
Are you suggesting that it is ethical and reasonable to offer other people and the territories they live on to an aggressor? To choose to make the fate of these men, women, and children's lives a bargaining chip choice IS NOT ETHICAL and is not compromise that contributes to a way for humanitarian and political peace; instead, it is rewarding the violent aggressor and choosing to condemn to despotism and worse the men, women and children of the 'give away' territories.
And in this matter of 'annexed' PEOPLE and their territory, is Putin giving them voluntary choice? What is he really giving them? Mass deportation? Violence and intimidation? Political and personal agency, or intimidation and oppression?
Yes, given the relevant history since the 1700's of these areas, prudent respects for the perspective of Putin/RRE's(given the power differentials of Russia and Ukraine), and NATO's expansion. As 'bad' as Putin/The RRE's are,…. it's not worth the devastation which has occurred. The 'higher ground' is working for the desired transformation, or truce, in productive peaceful manner, as much as possible. That requires acquiesence, compromise, humbleness/humility of the weaker power, in that Russia can and will be 'reasonable enough', for their neighborhood polarity interests, where reasonable respects and reasonable compromises are given.
This is about neighborhood, and the differences of how nations operate. THIS IS NOT ABOUT UNIVERSAL ETHICS, THIS IS ABOUT POLARITY OF WORLD REGIONS.
Scott, I appreciate this additional perspective, but I continue to firmly disagree, both in fact and in my human sense of being human.
History is a conceptual practice. There is not a separate 'historical reality' that exists like any living thing exists and like the Earth or its moon exist. As a conceptual practice, historical cognition provides reference points of awareness of human choices and actions and consequences and, often, within additional consequence of events, such as involving other living things and or geological events.
Ethical awareness is distinctively part of our living beings, and it matters to each and every person, because it is part of our awareness of choosing and acting in relation to other people. It is part of every person's awareness of human mutuality and being in human relationship.
Within historical analysis are ideas about relationships. These are ideas, these are not ethical awareness. These ideas are abstractions, like your abstractions including 'relevant history', 'power differentials', 'weaker power', 'polarity of world regions', to name some. These abstractions are irrelevant to ethical awareness, which is grounded and has existence in any and every person's experience in relationships to other people and to other living beings. Ethical awareness is living awareness of living mutuality and significance; it can be forcefully overshadowed by obtuse and circular rationalization, but the conscious effort is always apparent and not ever able to extinguish the ethical awareness.
The devastation being wrought on the Ukrainian people and what makes up their communities is conscious devastation, chosen aggression, willful violence, and abstract and selfishly motivated calculus of asserting power and asserting powerlessness. The choices and the actions that proceed and that are manifested by this devastation and the inhumanity of its character are a conscious chosen calculus that consciously obscures and tortures ethical awareness. There is no and there never has existed a political or geopolitical sense of world and humanity that brings these choices of devastation and dominion within ethical awareness.
The self-defense of the Ukrainians by Ukrainians and with support of others from other distant human communities is an ethical awareness expression. It is an expression of humanitarian and humanistic living in the real world. It expresses clear and simple lessons about self-defending and self-understanding and mutuality in the face of consciously directed murderous violence against people and their communities.
Would you submit yourself and your community to Putin's aggression? Would you oppose being supported by distant people in distant places if you chose to self-defend rather than submit to it? Would you want some calculus of geopolitical abstraction about weaker powers and stronger powers to turn you and your community into political pawns, to have your life and your neighbors' lives compromised into despotic subjugation, because the potential devastation seemed to 'someone' 'somewhere' as TOO much, 'it's not worth the devastation', to use your words?
What human living is not relevant? Not anyone living is irrelevant; that is ethically repugnant, a not ethical assertion.
The devastation experienced by Ukrainians is devastation consciously chosen and applied by Putin et al. Putin et al have consciously and willfully chosen to act to destroy real people - men women children.
This reclamation invasion is about a land grab reclamation. If the Ukrainians want to leave the land, that's fine with Putin,…. he's not trying to make them slaves or to maintain dominion over them. Basically any/all Ukrainian people he's bringing to Russia is for their safety for the circumstance,…. and they'd be welcome to leave if in reasonable safety to return to within Ukrainian jurisdiction, not the Russia annexed zones.
If I lived within Russia's historical lands, I would submit myself in compromise with Putin for mutual productivity. It's the quality of space/environment and society which matter most, with productive peace,…. not merely cultural preferences for being of the liberal West if one happens to prefer.
What human living is not relevant? Powerful question. I'll let you answer it.
To this:
Would you want some calculus of geopolitical abstraction about weaker powers and stronger powers to turn you and your community into political pawns, to have your life and your neighbors' lives compromised into despotic subjugation, because the potential devastation seemed to 'someone' 'somewhere' as TOO much, 'it's not worth the devastation', to use your words?
Ukrainians brought on their own devastation by their own aggression countering Russian influence within Ukraine, not being humble for the conflict situation with Russia.
'Sovereign nation' does not apply in this case for Ukraine,… there's highly valuable historical Russian land involved. The political involvement of Ukraine with The West which involves aggressive efforts for the reduction of Russian involvement in Ukraine is a main reason for the Russian re-clamation of Russia's historical lands within the modern era Ukraine borders, emphasis on the southern-half-eastern portion.
What responsibility does Putin et al of Russia have in exerting influence within Ukraine? Not any! Putin and the Russian state lack the legal responsibility; they have no extra-territorial jurisdiction in Ukraine, which in fact, in very plain fact, did the necessary actions to be recognized internationally, be protected by and be included within the UN Charter and as a UN member.
Humility?! Do you know what humility is? Humility is an ethical awareness of mutualities of character, condition and circumstances that, in turn, engender respect for others. It is an acknowledgement of respect; it is not at all submission nor self-subordination nor appeasement. It is a choice, an ethical choice of relationship. The Ukrainians were not disrespectful of the Russian people nor of the sovereignty of Russia as a nation; while being pressured by many foreign nations' leaders, Ukrainians have done what people everywhere do, i.e., the work they can do to better understand each other and each others needs and strong interests, while at the same time they consciously work to give form and function to their national character and governance mechanisms.
Having read and listened to Prof Snyder and presumably conducted your own due diligence in researching the historical record, where in the world do you stake your claim "'Sovereign nation' does not apply in this case for Ukraine...."? How can you claim that there is legitimate evidence "for the Russian reclamation of Russia's historical lands..."?
And much more to the point is your apparent approval of Putin et al choices, is that correct? And, do you agree or do you disagree with the assertion that both the annexations and the invasion by Russia are not legal in any sense in international law? Do you agree or disagree that the aggression is an international crime and that by choice Putin is supporting crimes against humanity by his forces in Ukraine? Are you appalled by Putin supporters who are kidnapping Ukrainian citizens and are you appalled by the deportation of these kidnapped men, women and children into Russia, all with Putin's explicit approval? Do you see any humility in Putin, in his supporters, and if so, how?
Do you believe, as your assertions and claims suggest, that Putin's vision and annunciation of his neighborhood are the final, factual word here, that he chooses 'history' for everyone?
Bob, I know some people in Ukraine. Life is bearable, life goes on. The Kherson to Luhansk regions are the main battle zones, I don't know people in the Russian-annexed portions on the mainland. I know people in Crimea,…. Crimea is nice, Russia is taking good care. People have to choose their sides. Russia is taking care of Russia's interests in their historical lands, countering the social/political/militaristic advances of The West. Compromise or continue devastation in Ukraine. Compromise brings peace, good peace, productive peace, enjoyable peace. Make the best of the situation, in humbleness/humility, rather than going for broke.
Humanity is absent in Putin's quest for despotic dominion and ruthless repression, through atrocity and murder, through every sort of criminal behavior against Ukrainians of any age, infants, children, adults, the old. I hesitate to ask more questions of you.
The historical character and choices of national leaders in matters of both domestic civil affairs and international relations demand reform in many ways. Reform is a matter of personal choice and collective will and determination.
The maliciousness, the mistakes, the deliberate choices to falsify and mislead and subordinate do not constitute cause, not for anyone, for perpetuating, especially choosing to perpetuate, any or all of them.
Fix what needs fixing. Help your neighbor. Use ethical awareness to the best of capacity in all endeavors.
In the face of any aggression, never submit and always defend.
Thank you for this excellent clarification of empire as the principle for understanding European wars. I feel vindicated in my belief, since day one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they have to be defeated. I would also love to hear you explain why Sweden (im Swedish) and the rest of The Nordics want to be European! Is it that Sweden was an empire of sorts until 1632, got defeated and realized that other ways of operation would be more beneficial (they are)?
It’s not in Russian near future to be free..even Ukrainians don’t understand..there are many who having lived with rampant corruption don’t understand that western governments have to attend to democratic process and can’t make things happen by dictat or bribe
The contention that integration comes from compensatory action to address decline from losing empires (through defeat in wars) although is well argued, I would suggest that the key word here is 'decline'. Talking of losing empires connects integration theory to the world history of empires -- but this is a moot point. 'DECLINE' -- whatever reason this happened -- for empires and non-empires [not all EU members lost empires, did they? some lost a few colonies, but hardly empires that gave them advantages] was the driving force for integration. Trade was important not because it was pacifying, but it allowed growth and reversed decline.
A REQUEST FOR BETTER SOUND, IF THAT'S POSSIBLE, PLEASE, DR SNYDER...
Your voice kept oscillating between close and audible, and then distant and barely audible, as if you had turned away from the mike.
Added to that, as you turned away, you seemed to drop your voice and rush the end of the sentence, so that it became actually inaudible.
I have listened twice, and didn’t do any better on the second try.
Also, those of us listening from overseas, or who have English as a second language, probably have more difficulty than those familiar with the accent and speech tones.
You may find it of interest that as an Australian/UK English speaker, I find you speak so fast I have to literally grit my teeth and strain to hold maximum concentration for an hour! There's no three-second out-times at the end of key points for us to detach then reconnect. I know Americans tend to speak faster, but are you faster even than the American average? Are you trying to fit in the maximum in the time available? Or, once you start, does it just keep coming in a single stream of consciousness? I'm interested to know...
Agree... about the sound on this ( see my comment below) was unusually hard for me. I had to go over and over certain sections and it was impossible to understand. I think Prof Snyder could be more conscious of where the mike is. He must be walking around. Holding the mike would be helpful. The sound equipment itself is not too sophisticated it seems. The room also reverberates as one gets father from the mike. Also I find that I have trouble with many speakers that I would like to hear because they talk fast in passages and what they say comes as a blur. The back button does not always help and when it's live you don't have it. I wonder at times if it's my mind going- which may be. Some do and have learned to speak more slowly and evenly. The evenly part is important too so that the words are not slow, then fast and rushed, then slow then fast again. I don't imagine that this is easy for a speaker and to maintain one's personality or personal style, but it's important. (BTW I have similar problems with Peter Pomerantsov's lectures- important ideas)
I hope this feedback is helpful rather than just critical. The consciousness of communicating, in this case important ideas that one wants to get across ( and needs to) is important. For sure, I am, I think we all here are, thankful for this sharing such as it is.
Prof. Snyder - These are important ideas to communicate. The sound was so bad that i could not make out everything you said. I think you were getting near and then far from the mike, walking around maybe because you faded in and out. it would be very helpful to have a transcript or a summary of this talk. My takeaway is that this is a war that needs to be fought and Putin must lose it for even Russia to win at all. There is no winning otherwise. I think the Euros need to take that on board perhaps more deeply… as we all do, here too.
More Ukrainians are being killed due to USA military support, which is prolonging the war, … whereas a more peaceful compromise would plausibly-possibly have been achieved a year ago. The USA is prolonging this war.
I'm familiar with Russian history.
There are limits to what is acceptable.
Donbas-Kherson-Crimea are within the limits of acceptability. Beyond that, not much.
But the problem with realism is precisely that it is not realistic, for all of the reasons I've already given. If not for US and other military support, the WHOLE of Ukraine would have been annexed by now. It is not the US that is prolonging the war. It is Putin, He can leave any time he wants by making up any story he wants, and most Russians wouldn't be any wiser. The reason for this is that most Russians don't have access to anything except Russian state TV and radio, and their internet is limited. TS has written and spoken extensively about this.
Have you considered the consequences of allowing Putin to win this war? They are enormous, and not just for Europe, but the US. TS has written and spoken about this numerous times. The Russia problem IS the China problem.
You write, "Donbas-Kherson-Crimea are within the limits of acceptability." Again, for whom? Scott, I'm trying to get you to think about the hubris of your position. Who has appointed you realists to to move real human beings around on a chess board? In fact, let's forget about chess boards. History is far more complicated than that.
BTW, if you want to reply to a comment: after you click VIEW COMMENT from your email, you need to page down to the comment, and click REPLY, otherwise your replies will show as new comments rather than replies to mine, and other people in the thread won't understand what you're writing about :) Not only that, but your replies won't show up in my email. The only way I'll see them is if I return directly to the post. I made the same mistake once, and at first couldn't figure out why my comment wasn't in the replies with everyone else's. It's bad design.
I too had a problem with my replies appearing as new comments. I had to go back, rewrite the replies in the correct space, then delete their appearance as new comments.
I agree about the poor design of this website, not least the paucity of editing tools available to those making comments. I have never had to manage without italic, bold, underline...
Remember, Russia is the big power in that neighborhood. It doesn't want NATO jurisdiction over the prime real-estate of Donbas-Kherson-Crimea, at a minimum, which was part of Russia, the country, from the 1700's till about the start time of the USSR, circa 1917-1922. Russia is insisting on a separate polarity from The West for their space. Russia will also have to compromise with nearby regions. I'm sharing my idea of arbitration to get on with peace,… and respecting multi-polarity of the world, - major powers multi-polarity.
What "Russia" wants keeps moving. It seems they want Ukraine. Ukraine is a sovereign country and shows it wants democracy, not autocracy and totalitarianism, its own identity and to make its own choices. If it's true that "Russia" (Putin) did not want NATO at its door, Putin is going about this in a very counterproductive way. NATO was not threatening Putin though that was Putin's perception. The Euros were and are certainly unprepared for this war which surprised many- though for the last decade at least, it should not have. This lecture steps back to look at Russia as an empire that is over but having a hard time about accepting that. As a consequence the Russian Federation will have a hard time ahead hold together. Ukraine, especially including its prime real estate, is fighting for its freedom and sovereignty. Sometimes a war must be fought to get to peace. Your idea is appeasement and the destruction of world order that uses nuclear threats to prevail.
You're not following very well. See what Russia annexed. See the history of Novorossiya since the 1700's through to the USSR. Understand changes, and compromise. Understand polarity, multi-polarity. Understand NATO advancings vs. the Russian RRE/Putin perspective. Understand economic and socio-political influence-matters in the Russian perspective.
Backing Russia in, basically, and assuming jurisdiction of prime real estate which Russia has owned is not going to be tolerated by Russia,…. so, engage in devastation, or compromise.
With the compromise, - a mutually confirmed red-line compromise - , as repeatedly shared in these comments, Ukraine has and will have its freedom and sovereignty.
Btw, Read up on history of Eastern Ukraine / Wild Fields, circa 1996 article:
Thanks so much for this presentation! I found it interesting to see in various publications today that russia says Ukraine and others must get on board with a "new world order" - ie, russian spheres of influence regardless of what anyone wants. Appalling of course and so typical. I hope you will at some point say a few things about the meeting between Ukraine and Poland this week. Given their long history I found it all completely fascinating.
Here's how I've understand that Ukraine/Russia neighborhood, based on the history of the region:
Russia had 'Novorossiya' from the late 1700's through till about the USSR, about 1920, which included the Donbas to Crimea region, and some more land around there. Ukraine was a state within the USSR. Russia was/is the most powerful country in that neighborhood. Ukraine was given Crimea within the context of the USSR as a state, not a country.
That's prime real estate. The Donbas was considered a 'heart of Russia'(multiple 'hearts' in Russia btw). The Donbas was a 'wild-fields borderland' of non-nationalists, basically,… besides Ukraine being considered a various 'borderland' per it's name etymology. Russia has had a military base continuously(or nearly so) in Sevastopol since the late 1700's.
The USA meddled in the deposing of Yanukovich who attempted to make a balance with Ukraine, Russia, and the EU.
Ukraine embarked on pushing Russian influence out in favor of the EU. Given the long intimate intertwining of Ukraine and Russia, and the war against the separatists in the Donbas region,….Russia embarked on reclamation of the Crimea and Donbas regions (and through to the south Kherson bank I'd figure).
The Crimea through the Donbas region is prime real estate for Russia,…. Russia won't allow for that region to go under the jurisdiction of The West, by way of Ukraine.
And so, the prudent thing to do is compromise with Russia, to allow Russia that Crimea-Donbas-Kherson region,…. and beyond that Russia will have to make some conscessions with The West/Ukraine/etc.
Let's take the high ground on this in making peace, and respecting Russia's neighborhood space, given Russia's power and history of acquisition.
Sincerely,
Scott
p.s. I'm not a bleeding heart. I seek compromise and peace, giving reasonable respects to all.
The Budapest Memorandum of 1994 recognized Ukraine's territorial integrity, from north to south (including Crimea) and from west to east (including Donbas). Russia was a signatory to that memorandum. Putin has violated that, as well as other treaties since then. And there was a referendum in 1991 in which at least 90% of the Ukrainian people voted to separate themselves from Russia. What about Ukrainian self-determination?
"And so, the prudent thing to do is compromise with Russia" and "to ALLOW Russia that Crimea-Donbas-Kherson region [...]." Prudent for whom? Who exactly is doing this "allowing"? "Let's take the high ground," you say. "Let's" is a contraction of "let us." Who is this "us"? "Us" is the objective case of the nominative "we," the first person plural of the singular "I' and the objective "me." Do you now understand what this sounds like? Where are the Ukrainians in your solution? It's as if they are in the room with you, but instead of talking directly to them, you are talking ABOUT them as if they were things, not people.
"in making peace given Russia's power and history of acquisition." "Russia had 'Novorossiya' from the late 1700's through till about the USSR, about 1920, which included the Donbas to Crimea region, and some more land around there. Ukraine was a state within the USSR. Russia was/is the most powerful country in that neighborhood. Russia acquired Crimea, not Ukraine. Ukraine was given Crimea within the context of the USSR as a state, not a country." OK, yes. but both the U.S. and India were colonies of Britain, and Vietnam and Algeria of France, and African colonies of various colonial powers, etc. And most of the Ukrainian lands were annexed by the Kingdom of Poland in 1569, and right before that, those lands belonged to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. And the eastern part of Belarus, along with the far westernmost part of Ukraine, were annexed by Poland after the Polish-Bolshevik War of 1919-1920. The western and northern parts of Poland used to belong to Prussia/Germany, its middle part with Warsaw belonged to Imperial Russia, and its southern part belonged to the Habsburg Empire, not even to mention the fact that western Ukraine, including Lviv/Lemberg, also belonged to the Habsburg Empire. In short, the history of the world is one in which powers annex, and then lose lands.
"respecting Russia's neighborhood space". Since when has Russia respected anyone ELSE's space? Mon dieu! Imperial Russia annexed every bit of land it could get its hands on, including that large piece of "real estate" east of Lake Baikal, from China. China hasn't forgotten that, BTW. Imperial Russia was so land-greedy that it even moved into Britain's colonies in Asia. The Anglo-Japanese Alliance of 1902 was to prevent Russia from hogging Britain's colonies: "The original British goal was to prevent Russia from expanding in Manchuria while also preserving the territorial integrity of China and Korea" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Japanese_Alliance). And the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907 settled a colonial dispute between Britain and Russia over Persia, which Russia also tried to take.
Ukraine has shared most of its history with Poland, not Russia, which is why Ukrainian vocabulary is closer to that of Polish than Russian. So if any country has a legitimate claim to Ukrainian lands, it's Poland. Yet Poland gave up its claims to Ukrainian territory long ago, just like Britain gave up its claims to India and the U.S., and other powers gave up their colonial claims to various territories. In fact, the oddist thing of all about your claims is that almost the entire history of the 20th century, especially post-1945, has been a gradual winding down of 500 years of colonization. Why in the world should the rest of us, but especially Ukrainians, put up with a petulant child throwing a temper tantrum over his made-up history, and killing, torturing, and deporting Ukrainians in the process?
Your answer to Scott was great! It is very easy to fall into Putin's trap with the desire to be reasonable and compassionate. Putin is neither. The blood of Ukrainians is on him. It is Putin's desire to remake the Russian empire, full stop.
Everything else is a refusal to face the unpalatable truth that Putin is inimical to a free world and needs to be stopped.
He is very clever. Threatening nukes on top of the cost of supporting Ukraine is his way of forcing us to take the easy way out.
We can't take that road. What happens when he attacks again? What happens when Iran, China, North Korea or any other country run by a self styled emperor decides to invade another country?
And what would it be like living in such an uncertain world where everything could be turned upside down by one man's irrational beliefs?
As repeated before, this special operation WAR can give the confirmation of mutual Red Lines, by all powers involved, which will be agreed to, in compromise given the various considerations. It's the road to take.
Putin is tolerable. The RRE's are tolerable. Compromise with annexations,…. and we'll confirmed Red Lines for the new era.
Not a bleeding heart at all...it’s an aspect of the Substack community that civil conversation prevails..I take your point that US is hardly lily white in all this..true..my fear is that unless Putin is removed he may become the Serb in Sarajevo for our times and knock the devils dance between US and China into something catastrophic...he lives only by maintaining purported threats to moth russia from its natural enemy ..the west...
Don't know if any of you have seen this. I am so angry right now I'm shaking. From the NYT 4/6/23: "Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation. Classified documents detailing secret American and NATO plans have appeared on Twitter and Telegram." Smart move on the part of the Ukrainians: "But early on during the war, Ukrainian officials were hesitant about sharing their battle plans with the United States, for fear of leaks." https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I used to have a friend from college who possibly worked at the Pentagon (what they said I had no proof). Supposedly that person had a blog on incidences of I believe Russian sleepers within our educational institutions. Ok, I could get on board with that from a few of my own possible personal experiences. However, that person was a strong Trump advocate which I could not get on board with. It really boggled my mind how a reasonably educated person, supposedly at least, in the Pentagon could support Trump especially with somewhat a background on the Holocaus, from German point of view, and Russia. But there seemed to be issues with Hillary Clinton and drone usage. That seems to be resolved now under Biden. Maybe what else is happening is Russian oligarch money exchanged for leaks.
Yes, depressing as hell. Mostly because Putin has successfully turned around the American Evangelical propaganda during the 1980s from a battle against a militant atheist Communist Russia to now a union with a conservative Christian Russia. Putin is very good at psychological subversion both in Russia and in America.
Am not convinced Putin knows or cares..but these days every extreme element looks to parse and twist simple logic into evidence of some weird conspiracy…
When I stayed in Russia during the late 1990s it was odd to me how quickly Putin was turning militant atheists, and non believers into at least pretending they were devout Russian Orthodox believers. It's a very real issue.
I was in russia in 70s with French company, then in early 2000s...am saddened by his support amongst older poor demographic which has reinvented Stalin as hero...and by those in west who choose to claim it’s not their war, and is only politics...I can’t accept war as politics...I understand that’s a nuance...
John, that was the first thing I thought of. I'm not the kind of person to jump to a conclusion about stories that have just been broken and about which we know little or nothing. I like to wait until more info becomes available. But in this case, what else are we to think?
But I'm not going to take your advice about not being angry :), or rather :(
I'm thinking that the person(s) responsible for this leak will be quickly found. It's hard to do anything like that without being detected. People who work with classified dox are closely monitored.
Am as upset as you…the leaking of such is pretty much act of espionage in time of war…I have this sinking feeling in back on my head that in future US support will become ever more fraught by extreme left/right in US…am in Canada so can’t speak with authority, but to me Biden hasn’t done a great job of explaining the US stance or assuming tacit responsibility of Budapest which contributed to Ukraine vulnerability. That’s an incomplete analysis as Budapest had no teeth, but has been taken for more that it’s worth by some in both Ukraine (US woes Ukraine) and Russia (US is responsible)…however the links between US/Ukraine run much deeper than general public is aware…
1.) Of course not just the U.S., but other countries, spy on their own allies.
2.) "The documents show that nearly every Russian security service appears penetrated by the United States in some way." Depressing as it is, we already knew this. Something happened during the Obama administration, didn't it? in the office of the Financial Crimes Network at the IRS, which deals with classified dox? It involved phishing, I think. Oh yes, now I remember. Russia was trying to get info about Russian oligarchs they thought were being investigated. And I think at least some of the requested info was emailed to them. Maybe this is a naive question, but why haven't these offices been cleaned out? The same goes with the Pentagon and the FBI.
I just beetled over to Eliot Higgins's twitter (@EliotHiggins), and he has posted the story. Then I went to Christo Grozev (@christogrozev), and he retweeted another Bellingcat reporter, Aric Toler (link below), writing, "This is what one of the maddest threads..make sure you start from the beginning." I'm haven't read it yet. Am going to get myself comfortable and then have a read. I'm going to stick with people who know a lot about this sort of thing. Will let you know if I come across anything interesting.
WSJ News Exclusive | Pentagon Investigates More Social-Media Posts Purporting to Include Secret U.S. Documents
Yaroslav Trofimov and Nancy A. Youssef
8–10 minutes
Documents include details on Ukrainian forces, U.S. arms provided to Ukraine
Updated April 7, 2023 8:57 pm ET
The Pentagon is investigating social-media posts that purport to reveal highly classified U.S. government documents on the war in Ukraine and other key international topics, in what could be one of the most dangerous intelligence breaches in decades.
Well over 100 images, marked with “Top Secret” and other classifications indicating they represent highly sensitive U.S.-produced intelligence, were posted in the Discord message board of fans of the Minecraft computer game around March 1. While many of them were deleted recently, open-source intelligence researchers have managed to download more than 60 files.
The documents, which appear to originate from within the U.S. military and intelligence agencies, include details about the disposition of Ukrainian forces, air defenses and military equipment, classified information about arms and support the U.S. has provided to Kyiv in its fight against Russian invaders, and intelligence on internal matters in a variety of nations, including Israel and South Korea.
The Pentagon said Friday night it is reviewing the matter: “The Department of Defense is actively reviewing the matter, and has made a formal referral to the Department of Justice for investigation,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said.
“We have been in communication with the Department of Defense related to this matter and have begun an investigation,’’ a Justice Department spokeswoman said in a statement. “We decline further comment.”
A CIA spokesperson said the agency is aware of the social-media posts and is looking into the matter.
The Wall Street Journal wasn’t able to independently authenticate the documents, but they contain enough detail to give them credibility, and the leak has rattled Pentagon officials. This week, the U.S. has already changed how military personnel access such documents, defense officials said. But Pentagon officials have yet to determine how the documents appeared online or which military installation they could have come from, defense officials said.
Even before the scope of the disclosures emerged, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that Kyiv would take fresh steps to prevent leaks about its planned spring offensive.
Mr. Zelensky said that he convened the country’s top military commanders and security officials on Friday to discuss the planned push to regain the 18% of Ukraine that remains occupied by Russia. The meeting, he added in a statement, also discussed new “measures to prevent leaks of information about the plans of Ukrainian defense forces.”
Aric Toler, head of research and training with the Bellingcat investigative consortium, said he found the cache of new documents on Friday, a day after at least six purported images of classified U.S. documents were published on the Telegram platform by pro-Kremlin war commentators. At least one of these images had been altered—to lower an estimate of Russian casualties and to inflate Ukrainian losses.
Those and some additional images had been posted on the 4chan messaging platform on Thursday.
Dozens of newly discovered images viewed by The Wall Street Journal contained highly valuable information for America’s adversaries, particularly Russia.
The documents, some of which appear to be briefing materials, outline details of the purported locations and operations of Ukraine’s air-defense systems, quantities of each type of air-defense missiles and sobering predictions of when Ukrainian forces would run out of each kind of munition.
Other documents contained detailed information on the schedules and routes of U.S. and allied reconnaissance aircraft in the Black Sea; the vulnerabilities of some of the American weapons provided to Ukraine; and the composition and armaments of the nine Ukrainian army brigades being trained by the U.S. and allies for the coming spring offensive. Russian jets forced a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone to crash into the Black Sea on March 14, two weeks after these files were posted.
In addition to documents pertaining to the war in Ukraine, the leaked files included purported copies of the daily intelligence report provided to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley, Central Intelligence Agency reports on leaders of Israel’s Mossad spy service, and intelligence on discussions within the government of South Korea on sales of artillery ammunition to Kyiv. Most of the documents are dated in February and appear to have been posted online shortly after their creation. Many contain details of future operations.
“If some guy on Minecraft Map Discord was able to find these and share them a few days after they first appeared on March 1, there is a pretty good chance that Russian intelligence was able to get a glance at them, too,” Mr. Toler said.
At the margins of some pages are printed markings common to top-secret documents, including the government agency that produced them and the level of classification. Documents include updates from the CIA’s Operations Center, as well as material from a host of other intelligence units.
Those include the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency; the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which analyzes data from spy satellites; the eavesdropping National Security Agency; and the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.
U.S. defense officials said they believe at least some of the images were leaks of documents produced by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which is composed of top military commanders for each of the services and advises the president.
Gen. Milley was briefed Wednesday afternoon about the first batch of leaked documents to surface, as was Mr. Austin, the defense officials said, before the discovery of the latest suspected leaked documents.
The U.S. and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners have been training and equipping nine Ukrainian Army brigades with Western heavy weapons, including the Leopard-2 and Challenger tanks, and Stryker, Marder and Bradley fighting vehicles. Ukraine is separately training several other combat brigades, under the auspices of the army, the national guard, the border service and other security agencies.
The photographs that emerged online earlier this week appear to be of printed presentation slides and maps. Because classified documents can only be printed on approved systems, the U.S. government will likely have some record of who produced them, said Aram Gavoor, associate dean for academic affairs at George Washington University Law School and a national-security expert.
Documents receive a Top Secret designation when U.S. officials believe their disclosure could cause exceptionally grave damage to national security. “That means that the unauthorized release of these could lead to loss of life inside Ukraine,” said Mr. Gavoor. Many of these documents are marked NOFORN—meaning that they cannot be released even to America’s closest allies.
While both U.S. and Ukrainian officials were wary of sharing information with one another early in the war, fearing their plans might be compromised, mutual trust had improved in recent months. It is unclear to what extent this incident will sour exchanges between the two nations.
The war in Ukraine has led to a large volume of regularly updated classified documents that have been shared widely within the U.S. government.
“Keeping in mind that a great majority of classified documents are never leaked, the risk of a leak increases in an environment like this one where the United States is engaging in an unprecedented intelligence, advisory and logistics operation in support of Ukraine,” said Mr. Gavoor, the national-security expert at George Washington University Law School.
Appeared in the April 8, 2023, print edition as 'Pentagon Is Probing Document Exposures Online'.
I think this sows confusion. Puts Russia on edge.. maybe ultimately fake or purposely leaked. I get that this is not for our beautiful minds to figure out. I need someone ( or two) I trust to weigh in on this type of thing. We know we are helping Ukraine with info. What this article means, I don't know.
Medvedev btw has an astoundingly evil mouth. I ran into his latest.
If you don't have a subscription to the WSJ (or anyone else out there who is reading this), let me know, and I'll get the article to you. Here are a few highlights:
"Dozens of newly discovered images viewed by The Wall Street Journal contained highly valuable information for America’s adversaries, particularly Russia."
"The documents, some of which appear to be briefing materials, outline details of the purported locations and operations of Ukraine’s air-defense systems, quantities of each type of air-defense missiles and sobering predictions of when Ukrainian forces would run out of each kind of munition."
"U.S. defense officials said they believe at least some of the images were leaks of documents produced by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which is composed of top military commanders for each of the services and advises the president."
"Most of the documents are dated in February and appear to have been posted online shortly after their creation. Many contain details of future operations." ["shortly after their creation"?]
"“If some guy on Minecraft Map Discord was able to find these and share them a few days after they first appeared on March 1, there is a pretty good chance that Russian intelligence was able to get a glance at them, too,” Mr. Toler said."
I've decided to go ahead and post the whole article so that anyone who wants to read it, can. It's short. Just give me a few mins.
Some of this sunlight is beneficial. The leak will change things for sure, how much and what we don't know. It does not appear to be fake. I wonder if the leak is an anti-war protest as it is across the board somewhat. If we are so good at surveillance, we should be able to get to the bottom of this. Expect across the board tightening. What the actual damage is, I will wait for better minds that I trust to assess.
I wonder if the US is an empire that mistakes itself for a nation? I also wonder if nations exist that are not left-overs from defeated empires? It is wonderful to have the chance to consider what I haven't considered before, to feel the imaginative power of Timothy Sander's revisions. He offers an intimacy with historical complexities that is similar to enlightenment.
I am a great admirer of you (I was an intensive history major Y’55) and Tony Judt. We tend to take WW I or WW II as the start of the reshuffling of the European nationhood board. ‘Ukraine’ has a checkered history from the early days of Kyiv and Rus.
In fact, one needs to go back 500+/- years (or the ‘Dark Ages’) and follow THE LONDON TIMES historical maps of the world. Indeed, I have just watched Robert Greenberg’s (GREAT COURSES) magnificent MUSIC AS A MIRROR OF HISTORY. With extraordinary research of letters and other memorabilia, Dr. Greenberg provides a beautiful historical ballad, with substance sautéed with superb soul.
He provides, to this history professor (1992-2013), a fresh and persuasive insight into the European checkerboard over the past 500 years. Poland?? It was drawn and quartered, and then scotch taped together, far more than pulled pork. Czechoslovakia? Who remembered that 1905 was a pivotal moment in its history? Or the 17th century? What does it mean to be a ‘Czech,’ after Sudetenland in 1938 and the Czech Slovak split in 1991?
As for Italy—-what was Italy when the French arrived and left? How did Napoleon ravage Italy? Cavour and Garibaldi?
Russia seemed like an accordion—shrinking, expanding, a super expansion, and then a post-Soviet Union shrinking. The Baltic states were integral to this musical performance.
All this reinforces—-while Americans, with the exception of the Civil War, have never experienced permanent divisions in the lands acquired over centuries— that Europe has been an historical chessboard with pieces frequently replaced. One might speak of the relative ‘wholeness” of the United Kingdom since the 1707 Scottish agreement, though contemporaries are concerned about the future of Scotland and, perhaps, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Indeed, there was a time when this island nation was physically part of the European continent and elephants were roaming on this locale. Hadrian was a late comer.
Dr.Snyder, do you think WWIII can really be avoided? It seems if Putin continues his war on Ukraine, whether a good idea or not, there are only two outcomes: Ukraine is completely wiped out or WWIII begins. What is any other outcome? Americans need to start climbing on board more quickly with the problem in Ukraine.
I wish there was video with it too. It's easier for me to follow when there is also video. But it's very interesting as always thank you Dr.Snyder.
Vicki, you might find TS's substack post of 2/8/23, helpful: https://snyder.substack.com/p/nuclear-war (audio here: https://snyder.substack.com/p/nuclear-war-audio#details). Also see this one from 7/21/22: "Nazis, Nukes, and NATO Or: what the Russo-Ukrainian War is Not About" (https://snyder.substack.com/p/nazis-nukes-and-nato).
The talk of WWIII is, I think, propaganda, and it obviously has worked. It seems unlikely to me. France and Germany have been so slow to respond to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine that I can't see either Macron or Scholz going to the trouble of getting themselves involved in a world war. And the US still won't send Ukraine the long range weapons it desperately needs for fear of widening the war which, as TS and others have pointed out only emboldens Putin. Remember, too, that these leaders have to answer to their voting public. Going to war means conscription, to which their populations would react negatively. Getting re-elected is what they live for.
But then what happens to Ukrainians? A lot of them are dying and Russia still has a ton of Russian minority soldiers to also massacre .
The unfortunate truth is that Ukrainians will continue to be deported, tortured, and die unless the West acts, and soon. To quote Anne Applebaum, "Putin does not need an 'off-ramp.' He needs to lose. And only when he loses - only when he is humiliated - will Russia's wars of imperial conquest finally come to an end" (https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1528720750898823169?lang=en). Several weeks ago I watched a video excerpt from an interview with I think (?) Benjamin Schmidt, but it might have been someone else. He said that German businesses are eager to get back to doing business with Russia, as if nothing had happened. I will look for it, but don't know if I can find it. This is another reason, BTW, that WWIII is unlikely. And it also shows that Ukrainians are up against not only Russia, but people in the West who don't give a sh!t about whether they live or die, but who think only about profit.
And talking of minorities, we should remember that they have been treated horribly not just by the Russian Federation, but before that, the Soviet Union, and before that, the Russian Empire.
You're doing the right thing by thinking about the Ukrainians and what they've had to cope with.
What I hear you saying is Putin will win... so there will be no nuclear war.
Don't forget that Putin's war is not going well, including internally in Russia. Never mind German businesses, include American businesses, ... all business interests. In the meantime Russia's energy offensive in Europe failed :https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/opinion/putins-energy-natural-gas.html?
Paul Krugman: "First, Russia looks more than ever like a Potemkin superpower, with little behind its impressive facade. Its much vaunted military is far less effective than advertised; now its role as an energy supplier is proving much harder to weaponize than many imagined.
Second, democracies are showing, as they have many times in the past, that they are much tougher, much harder to intimidate, than they look.
Finally, modern economies are far more flexible, far more able to cope with change, than some vested interests would have us believe."
The battle is on militarily and politically. if Putin wins, Europe and the US lose will have to face losing and not only Ukraine, but a lot more-- which you know-- not only, say, Taiwan, but far more importantly, world order at least regarding sovereignty of countries. The UN will lose, the charter meaningless, the UNSC a joke. We surely will see nuclear proliferation in countries that want to protect themselves.
Anne Applebaum is not the only one saying that Putin has to lose. By now leaders know this. The West's immediate arming of Ukraine has not only to to do with the will, but ability (capability/feasibility mobilization). Putin has such problems too. It may come down to a battle of political wills versus which side gets exhausted first and/or who runs out of the means to continue.
But it's not over. The expected Ukrainian offensive is critical as is their will to fight.
"What I hear you saying is Putin will win... so there will be no nuclear war." I am so sorry if this is the way you interpreted my comment. Gosh, and I strive so hard for clarity. Just so I can understand where I went wrong, could you please point out to me exactly what I said that gave you that impression? I'm serious about this, Potter. I try so hard to write clearly, and it is disappointing to me when someone doesn't understand what I'm writing/saying.
Yes, I know Anne Applebaum is not the only one to have said that, it's just that I rather like the way she put it :) Yes, I'm familiar with China and Taiwan and how the war in Ukraine might affect China's decisions.
Paul Krugman: "Second, democracies are showing, as they have many times in the past, that they are much tougher, much harder to intimidate, than they look." I'm not so sure I agree with that. I don't know where you live, but things are a bit parlous here in the US. It's hard for me to be optimistic. Democracy is exceedingly rare in world history, and it never lasts.
Alles Gute, Potter!
I should say if I am sorry for my interpretation, not you. It was my conclusion after you bemoaned the lack of aid and will from France and Germany as well as US reticence . So it won’t come to a world war because Putin will keep on destroying Ukraine. So Vicky asks what will happen to Ukraine? And you answer with more about people in the West not giving a shit and busines chomping at the bit to deal w Russia after emphasizing that Putin needs to lose.
So my pushback is that this is not over. Russia is not winning etc what i said above. I don’t think the nuclear threat will not be there for Putin to use as he is showing desperation. Its not propaganda. But there’s a lot to stop or prevent him from using nukes: firstly his rationality, then our warnings and China’s india and most of the rest of the world. It would be suicidal. But Putin’s fear-mongering obviously works.
I live in one of the original 13 US colonies.
Yes, Rose,…. compromising on the territorial dispute can stop the devastation you describe, along with people moving to the sides which they agree with.
Understand the potential for compromise with Russia, given the lands Russia has annexed in the eastern portion, the main conflict zone. This special operation WAR is opportunity for compromise, for mutually agreed new Red Line for the new era.
Also, for some more insight, consider the history, as shared about circa 1996:
https://www.ucis.pitt.edu/nceeer/1996-809-02-Kuromiya.pdf
The USA is causing the prolonging of this devastating territorial dispute on the other side of Earth from the USA,…. causing more Ukrainians to be killed, and more environmental damage to occur.
Question: Who broke the Nord Stream 2 pipeline?
Scott, how can you choose to say what you say above?
Without hestitation, I disagree.
Without reservation, I call your ''...potential for compromise with Russia, given the lands Russia has annexed...'', your suggestion of drawing ''...new Red Line for the new era'' a horrid suggestion.
Are you suggesting that it is ethical and reasonable to offer other people and the territories they live on to an aggressor? To choose to make the fate of these men, women, and children's lives a bargaining chip choice IS NOT ETHICAL and is not compromise that contributes to a way for humanitarian and political peace; instead, it is rewarding the violent aggressor and choosing to condemn to despotism and worse the men, women and children of the 'give away' territories.
And in this matter of 'annexed' PEOPLE and their territory, is Putin giving them voluntary choice? What is he really giving them? Mass deportation? Violence and intimidation? Political and personal agency, or intimidation and oppression?
Bob.
Yes, given the relevant history since the 1700's of these areas, prudent respects for the perspective of Putin/RRE's(given the power differentials of Russia and Ukraine), and NATO's expansion. As 'bad' as Putin/The RRE's are,…. it's not worth the devastation which has occurred. The 'higher ground' is working for the desired transformation, or truce, in productive peaceful manner, as much as possible. That requires acquiesence, compromise, humbleness/humility of the weaker power, in that Russia can and will be 'reasonable enough', for their neighborhood polarity interests, where reasonable respects and reasonable compromises are given.
This is about neighborhood, and the differences of how nations operate. THIS IS NOT ABOUT UNIVERSAL ETHICS, THIS IS ABOUT POLARITY OF WORLD REGIONS.
Scott, I appreciate this additional perspective, but I continue to firmly disagree, both in fact and in my human sense of being human.
History is a conceptual practice. There is not a separate 'historical reality' that exists like any living thing exists and like the Earth or its moon exist. As a conceptual practice, historical cognition provides reference points of awareness of human choices and actions and consequences and, often, within additional consequence of events, such as involving other living things and or geological events.
Ethical awareness is distinctively part of our living beings, and it matters to each and every person, because it is part of our awareness of choosing and acting in relation to other people. It is part of every person's awareness of human mutuality and being in human relationship.
Within historical analysis are ideas about relationships. These are ideas, these are not ethical awareness. These ideas are abstractions, like your abstractions including 'relevant history', 'power differentials', 'weaker power', 'polarity of world regions', to name some. These abstractions are irrelevant to ethical awareness, which is grounded and has existence in any and every person's experience in relationships to other people and to other living beings. Ethical awareness is living awareness of living mutuality and significance; it can be forcefully overshadowed by obtuse and circular rationalization, but the conscious effort is always apparent and not ever able to extinguish the ethical awareness.
The devastation being wrought on the Ukrainian people and what makes up their communities is conscious devastation, chosen aggression, willful violence, and abstract and selfishly motivated calculus of asserting power and asserting powerlessness. The choices and the actions that proceed and that are manifested by this devastation and the inhumanity of its character are a conscious chosen calculus that consciously obscures and tortures ethical awareness. There is no and there never has existed a political or geopolitical sense of world and humanity that brings these choices of devastation and dominion within ethical awareness.
The self-defense of the Ukrainians by Ukrainians and with support of others from other distant human communities is an ethical awareness expression. It is an expression of humanitarian and humanistic living in the real world. It expresses clear and simple lessons about self-defending and self-understanding and mutuality in the face of consciously directed murderous violence against people and their communities.
Would you submit yourself and your community to Putin's aggression? Would you oppose being supported by distant people in distant places if you chose to self-defend rather than submit to it? Would you want some calculus of geopolitical abstraction about weaker powers and stronger powers to turn you and your community into political pawns, to have your life and your neighbors' lives compromised into despotic subjugation, because the potential devastation seemed to 'someone' 'somewhere' as TOO much, 'it's not worth the devastation', to use your words?
What human living is not relevant? Not anyone living is irrelevant; that is ethically repugnant, a not ethical assertion.
The devastation experienced by Ukrainians is devastation consciously chosen and applied by Putin et al. Putin et al have consciously and willfully chosen to act to destroy real people - men women children.
This reclamation invasion is about a land grab reclamation. If the Ukrainians want to leave the land, that's fine with Putin,…. he's not trying to make them slaves or to maintain dominion over them. Basically any/all Ukrainian people he's bringing to Russia is for their safety for the circumstance,…. and they'd be welcome to leave if in reasonable safety to return to within Ukrainian jurisdiction, not the Russia annexed zones.
Ukraine is a joint actor in the devastation.
If I lived within Russia's historical lands, I would submit myself in compromise with Putin for mutual productivity. It's the quality of space/environment and society which matter most, with productive peace,…. not merely cultural preferences for being of the liberal West if one happens to prefer.
What human living is not relevant? Powerful question. I'll let you answer it.
To this:
Would you want some calculus of geopolitical abstraction about weaker powers and stronger powers to turn you and your community into political pawns, to have your life and your neighbors' lives compromised into despotic subjugation, because the potential devastation seemed to 'someone' 'somewhere' as TOO much, 'it's not worth the devastation', to use your words?
Answer: YES.
Ukrainians brought on their own devastation by their own aggression countering Russian influence within Ukraine, not being humble for the conflict situation with Russia.
'Sovereign nation' does not apply in this case for Ukraine,… there's highly valuable historical Russian land involved. The political involvement of Ukraine with The West which involves aggressive efforts for the reduction of Russian involvement in Ukraine is a main reason for the Russian re-clamation of Russia's historical lands within the modern era Ukraine borders, emphasis on the southern-half-eastern portion.
I disagree.
What responsibility does Putin et al of Russia have in exerting influence within Ukraine? Not any! Putin and the Russian state lack the legal responsibility; they have no extra-territorial jurisdiction in Ukraine, which in fact, in very plain fact, did the necessary actions to be recognized internationally, be protected by and be included within the UN Charter and as a UN member.
Humility?! Do you know what humility is? Humility is an ethical awareness of mutualities of character, condition and circumstances that, in turn, engender respect for others. It is an acknowledgement of respect; it is not at all submission nor self-subordination nor appeasement. It is a choice, an ethical choice of relationship. The Ukrainians were not disrespectful of the Russian people nor of the sovereignty of Russia as a nation; while being pressured by many foreign nations' leaders, Ukrainians have done what people everywhere do, i.e., the work they can do to better understand each other and each others needs and strong interests, while at the same time they consciously work to give form and function to their national character and governance mechanisms.
Having read and listened to Prof Snyder and presumably conducted your own due diligence in researching the historical record, where in the world do you stake your claim "'Sovereign nation' does not apply in this case for Ukraine...."? How can you claim that there is legitimate evidence "for the Russian reclamation of Russia's historical lands..."?
And much more to the point is your apparent approval of Putin et al choices, is that correct? And, do you agree or do you disagree with the assertion that both the annexations and the invasion by Russia are not legal in any sense in international law? Do you agree or disagree that the aggression is an international crime and that by choice Putin is supporting crimes against humanity by his forces in Ukraine? Are you appalled by Putin supporters who are kidnapping Ukrainian citizens and are you appalled by the deportation of these kidnapped men, women and children into Russia, all with Putin's explicit approval? Do you see any humility in Putin, in his supporters, and if so, how?
Do you believe, as your assertions and claims suggest, that Putin's vision and annunciation of his neighborhood are the final, factual word here, that he chooses 'history' for everyone?
Bob, I know some people in Ukraine. Life is bearable, life goes on. The Kherson to Luhansk regions are the main battle zones, I don't know people in the Russian-annexed portions on the mainland. I know people in Crimea,…. Crimea is nice, Russia is taking good care. People have to choose their sides. Russia is taking care of Russia's interests in their historical lands, countering the social/political/militaristic advances of The West. Compromise or continue devastation in Ukraine. Compromise brings peace, good peace, productive peace, enjoyable peace. Make the best of the situation, in humbleness/humility, rather than going for broke.
This is saddening Scott.
Humanity is absent in Putin's quest for despotic dominion and ruthless repression, through atrocity and murder, through every sort of criminal behavior against Ukrainians of any age, infants, children, adults, the old. I hesitate to ask more questions of you.
The historical character and choices of national leaders in matters of both domestic civil affairs and international relations demand reform in many ways. Reform is a matter of personal choice and collective will and determination.
The maliciousness, the mistakes, the deliberate choices to falsify and mislead and subordinate do not constitute cause, not for anyone, for perpetuating, especially choosing to perpetuate, any or all of them.
Fix what needs fixing. Help your neighbor. Use ethical awareness to the best of capacity in all endeavors.
In the face of any aggression, never submit and always defend.
Be well.
Thank you for this excellent clarification of empire as the principle for understanding European wars. I feel vindicated in my belief, since day one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they have to be defeated. I would also love to hear you explain why Sweden (im Swedish) and the rest of The Nordics want to be European! Is it that Sweden was an empire of sorts until 1632, got defeated and realized that other ways of operation would be more beneficial (they are)?
Putin wasted his leverage over Europe, which no longer relies on Russia for gas, German minister says.
ProtectDemocracy as autocrats make lousy neighbors ✌🏻
The Ukrainian resistance will hopefully keep free not only Ukrainians, but also help make free Russians.
It’s not in Russian near future to be free..even Ukrainians don’t understand..there are many who having lived with rampant corruption don’t understand that western governments have to attend to democratic process and can’t make things happen by dictat or bribe
The contention that integration comes from compensatory action to address decline from losing empires (through defeat in wars) although is well argued, I would suggest that the key word here is 'decline'. Talking of losing empires connects integration theory to the world history of empires -- but this is a moot point. 'DECLINE' -- whatever reason this happened -- for empires and non-empires [not all EU members lost empires, did they? some lost a few colonies, but hardly empires that gave them advantages] was the driving force for integration. Trade was important not because it was pacifying, but it allowed growth and reversed decline.
A REQUEST FOR BETTER SOUND, IF THAT'S POSSIBLE, PLEASE, DR SNYDER...
Your voice kept oscillating between close and audible, and then distant and barely audible, as if you had turned away from the mike.
Added to that, as you turned away, you seemed to drop your voice and rush the end of the sentence, so that it became actually inaudible.
I have listened twice, and didn’t do any better on the second try.
Also, those of us listening from overseas, or who have English as a second language, probably have more difficulty than those familiar with the accent and speech tones.
You may find it of interest that as an Australian/UK English speaker, I find you speak so fast I have to literally grit my teeth and strain to hold maximum concentration for an hour! There's no three-second out-times at the end of key points for us to detach then reconnect. I know Americans tend to speak faster, but are you faster even than the American average? Are you trying to fit in the maximum in the time available? Or, once you start, does it just keep coming in a single stream of consciousness? I'm interested to know...
Agree... about the sound on this ( see my comment below) was unusually hard for me. I had to go over and over certain sections and it was impossible to understand. I think Prof Snyder could be more conscious of where the mike is. He must be walking around. Holding the mike would be helpful. The sound equipment itself is not too sophisticated it seems. The room also reverberates as one gets father from the mike. Also I find that I have trouble with many speakers that I would like to hear because they talk fast in passages and what they say comes as a blur. The back button does not always help and when it's live you don't have it. I wonder at times if it's my mind going- which may be. Some do and have learned to speak more slowly and evenly. The evenly part is important too so that the words are not slow, then fast and rushed, then slow then fast again. I don't imagine that this is easy for a speaker and to maintain one's personality or personal style, but it's important. (BTW I have similar problems with Peter Pomerantsov's lectures- important ideas)
I hope this feedback is helpful rather than just critical. The consciousness of communicating, in this case important ideas that one wants to get across ( and needs to) is important. For sure, I am, I think we all here are, thankful for this sharing such as it is.
Prof. Snyder - These are important ideas to communicate. The sound was so bad that i could not make out everything you said. I think you were getting near and then far from the mike, walking around maybe because you faded in and out. it would be very helpful to have a transcript or a summary of this talk. My takeaway is that this is a war that needs to be fought and Putin must lose it for even Russia to win at all. There is no winning otherwise. I think the Euros need to take that on board perhaps more deeply… as we all do, here too.
More Ukrainians are being killed due to USA military support, which is prolonging the war, … whereas a more peaceful compromise would plausibly-possibly have been achieved a year ago. The USA is prolonging this war.
I'm familiar with Russian history.
There are limits to what is acceptable.
Donbas-Kherson-Crimea are within the limits of acceptability. Beyond that, not much.
I prefer realism over unrealism in this case.
But the problem with realism is precisely that it is not realistic, for all of the reasons I've already given. If not for US and other military support, the WHOLE of Ukraine would have been annexed by now. It is not the US that is prolonging the war. It is Putin, He can leave any time he wants by making up any story he wants, and most Russians wouldn't be any wiser. The reason for this is that most Russians don't have access to anything except Russian state TV and radio, and their internet is limited. TS has written and spoken extensively about this.
Have you considered the consequences of allowing Putin to win this war? They are enormous, and not just for Europe, but the US. TS has written and spoken about this numerous times. The Russia problem IS the China problem.
You write, "Donbas-Kherson-Crimea are within the limits of acceptability." Again, for whom? Scott, I'm trying to get you to think about the hubris of your position. Who has appointed you realists to to move real human beings around on a chess board? In fact, let's forget about chess boards. History is far more complicated than that.
BTW, if you want to reply to a comment: after you click VIEW COMMENT from your email, you need to page down to the comment, and click REPLY, otherwise your replies will show as new comments rather than replies to mine, and other people in the thread won't understand what you're writing about :) Not only that, but your replies won't show up in my email. The only way I'll see them is if I return directly to the post. I made the same mistake once, and at first couldn't figure out why my comment wasn't in the replies with everyone else's. It's bad design.
All the best to you,
Rose
I too had a problem with my replies appearing as new comments. I had to go back, rewrite the replies in the correct space, then delete their appearance as new comments.
I agree about the poor design of this website, not least the paucity of editing tools available to those making comments. I have never had to manage without italic, bold, underline...
I especially don't like not having access to italics, which means that I have to use UPPER case.
Remember, Russia is the big power in that neighborhood. It doesn't want NATO jurisdiction over the prime real-estate of Donbas-Kherson-Crimea, at a minimum, which was part of Russia, the country, from the 1700's till about the start time of the USSR, circa 1917-1922. Russia is insisting on a separate polarity from The West for their space. Russia will also have to compromise with nearby regions. I'm sharing my idea of arbitration to get on with peace,… and respecting multi-polarity of the world, - major powers multi-polarity.
What "Russia" wants keeps moving. It seems they want Ukraine. Ukraine is a sovereign country and shows it wants democracy, not autocracy and totalitarianism, its own identity and to make its own choices. If it's true that "Russia" (Putin) did not want NATO at its door, Putin is going about this in a very counterproductive way. NATO was not threatening Putin though that was Putin's perception. The Euros were and are certainly unprepared for this war which surprised many- though for the last decade at least, it should not have. This lecture steps back to look at Russia as an empire that is over but having a hard time about accepting that. As a consequence the Russian Federation will have a hard time ahead hold together. Ukraine, especially including its prime real estate, is fighting for its freedom and sovereignty. Sometimes a war must be fought to get to peace. Your idea is appeasement and the destruction of world order that uses nuclear threats to prevail.
You're not following very well. See what Russia annexed. See the history of Novorossiya since the 1700's through to the USSR. Understand changes, and compromise. Understand polarity, multi-polarity. Understand NATO advancings vs. the Russian RRE/Putin perspective. Understand economic and socio-political influence-matters in the Russian perspective.
Backing Russia in, basically, and assuming jurisdiction of prime real estate which Russia has owned is not going to be tolerated by Russia,…. so, engage in devastation, or compromise.
With the compromise, - a mutually confirmed red-line compromise - , as repeatedly shared in these comments, Ukraine has and will have its freedom and sovereignty.
Btw, Read up on history of Eastern Ukraine / Wild Fields, circa 1996 article:
https://www.ucis.pitt.edu/nceeer/1996-809-02-Kuromiya.pdf
Thanks so much for this presentation! I found it interesting to see in various publications today that russia says Ukraine and others must get on board with a "new world order" - ie, russian spheres of influence regardless of what anyone wants. Appalling of course and so typical. I hope you will at some point say a few things about the meeting between Ukraine and Poland this week. Given their long history I found it all completely fascinating.
Here's how I've understand that Ukraine/Russia neighborhood, based on the history of the region:
Russia had 'Novorossiya' from the late 1700's through till about the USSR, about 1920, which included the Donbas to Crimea region, and some more land around there. Ukraine was a state within the USSR. Russia was/is the most powerful country in that neighborhood. Ukraine was given Crimea within the context of the USSR as a state, not a country.
That's prime real estate. The Donbas was considered a 'heart of Russia'(multiple 'hearts' in Russia btw). The Donbas was a 'wild-fields borderland' of non-nationalists, basically,… besides Ukraine being considered a various 'borderland' per it's name etymology. Russia has had a military base continuously(or nearly so) in Sevastopol since the late 1700's.
The USA meddled in the deposing of Yanukovich who attempted to make a balance with Ukraine, Russia, and the EU.
Ukraine embarked on pushing Russian influence out in favor of the EU. Given the long intimate intertwining of Ukraine and Russia, and the war against the separatists in the Donbas region,….Russia embarked on reclamation of the Crimea and Donbas regions (and through to the south Kherson bank I'd figure).
The Crimea through the Donbas region is prime real estate for Russia,…. Russia won't allow for that region to go under the jurisdiction of The West, by way of Ukraine.
And so, the prudent thing to do is compromise with Russia, to allow Russia that Crimea-Donbas-Kherson region,…. and beyond that Russia will have to make some conscessions with The West/Ukraine/etc.
Let's take the high ground on this in making peace, and respecting Russia's neighborhood space, given Russia's power and history of acquisition.
Sincerely,
Scott
p.s. I'm not a bleeding heart. I seek compromise and peace, giving reasonable respects to all.
The Budapest Memorandum of 1994 recognized Ukraine's territorial integrity, from north to south (including Crimea) and from west to east (including Donbas). Russia was a signatory to that memorandum. Putin has violated that, as well as other treaties since then. And there was a referendum in 1991 in which at least 90% of the Ukrainian people voted to separate themselves from Russia. What about Ukrainian self-determination?
"And so, the prudent thing to do is compromise with Russia" and "to ALLOW Russia that Crimea-Donbas-Kherson region [...]." Prudent for whom? Who exactly is doing this "allowing"? "Let's take the high ground," you say. "Let's" is a contraction of "let us." Who is this "us"? "Us" is the objective case of the nominative "we," the first person plural of the singular "I' and the objective "me." Do you now understand what this sounds like? Where are the Ukrainians in your solution? It's as if they are in the room with you, but instead of talking directly to them, you are talking ABOUT them as if they were things, not people.
"in making peace given Russia's power and history of acquisition." "Russia had 'Novorossiya' from the late 1700's through till about the USSR, about 1920, which included the Donbas to Crimea region, and some more land around there. Ukraine was a state within the USSR. Russia was/is the most powerful country in that neighborhood. Russia acquired Crimea, not Ukraine. Ukraine was given Crimea within the context of the USSR as a state, not a country." OK, yes. but both the U.S. and India were colonies of Britain, and Vietnam and Algeria of France, and African colonies of various colonial powers, etc. And most of the Ukrainian lands were annexed by the Kingdom of Poland in 1569, and right before that, those lands belonged to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. And the eastern part of Belarus, along with the far westernmost part of Ukraine, were annexed by Poland after the Polish-Bolshevik War of 1919-1920. The western and northern parts of Poland used to belong to Prussia/Germany, its middle part with Warsaw belonged to Imperial Russia, and its southern part belonged to the Habsburg Empire, not even to mention the fact that western Ukraine, including Lviv/Lemberg, also belonged to the Habsburg Empire. In short, the history of the world is one in which powers annex, and then lose lands.
"respecting Russia's neighborhood space". Since when has Russia respected anyone ELSE's space? Mon dieu! Imperial Russia annexed every bit of land it could get its hands on, including that large piece of "real estate" east of Lake Baikal, from China. China hasn't forgotten that, BTW. Imperial Russia was so land-greedy that it even moved into Britain's colonies in Asia. The Anglo-Japanese Alliance of 1902 was to prevent Russia from hogging Britain's colonies: "The original British goal was to prevent Russia from expanding in Manchuria while also preserving the territorial integrity of China and Korea" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Japanese_Alliance). And the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907 settled a colonial dispute between Britain and Russia over Persia, which Russia also tried to take.
Ukraine has shared most of its history with Poland, not Russia, which is why Ukrainian vocabulary is closer to that of Polish than Russian. So if any country has a legitimate claim to Ukrainian lands, it's Poland. Yet Poland gave up its claims to Ukrainian territory long ago, just like Britain gave up its claims to India and the U.S., and other powers gave up their colonial claims to various territories. In fact, the oddist thing of all about your claims is that almost the entire history of the 20th century, especially post-1945, has been a gradual winding down of 500 years of colonization. Why in the world should the rest of us, but especially Ukrainians, put up with a petulant child throwing a temper tantrum over his made-up history, and killing, torturing, and deporting Ukrainians in the process?
I'm happy to know you seek peace. All of us do, of course. But as Dmytro Kuleba said last month in an interview, no one wants peace more than the Ukrainian people (https://twitter.com/ronzheimer/status/1634859888559128579?cxt=HHwWhoDQsYSamLAtAAAA).
To Rose Mason,
Your answer to Scott was great! It is very easy to fall into Putin's trap with the desire to be reasonable and compassionate. Putin is neither. The blood of Ukrainians is on him. It is Putin's desire to remake the Russian empire, full stop.
Everything else is a refusal to face the unpalatable truth that Putin is inimical to a free world and needs to be stopped.
He is very clever. Threatening nukes on top of the cost of supporting Ukraine is his way of forcing us to take the easy way out.
We can't take that road. What happens when he attacks again? What happens when Iran, China, North Korea or any other country run by a self styled emperor decides to invade another country?
And what would it be like living in such an uncertain world where everything could be turned upside down by one man's irrational beliefs?
As repeated before, this special operation WAR can give the confirmation of mutual Red Lines, by all powers involved, which will be agreed to, in compromise given the various considerations. It's the road to take.
Putin is tolerable. The RRE's are tolerable. Compromise with annexations,…. and we'll confirmed Red Lines for the new era.
Read this regarding Donbas, from circa 1996, which gives perspective on the issues in the region: https://www.ucis.pitt.edu/nceeer/1996-809-02-Kuromiya.pdf
Not a bleeding heart at all...it’s an aspect of the Substack community that civil conversation prevails..I take your point that US is hardly lily white in all this..true..my fear is that unless Putin is removed he may become the Serb in Sarajevo for our times and knock the devils dance between US and China into something catastrophic...he lives only by maintaining purported threats to moth russia from its natural enemy ..the west...
Spot on ...
Don't know if any of you have seen this. I am so angry right now I'm shaking. From the NYT 4/6/23: "Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation. Classified documents detailing secret American and NATO plans have appeared on Twitter and Telegram." Smart move on the part of the Ukrainians: "But early on during the war, Ukrainian officials were hesitant about sharing their battle plans with the United States, for fear of leaks." https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I used to have a friend from college who possibly worked at the Pentagon (what they said I had no proof). Supposedly that person had a blog on incidences of I believe Russian sleepers within our educational institutions. Ok, I could get on board with that from a few of my own possible personal experiences. However, that person was a strong Trump advocate which I could not get on board with. It really boggled my mind how a reasonably educated person, supposedly at least, in the Pentagon could support Trump especially with somewhat a background on the Holocaus, from German point of view, and Russia. But there seemed to be issues with Hillary Clinton and drone usage. That seems to be resolved now under Biden. Maybe what else is happening is Russian oligarch money exchanged for leaks.
Don’t be angry- it’s unfortunate but true that there are many in US who support Russia..
Yes, depressing as hell. Mostly because Putin has successfully turned around the American Evangelical propaganda during the 1980s from a battle against a militant atheist Communist Russia to now a union with a conservative Christian Russia. Putin is very good at psychological subversion both in Russia and in America.
Am not convinced Putin knows or cares..but these days every extreme element looks to parse and twist simple logic into evidence of some weird conspiracy…
When I stayed in Russia during the late 1990s it was odd to me how quickly Putin was turning militant atheists, and non believers into at least pretending they were devout Russian Orthodox believers. It's a very real issue.
I was in russia in 70s with French company, then in early 2000s...am saddened by his support amongst older poor demographic which has reinvented Stalin as hero...and by those in west who choose to claim it’s not their war, and is only politics...I can’t accept war as politics...I understand that’s a nuance...
John, that was the first thing I thought of. I'm not the kind of person to jump to a conclusion about stories that have just been broken and about which we know little or nothing. I like to wait until more info becomes available. But in this case, what else are we to think?
But I'm not going to take your advice about not being angry :), or rather :(
I'm thinking that the person(s) responsible for this leak will be quickly found. It's hard to do anything like that without being detected. People who work with classified dox are closely monitored.
Am as upset as you…the leaking of such is pretty much act of espionage in time of war…I have this sinking feeling in back on my head that in future US support will become ever more fraught by extreme left/right in US…am in Canada so can’t speak with authority, but to me Biden hasn’t done a great job of explaining the US stance or assuming tacit responsibility of Budapest which contributed to Ukraine vulnerability. That’s an incomplete analysis as Budapest had no teeth, but has been taken for more that it’s worth by some in both Ukraine (US woes Ukraine) and Russia (US is responsible)…however the links between US/Ukraine run much deeper than general public is aware…
how about this:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/us/politics/leaked-documents-russia-ukraine-war.html
Thank you for this, Potter. How distressing.
1.) Of course not just the U.S., but other countries, spy on their own allies.
2.) "The documents show that nearly every Russian security service appears penetrated by the United States in some way." Depressing as it is, we already knew this. Something happened during the Obama administration, didn't it? in the office of the Financial Crimes Network at the IRS, which deals with classified dox? It involved phishing, I think. Oh yes, now I remember. Russia was trying to get info about Russian oligarchs they thought were being investigated. And I think at least some of the requested info was emailed to them. Maybe this is a naive question, but why haven't these offices been cleaned out? The same goes with the Pentagon and the FBI.
I just beetled over to Eliot Higgins's twitter (@EliotHiggins), and he has posted the story. Then I went to Christo Grozev (@christogrozev), and he retweeted another Bellingcat reporter, Aric Toler (link below), writing, "This is what one of the maddest threads..make sure you start from the beginning." I'm haven't read it yet. Am going to get myself comfortable and then have a read. I'm going to stick with people who know a lot about this sort of thing. Will let you know if I come across anything interesting.
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644138707216130050
Take care and thanks again, Potter.
This is good if you can get it:in Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putins-second-front?
Putin’s Second Front
The War in Ukraine Has Become a Battle for the Russian Psyche
By Andrei Kolesnikov
April 7, 2023
Thanks for this. I'll read it tomorrow morning. Here is the Wall Street Journal article I just told you about:
wsj.com
WSJ News Exclusive | Pentagon Investigates More Social-Media Posts Purporting to Include Secret U.S. Documents
Yaroslav Trofimov and Nancy A. Youssef
8–10 minutes
Documents include details on Ukrainian forces, U.S. arms provided to Ukraine
Updated April 7, 2023 8:57 pm ET
The Pentagon is investigating social-media posts that purport to reveal highly classified U.S. government documents on the war in Ukraine and other key international topics, in what could be one of the most dangerous intelligence breaches in decades.
Well over 100 images, marked with “Top Secret” and other classifications indicating they represent highly sensitive U.S.-produced intelligence, were posted in the Discord message board of fans of the Minecraft computer game around March 1. While many of them were deleted recently, open-source intelligence researchers have managed to download more than 60 files.
The documents, which appear to originate from within the U.S. military and intelligence agencies, include details about the disposition of Ukrainian forces, air defenses and military equipment, classified information about arms and support the U.S. has provided to Kyiv in its fight against Russian invaders, and intelligence on internal matters in a variety of nations, including Israel and South Korea.
The Pentagon said Friday night it is reviewing the matter: “The Department of Defense is actively reviewing the matter, and has made a formal referral to the Department of Justice for investigation,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said.
“We have been in communication with the Department of Defense related to this matter and have begun an investigation,’’ a Justice Department spokeswoman said in a statement. “We decline further comment.”
A CIA spokesperson said the agency is aware of the social-media posts and is looking into the matter.
The Wall Street Journal wasn’t able to independently authenticate the documents, but they contain enough detail to give them credibility, and the leak has rattled Pentagon officials. This week, the U.S. has already changed how military personnel access such documents, defense officials said. But Pentagon officials have yet to determine how the documents appeared online or which military installation they could have come from, defense officials said.
Even before the scope of the disclosures emerged, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that Kyiv would take fresh steps to prevent leaks about its planned spring offensive.
Mr. Zelensky said that he convened the country’s top military commanders and security officials on Friday to discuss the planned push to regain the 18% of Ukraine that remains occupied by Russia. The meeting, he added in a statement, also discussed new “measures to prevent leaks of information about the plans of Ukrainian defense forces.”
Aric Toler, head of research and training with the Bellingcat investigative consortium, said he found the cache of new documents on Friday, a day after at least six purported images of classified U.S. documents were published on the Telegram platform by pro-Kremlin war commentators. At least one of these images had been altered—to lower an estimate of Russian casualties and to inflate Ukrainian losses.
Those and some additional images had been posted on the 4chan messaging platform on Thursday.
Dozens of newly discovered images viewed by The Wall Street Journal contained highly valuable information for America’s adversaries, particularly Russia.
The documents, some of which appear to be briefing materials, outline details of the purported locations and operations of Ukraine’s air-defense systems, quantities of each type of air-defense missiles and sobering predictions of when Ukrainian forces would run out of each kind of munition.
Other documents contained detailed information on the schedules and routes of U.S. and allied reconnaissance aircraft in the Black Sea; the vulnerabilities of some of the American weapons provided to Ukraine; and the composition and armaments of the nine Ukrainian army brigades being trained by the U.S. and allies for the coming spring offensive. Russian jets forced a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone to crash into the Black Sea on March 14, two weeks after these files were posted.
In addition to documents pertaining to the war in Ukraine, the leaked files included purported copies of the daily intelligence report provided to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley, Central Intelligence Agency reports on leaders of Israel’s Mossad spy service, and intelligence on discussions within the government of South Korea on sales of artillery ammunition to Kyiv. Most of the documents are dated in February and appear to have been posted online shortly after their creation. Many contain details of future operations.
“If some guy on Minecraft Map Discord was able to find these and share them a few days after they first appeared on March 1, there is a pretty good chance that Russian intelligence was able to get a glance at them, too,” Mr. Toler said.
At the margins of some pages are printed markings common to top-secret documents, including the government agency that produced them and the level of classification. Documents include updates from the CIA’s Operations Center, as well as material from a host of other intelligence units.
Those include the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency; the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which analyzes data from spy satellites; the eavesdropping National Security Agency; and the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.
U.S. defense officials said they believe at least some of the images were leaks of documents produced by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which is composed of top military commanders for each of the services and advises the president.
Gen. Milley was briefed Wednesday afternoon about the first batch of leaked documents to surface, as was Mr. Austin, the defense officials said, before the discovery of the latest suspected leaked documents.
The U.S. and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners have been training and equipping nine Ukrainian Army brigades with Western heavy weapons, including the Leopard-2 and Challenger tanks, and Stryker, Marder and Bradley fighting vehicles. Ukraine is separately training several other combat brigades, under the auspices of the army, the national guard, the border service and other security agencies.
The photographs that emerged online earlier this week appear to be of printed presentation slides and maps. Because classified documents can only be printed on approved systems, the U.S. government will likely have some record of who produced them, said Aram Gavoor, associate dean for academic affairs at George Washington University Law School and a national-security expert.
Documents receive a Top Secret designation when U.S. officials believe their disclosure could cause exceptionally grave damage to national security. “That means that the unauthorized release of these could lead to loss of life inside Ukraine,” said Mr. Gavoor. Many of these documents are marked NOFORN—meaning that they cannot be released even to America’s closest allies.
While both U.S. and Ukrainian officials were wary of sharing information with one another early in the war, fearing their plans might be compromised, mutual trust had improved in recent months. It is unclear to what extent this incident will sour exchanges between the two nations.
The war in Ukraine has led to a large volume of regularly updated classified documents that have been shared widely within the U.S. government.
“Keeping in mind that a great majority of classified documents are never leaked, the risk of a leak increases in an environment like this one where the United States is engaging in an unprecedented intelligence, advisory and logistics operation in support of Ukraine,” said Mr. Gavoor, the national-security expert at George Washington University Law School.
Appeared in the April 8, 2023, print edition as 'Pentagon Is Probing Document Exposures Online'.
Thanks.
I think this sows confusion. Puts Russia on edge.. maybe ultimately fake or purposely leaked. I get that this is not for our beautiful minds to figure out. I need someone ( or two) I trust to weigh in on this type of thing. We know we are helping Ukraine with info. What this article means, I don't know.
Medvedev btw has an astoundingly evil mouth. I ran into his latest.
Potter! I'm afraid this is real. Here is Wall Street Journal journalist Yaroslav Trofimov's twitter thread about it: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1644459346200256512?cxt=HHwWgICznYHEpdItAAAA
If you don't have a subscription to the WSJ (or anyone else out there who is reading this), let me know, and I'll get the article to you. Here are a few highlights:
"Dozens of newly discovered images viewed by The Wall Street Journal contained highly valuable information for America’s adversaries, particularly Russia."
"The documents, some of which appear to be briefing materials, outline details of the purported locations and operations of Ukraine’s air-defense systems, quantities of each type of air-defense missiles and sobering predictions of when Ukrainian forces would run out of each kind of munition."
"U.S. defense officials said they believe at least some of the images were leaks of documents produced by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which is composed of top military commanders for each of the services and advises the president."
"Most of the documents are dated in February and appear to have been posted online shortly after their creation. Many contain details of future operations." ["shortly after their creation"?]
"“If some guy on Minecraft Map Discord was able to find these and share them a few days after they first appeared on March 1, there is a pretty good chance that Russian intelligence was able to get a glance at them, too,” Mr. Toler said."
I've decided to go ahead and post the whole article so that anyone who wants to read it, can. It's short. Just give me a few mins.
Rose
I do have a sub to wsj and thanks.
Some of this sunlight is beneficial. The leak will change things for sure, how much and what we don't know. It does not appear to be fake. I wonder if the leak is an anti-war protest as it is across the board somewhat. If we are so good at surveillance, we should be able to get to the bottom of this. Expect across the board tightening. What the actual damage is, I will wait for better minds that I trust to assess.
I read the article this morning it made me shudder to think about how sloppy someone was. Or worse if it was done on purpose
The video for this lecture by Timothy Snyder can be found on the Program in Contemporary European Politics and Society website:
https://eps.princeton.edu/news/2023/empire-integration-and-ukraine-provides-alternative-historical-trajectory-european-union
I wonder if the US is an empire that mistakes itself for a nation? I also wonder if nations exist that are not left-overs from defeated empires? It is wonderful to have the chance to consider what I haven't considered before, to feel the imaginative power of Timothy Sander's revisions. He offers an intimacy with historical complexities that is similar to enlightenment.
UK post-Brexit is a nation left over from empire.