Heavy things are afoot. I had been busy writing my next unrelated report, when this major situation interrupted, forcing me to delay the regularly scheduled report in order to address the alarming developments. Prigozhin appears to have initiated a coup attempt. Information is still developing constantly so nothing is definitive or confirmed. That’s why I wanted to focus more on the potential causes rather than the speculative and constantly-changing informational noise. But just for those who may be completely unaware of the happenings:
I worked with a Jew decades ago who had been on a kibbutz in israhell for awhile. I asked him about the bacon/pork thing and he told me they raise pigs on concrete platforms so that they aren't "raised on the land". If true just just more proof of their hypocrisy.
Very delicate and complicated situation. I hope this is resolved because infighting like this can lead to serious stability consequences. This is exactly what NATO wants. Do they not see this? This can be resolved after the war.
I could imagine that this is a MOD psyop exactly to "give NATO what it wants", in order to lure them into continuing the conventional counter-offensive and into not carrying out other operations like false flags.
There will be no instability in reality - but the West now has had its wet dream confirmed in its own eyes.
Real damage has been done and Prigozhin will have Russian blood on his hands because of the above.
I see zero possibility of any form of popular or Russian military, Rosgardia, other PMC or any other form of Russian support for the chef. As Mercouris and Christoforou noted - this is an infant throwing a tantrum and breaking furniture.
So much propaganda right now. I saw video of Moscow and all was as usual. My sister-in-law lives in Russia. I will need to hear from her to know what is happening
To troll the West. NATO's grand Operation Babarossa failed miserably and is just going to fizzle out. This may convince the West to throw more soldiers into the meat grinder.
Actually, in all of this, bearing in mind that, as the article points out Prigozhin does not attack Putin, I am in favour of the comment by Larry at sonar21: "However, Prigozhin’s crazed outburst could be an unprecedented Maskirovka move. If you have Russian troops moving in “response” to his call for a coup it could be a ploy to mask the concentration of Russian forces for an unexpected offensive."
I'm not inclined to think he's acting. I do agree with him, however, when he says that Russia is taking way too long to finish this off. The more time Russia takes, the more time it gives for Ukulele and NATO to pull shit, and the more unforced errors can occur.
I understand the viewpoint, yet for many reasons you do not easily give up such very high kill ratios, (all wars are logistic wars) and NATO is struggling to power any industry, let alone a real war effort, let alone to replace what is being lost now. And why now, when so much military sucess is being achieved. It is very odd. I go with crazy or a weird gambit, although I do not see how that would payoff.
Let me get this straight now... all the "hip-hip hurray Ukraine is winning" zipper heads are cheering this alleged (or actual coup) as a major victory for Ukraine... when it is actually a death sentence for Ukraine if this is true--as this head of Wagner is not against Putin and the military for waging war against Ukraine--the head of Wagner is against the Russian MOD generals for not going "full Ghengis Khan mode" against Ukraine and for not impaling all Uke prisoners like Vlad Tepish and for not employing tactical nuclear weapons against NATO? --am I right?
No its good for Russia and time is on Russian side.
If Russia goes to western Ukraine Russia will have to fight with polish army there. Be real man. War is not against ukies, war is NATO-Russia. proxy one. from very beginning.
War is againt US hegemony or US totalitarism over the planet. To be specific western transnational oligarchy vs national governments.
Ukies are just proxy army for NATO just like taliban mujahedeens back in days or Isis atm.
The nuclear power plant will be next. The Russians have allowed the Ukuleles to remain too physically close to it for too long. They should've pushed the Ukulele army further west, away from the plant, sooner
Time is not "on Russia's side" and Russia has wasted plenty of it.
Exactly.more time Russia wastes, more time parasite English have to plot so many scenarios they have already bombed gas pipe line, new bridge, another bridge connecting Ukraine to mainland etc
Russia is expert in turning almost won wars into quagmire and frozen conflict .look at syria.look at Donbass from 2015. Putin is not fit to be president sergie Ivanov or demetri rigozhin should have been President
I would like to think an option you missed, which is. This is all an act to get the ukies excited and rush in somewhere, probably bahkmut and get wiped out, as not too too much has been going on recently.
However, i think hes just broke his brain and needs locking in a nut house. I'd say war breaks some people, but hes just a pr guy that doesnt do any fighting so i doubt thats it.
Also, i thought letting wagner get this big was a bad idea 9 months ago.
Like all of you, I have no idea what the hell is going on with Prigozhin. For the longest time, I've just ignored him because he seemed to be becoming increasingly bipolar and schizophrenic.
The thing that makes me doubt this is psyops is that the costs aren't worth the gain - There are much easier ways to draw Ukrainian troops in along the front lines that don't have the corrosive secondary effects of disrupting Russia's social cohesion, confusing/demoralizing Russia's troops, undermining the country's momentum and progress in the SMO, and generally making Russia's military and political leadership look like neutered clowns.
Could it be Maskirovka? Sure, I guess we'll see. The thing that nags at me though is even if Russia's leadership wanted to root out and cleanse the traitors from their military ranks, they couldn't pick a worse time to do it. Ukraine is bloodied and demoralized, and the next couple of weeks are going to be critical to breaking the back of the counteroffensive in advance of the NATO summit. They can't give the West any meaningful PR wins that can be spun as "progress" to justify doubling down in supporting Ukraine. This is also the window where Russia needs to be hyper-vigilant to pre-empt a NATO nuclear false flag. Who in their right minds within the top echelons of Russian leadership would look at the totality of where we are at this critical juncture and think: "This is the perfect time to cue the actors and do some house cleaning!"
The most logical conclusion is that Prigozhin has gone off the reservation and has become a traitor to his country. For the sake of the world, he needs to be put down immediately. Enough of this shit, already.
The thing that kind of makes me think it is a psyops is that he wasn't dealt with expeditiously when he first started acting out. He was/is allowed to continue ranting and raving and now this alleged coup attempt --- just doesn't pass the sniff test...
But that could also be another example of Putin's softness, and Russia's reticence to enforce what should be obvious red lines. What do Prigozhin's antics really gain for Russia that couldn't be accomplished some other way, and is it worth all of the costs I cited earlier? I don't think so...not by a long shot.
In hindsight, in the Era of Global Internet Trolling, has POTUS Trump or Biden been the "most effective" communicator of American desires and intentions?
The Russian folk see Prig as a kind of Trump, I believe. They are not as easily lead as Western fools with Trump-Derangement-Syndrome.
As for benefits.... Prig is currently the No.1 shared topic among Ukie soldiers and pro-Ukie propaganda networks. He also happens to be the Russian commander who took Bakhmut.
The thing that makes me think it wasn’t a psyop is that the net effect of all this leads much of the emerging pro-Russia world to question the stability of Russia and whether it is prudent to continue along the course of western non-alignment. The Russian government has had substantial success in the diplomatic sphere and would not jeopardize this over some short-term goal of military reorganization through a psyop. Also, Putin doesn’t appear to play those games. His love for his country precludes such nonsense.
I don't think so - Putin should have this fiasco squashed (hopefully) within a week, hopefully by the end of the week-end. Then, shore up the troops, the Russian people and crush the Ukraine and any others that strike at the motherland.
I hope you are right. It is impossible to know if he has the support of the PMCs. Only time will tell. But there’s no other word for Prigozhin than TRAITOR.
There is a more sinister probability. That CIA/Ukraine intelligence services have literally fooled Prigozhin into believing that MOD is out to get him. This would require a very sophisticated network of handsomely-rewarded traitors feeding Prigozhin false narratives and sophisticated communications to appear legitimate when they're actually not. How many of Prigozhin's inner circle would betray him for payoff of $50 million each from CIA? Spending $200 MM to cause a major "internal" problem/distraction for MOD is a cheap bargain for NATO compared to the +$100 billion spent so far.
Prigozhin clearly lost his shit. Nobody needs to get to someone who has lost his shit.
Russia absorbing Wagner into the Russian military - because Russian law does not permit PMCs to fight in Russia - is perfectly legit but is clearly what tipped Prigozhin over the edge.
I genuinely think that this is psyops by the Russian government to confuse the west. No matter how mentally unstable that guy is he's not going to do something that suicidal.
And perhaps, as maskirovka, to expose Russian 5th and 6th columnists. If this was so I'd expect the show to go on for at least several days more to give the 5th and 6th columnists the idea that it would be safe to reveal themselves.
Yesterday, Western media was filled with jubilant headlines about a Coupe against President Putin.
But in less than 12 hours NATO leaders went from celebrating the collapse of Russia to – OH SHIT!
So while NATO leaders watch their scheme to remove Putin crash and burn, the champagne was quickly stashed away and western media directed back to football and tities.
The Ukraine-NATO counter offensive is now decimated by losses.
NATO needed any kind of success for its Vilnius summit by the end of June.
Like making some of the BRICKs nations fold to western pressure during the Copenhagen summit.
A coup would also provide NATO with the an excuse to intervene in the war by letting the NATO air force exercise ”Go Live”.
However the entire coupe was hijacked and stage managed from the Kremlin.
The Wagner Group was invented by Russian intelligence and funded by the Russian Government.
Prigozhin got out of prison by joining the KGB to become the perceived leader of the Wagner Group.
Back in 2022, agents of Western intelligence began swaying Prigozhin about collaborating with the West. Prigozhin let Kremlin know about the pitch and they decided to stage a counter inteligence OP that would present him as a disgruntled patriot launching vicious verbal attacks on Shoigu and Gerasimov.
And even let him pass Intel on the locations of Russian troops to his handlers.
NATO took the bait and decided that Friday was the day of the second Russian revolution.
During the operation, Applebaum wrote in the Atlantic [ https://archive.is/y8Lvj ] that this was a 1917 moment (with fingers crossed).
Weeks, if not months, ago I commented on one of your other articles that they need to do something about that fucken loose cannon before he does something stupid. Well here we are. You can't have people in significant command positions talking that kind of shit publicly. Not one little bit. How they let him go on like that for months is a poor reflection on the MOD really. Should have nipped that loose cannon in the bud a long fucken time ago.
They need to be dismantled completely. Can't have an independent military organization that is capable of being a threat to the state. Should have been dealt with a long time ago.
Prigozhin is not and never has been in a significant command position.
He has zero role in Russian strategy or operations.
Even within Wagner - he has zero role in directing or managing the soldiers. At best, finance and PR.
You clearly have a wrong idea: that the Russia of today and Putin can't tolerate any form of dissent. This policy has failed in Prigozhin's case, clearly, but it is still a good policy.
I don't think the men wo actually run the wagner military would go for this. It's suicide for the troops, on behalf of the marketing clowns ego. They'd frag him before betraying Russia, surely.
Suicide only if there is resistance. But so far it seems my prediction may be accurate that this is an internal setup to cleanse the ranks. Wagner forces are being allowed to proceed for the time being by some higher power
Suicide in the medium term regardless of resistance if history is any guide. Trying a coup doesn't make you seem trustworthy, and there's usually a second round that's worse than the first. Or you just keep having coups forever if you're Pakistan i guess.
What strikes me about this situation is that this is exactly what was 'supposed to' happen, on a larger scale, according to NATO/US planning and covert action. Russia's morale fractures under the strain, etc. we've all heard some version of the intended scenario by now.
This is all too neat a package. I suspect covert action of some sort, whether it's filling Prigozhin's head with nonsense through back channels or offering him something he wants enough to throw the dice like this or who knows what. Too, we've heard whispers and rumours of whispers about how Prigozhin has unofficial lines of communication with a few members of the Ukrainian ruling cabal.
Watch the videos in comments of Slavyangrad. Civilians hanging and chilling around troops who obviously are acting. Taking pictures, a maintenance person sweeping the street near the tanks and army trucks. This is theater. Russians have fantastic sense of humor. Not stupid enough to fall for it. A play to show the idiots in West hoping for a coup what would really happen. MOD in on the psyop .
Prigozhin is an oligarch, was known as "Putin's Chef" and has NO actual military experience. He played a part in the formation of the Wagner "paramilitary" organization but has no real authority or leadership of it. This is psyops and maskirovka, maybe a little overdone, but taking into account the absolute stupidity and arrogance of the West, maybe not.
Very easy to understand. Nato and some strange former atlanticists are now openly talking about a nuke false flag, WWIII or why not a first strike? Two of the worse US warmongers senators yesterday voted a law to activate article 5 and attack Russia( with nukes of course)if this fake false flag happens.
Russian elites are now blackmailed on nuke (see ZE video statement on imminent FF on ZNPP). Nato meeting is in two weeks, ukrops are collapsing on the frontline, though people in the West know if there is no sudden catastrophic event against Russia they are de facto finished, their 16 months narrative will collapse and they after will fall as well. Russians are human beings a lot of VIP people mainly in big cities are afraid and like in the Cuban missile crisis we don't know what kind of secret contacts they may have in the West? I always think that Putin dreams of super nukes weapons was in fact virtual(same for nato) as you never know at the very last moment if the people given the order to strike or counter strike will really do it or not, nobody even VP or Biden can know for sure.Wagner received a go for broke order from the 5th column with almost no choice.
Curiously, I rewatched 'Wargames' from '83 last week, so I managed to understand some of your points.
1. Yeps on Nuclear blackmail/NATO entering on a ZNPP false flag.
2. Yeps on Western countries knowing their entire 'Great Game' is up - or at least greatly curtailed - unless they throw some massive wildcards. [And even then.]. What they bank on is that after the dust settles, they won't be held to account by World authorities for their crimes during it. Not even Bliar or Bush were charged with de facto war crimes.
3. Yes, there will be many high level contacts going on, however no-one can break through the ring of ideologues around BIDEN. Russian oligarchs - same as ALL other Oligarchs around the World - are very well aware that Armegaeddon will come from the USA. Not from Russia. Only America believes its own Nationalist religious BS to THAT extent.
4. It is possible that there never was, or are very few 'hypersonic nukes' - certainly the West is heavily banking on that now. Along with all our lives. I've yet to meet the MAD-denier who would sit down with a suicide bomber in the hope the explosives are dodgy though.
Except in THEORY. Theory can often turn quickly to practice with that kind of attitude though.
5. True, we can hope that sufficient numbers of personnel refuse the order to fire, that only 99.9999% of humans AND OTHER LIFE is wiped out, rather than 100%.
An amusing thought came to me decades ago, it was probably an old sci-fi story I'd read lol, but how would it feel if say ants became technologically advanced, and two huge continental-sized colonies were threatening each other with nuclear WMDs, - with us on top as "collateral damage", lollollollol?
Ah well. I'm not sure a species that develops plans to wipe itself out over which tiny group of oligarchs will get ALL the wealth should really consider itself "intelligent", if you can see what I mean? ;)
Wagner receiving a 'go for broke'... possibly, possibly.
In an ISR environment where troop movements are fairly transparent to the enemy, it's hard to mislead your enemy about the movements themselves. But then, every magician in the world makes his movements right in front of you - and it works because you fail to understand WHY certain movements are being made.
I'm with a guy named Guiseppe Filotto on this one. What I'm looking for here is what kind of troop movements and shifts are being made to "respond" to this situation, and what else those same shifts could be used for. If you've ever fought a Systema opponent (Russian martial art), the most salient thing is the constant surprise of "invisible" strikes that were never invisible, you just thought the positioning was for something else or your attention was drawn elsewhere. It's hard to explain until you face it. It's really disconcerting.
Which is why I'm so very slow to take stuff like this drama at face value. Especially after a long string of inflammatory Wagner videos, followed by punches landing on Russia's enemies.
He sure is walking wayyyy out on that branch, though. Even if it's all fake, the damage being done to Wagner's perception within Russia is going to be real. But then, I think Wagner is a GRU creation, and this sort of erosion of Wagner's standing in Russia as a consequence of their use this way would be a good thing from the Russian State's point of view. Turns a useful but potentially threatening entity into a self-limiting one, burning its future options in order to accomplish its mission now.
Good point about the ISR recording the troop movements. It may be convincing to the West of internal discord rather than reserves being sent to Ukraine. Like the GRU and Russian martial art idea that it could be setting up a trap for the enemy. Prigozhin going nuts just does not make sense to me.
Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Encompasses drones, planes, ground radars, satellites, all of that.
Made more effective by networks that let each platform share that info. Which is more complicated than it looks. And produces issues with “drinking from the firehose.”
Substack knows that USD is becoming worthless then???
Bwahahahahaha
Not very sensible a reply!
Never trust anyone who wont eat bacon.
I worked with a Jew decades ago who had been on a kibbutz in israhell for awhile. I asked him about the bacon/pork thing and he told me they raise pigs on concrete platforms so that they aren't "raised on the land". If true just just more proof of their hypocrisy.
You're yapping crap.
If it's crap it's his (the jew) crap .
No, sorry.
Not so easy to weasel out.
Take responsibility.
If you're just yapping hearsay crap without any direct evidence.
Then it's you yapping crap.
However much you want to blame someone else.
Get it?
Vegans? /s
ROFLMAO.....cracked me up man :D
Putin has Jewish blood too. And so did Hitler.
The sad reality is that this is literally the most accurate explanation of this (and just about all geopolitical) debacle(s).
Thank you for your timely reporting!
Aaaand it's done.
Very delicate and complicated situation. I hope this is resolved because infighting like this can lead to serious stability consequences. This is exactly what NATO wants. Do they not see this? This can be resolved after the war.
There won't be any instability, not for long, as there's Akhmat Regiment & Reserved Soldiers always ready to take over.
The Chechens got snubbed by MOD for tooting their successes too loudly.
They were told to stop recording, off from social media. Then wagner comes, now they were told the same thing.
I could imagine that this is a MOD psyop exactly to "give NATO what it wants", in order to lure them into continuing the conventional counter-offensive and into not carrying out other operations like false flags.
It would be the most idiotic psyop ever. This will get more Russians killed.
"This is exactly what NATO wants."
Or this is exactly what Russia wants NATO to think. IMO, Russia knows the real war has been between Russia and the United States all along.
There will be no instability in reality - but the West now has had its wet dream confirmed in its own eyes.
Real damage has been done and Prigozhin will have Russian blood on his hands because of the above.
I see zero possibility of any form of popular or Russian military, Rosgardia, other PMC or any other form of Russian support for the chef. As Mercouris and Christoforou noted - this is an infant throwing a tantrum and breaking furniture.
The west will false flag Moscow and blame it on Prigozhin.
So much propaganda right now. I saw video of Moscow and all was as usual. My sister-in-law lives in Russia. I will need to hear from her to know what is happening
Moscow is very far from Rostov.
True but what was reported and what was actually happening were not the same. Same for PMC headquarters in St. Petersburg
Do they mean to encircle Crimea?
Nothing is happening. Everyone who thinks its real revolt or sponsored by western globo is just meh...
pure HOLLYWOOD
give oscars to bold guy.
PS just saw how progozhin is talking with some russian generals.
guys it just lame acting for dumb ppl. literally ridiculous
BUT i have no idea why do we need such performances. and do we need at all?
big question.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUa9_QDQsMM
To troll the West. NATO's grand Operation Babarossa failed miserably and is just going to fizzle out. This may convince the West to throw more soldiers into the meat grinder.
Actually, in all of this, bearing in mind that, as the article points out Prigozhin does not attack Putin, I am in favour of the comment by Larry at sonar21: "However, Prigozhin’s crazed outburst could be an unprecedented Maskirovka move. If you have Russian troops moving in “response” to his call for a coup it could be a ploy to mask the concentration of Russian forces for an unexpected offensive."
Putin should've killed Prigozhin months ago, after his first little video.
Which is why I believe he's just acting.
I'm not inclined to think he's acting. I do agree with him, however, when he says that Russia is taking way too long to finish this off. The more time Russia takes, the more time it gives for Ukulele and NATO to pull shit, and the more unforced errors can occur.
I understand the viewpoint, yet for many reasons you do not easily give up such very high kill ratios, (all wars are logistic wars) and NATO is struggling to power any industry, let alone a real war effort, let alone to replace what is being lost now. And why now, when so much military sucess is being achieved. It is very odd. I go with crazy or a weird gambit, although I do not see how that would payoff.
Let me get this straight now... all the "hip-hip hurray Ukraine is winning" zipper heads are cheering this alleged (or actual coup) as a major victory for Ukraine... when it is actually a death sentence for Ukraine if this is true--as this head of Wagner is not against Putin and the military for waging war against Ukraine--the head of Wagner is against the Russian MOD generals for not going "full Ghengis Khan mode" against Ukraine and for not impaling all Uke prisoners like Vlad Tepish and for not employing tactical nuclear weapons against NATO? --am I right?
I just have to say I love the way you write that! :'D
No its good for Russia and time is on Russian side.
If Russia goes to western Ukraine Russia will have to fight with polish army there. Be real man. War is not against ukies, war is NATO-Russia. proxy one. from very beginning.
War is againt US hegemony or US totalitarism over the planet. To be specific western transnational oligarchy vs national governments.
Ukies are just proxy army for NATO just like taliban mujahedeens back in days or Isis atm.
"Be real, man."
The nuclear power plant will be next. The Russians have allowed the Ukuleles to remain too physically close to it for too long. They should've pushed the Ukulele army further west, away from the plant, sooner
Time is not "on Russia's side" and Russia has wasted plenty of it.
Exactly.more time Russia wastes, more time parasite English have to plot so many scenarios they have already bombed gas pipe line, new bridge, another bridge connecting Ukraine to mainland etc
War is and should be against the main plotter of wars -england. .failubg to understand that will bring disaster to all the victims of Anglo pirates
Acting or not, he is one strange cat.
He is a mental case. Dangerous though.
Putin asked prigozhin to do that video. be real, man
Disagree completely.
This is a billionaire man-child throwing a tantrum because his toy is being taken away from him.
Despite popular belief, Putin is not into killing people...
Neither the Russia of today nor Putin work this way.
Then they deserve whatever chaos ensues. Nothing like snatching defeat from the jaws of victory... And an easy victory, at that.
Russia is expert in turning almost won wars into quagmire and frozen conflict .look at syria.look at Donbass from 2015. Putin is not fit to be president sergie Ivanov or demetri rigozhin should have been President
Where can we figure out what the situation is on the ground right now? Telegram?
i unsubbed, unfollowed? wagners telegram today, too crazy
I follow different sites on Telegram and Twitter
Methinks the lady doth protest too much. Mr. Putin wants to be remembered with Princess Olga and her sparrows.
I have seen nothing that would prove that Prigozhin actually runs Wagner.
He is only a figurehead
I would like to think an option you missed, which is. This is all an act to get the ukies excited and rush in somewhere, probably bahkmut and get wiped out, as not too too much has been going on recently.
However, i think hes just broke his brain and needs locking in a nut house. I'd say war breaks some people, but hes just a pr guy that doesnt do any fighting so i doubt thats it.
Also, i thought letting wagner get this big was a bad idea 9 months ago.
Agree with your missed option. I was beginning to think along that line myself.
Like all of you, I have no idea what the hell is going on with Prigozhin. For the longest time, I've just ignored him because he seemed to be becoming increasingly bipolar and schizophrenic.
The thing that makes me doubt this is psyops is that the costs aren't worth the gain - There are much easier ways to draw Ukrainian troops in along the front lines that don't have the corrosive secondary effects of disrupting Russia's social cohesion, confusing/demoralizing Russia's troops, undermining the country's momentum and progress in the SMO, and generally making Russia's military and political leadership look like neutered clowns.
Could it be Maskirovka? Sure, I guess we'll see. The thing that nags at me though is even if Russia's leadership wanted to root out and cleanse the traitors from their military ranks, they couldn't pick a worse time to do it. Ukraine is bloodied and demoralized, and the next couple of weeks are going to be critical to breaking the back of the counteroffensive in advance of the NATO summit. They can't give the West any meaningful PR wins that can be spun as "progress" to justify doubling down in supporting Ukraine. This is also the window where Russia needs to be hyper-vigilant to pre-empt a NATO nuclear false flag. Who in their right minds within the top echelons of Russian leadership would look at the totality of where we are at this critical juncture and think: "This is the perfect time to cue the actors and do some house cleaning!"
The most logical conclusion is that Prigozhin has gone off the reservation and has become a traitor to his country. For the sake of the world, he needs to be put down immediately. Enough of this shit, already.
The thing that kind of makes me think it is a psyops is that he wasn't dealt with expeditiously when he first started acting out. He was/is allowed to continue ranting and raving and now this alleged coup attempt --- just doesn't pass the sniff test...
But that could also be another example of Putin's softness, and Russia's reticence to enforce what should be obvious red lines. What do Prigozhin's antics really gain for Russia that couldn't be accomplished some other way, and is it worth all of the costs I cited earlier? I don't think so...not by a long shot.
In hindsight, in the Era of Global Internet Trolling, has POTUS Trump or Biden been the "most effective" communicator of American desires and intentions?
The Russian folk see Prig as a kind of Trump, I believe. They are not as easily lead as Western fools with Trump-Derangement-Syndrome.
As for benefits.... Prig is currently the No.1 shared topic among Ukie soldiers and pro-Ukie propaganda networks. He also happens to be the Russian commander who took Bakhmut.
Nice PR use, TBH. ;) (Y)
The thing that makes me think it wasn’t a psyop is that the net effect of all this leads much of the emerging pro-Russia world to question the stability of Russia and whether it is prudent to continue along the course of western non-alignment. The Russian government has had substantial success in the diplomatic sphere and would not jeopardize this over some short-term goal of military reorganization through a psyop. Also, Putin doesn’t appear to play those games. His love for his country precludes such nonsense.
So if Ukraine becomes un-demoralised, they are going to charge forward and die again!
Yes but this time they’re going to find a confused force, that’ll bd wondering what’s going on in the rear.
I don't think so - Putin should have this fiasco squashed (hopefully) within a week, hopefully by the end of the week-end. Then, shore up the troops, the Russian people and crush the Ukraine and any others that strike at the motherland.
Fully agree - Prigozhin will lose money/financing if he refuses MOD contract -- his personal ambition makes him a traitor to be executed
He's acting like a Patton
This stunt is going to get a lot more Russians killed.
It has given "substance" to Western fantasies about regime change in Russia, meaning more aid and more weapons.
This isn't about Wagner - this is about Prigozhin's role in it. I'm sure a few of the Wagner people are with him, but I am equally sure most are not.
I hope you are right. It is impossible to know if he has the support of the PMCs. Only time will tell. But there’s no other word for Prigozhin than TRAITOR.
HOLY FOOK
There is a more sinister probability. That CIA/Ukraine intelligence services have literally fooled Prigozhin into believing that MOD is out to get him. This would require a very sophisticated network of handsomely-rewarded traitors feeding Prigozhin false narratives and sophisticated communications to appear legitimate when they're actually not. How many of Prigozhin's inner circle would betray him for payoff of $50 million each from CIA? Spending $200 MM to cause a major "internal" problem/distraction for MOD is a cheap bargain for NATO compared to the +$100 billion spent so far.
Do you really need a CIA op to convince Prigozhin the MOD was out to get him? From his very first videos it was clear that this had to be stopped.
Prigozhin clearly lost his shit. Nobody needs to get to someone who has lost his shit.
Russia absorbing Wagner into the Russian military - because Russian law does not permit PMCs to fight in Russia - is perfectly legit but is clearly what tipped Prigozhin over the edge.
MOD should get him -- for a treason
I genuinely think that this is psyops by the Russian government to confuse the west. No matter how mentally unstable that guy is he's not going to do something that suicidal.
And perhaps, as maskirovka, to expose Russian 5th and 6th columnists. If this was so I'd expect the show to go on for at least several days more to give the 5th and 6th columnists the idea that it would be safe to reveal themselves.
Here's a fully formed version of the maskirovka from https://sonar21.com/prigozhin-will-the-real-slim-shady-please-stand-up/#comment-138106 :
Excerpted:
A. Dane says
26 June 2023 at 02:54
Yesterday, Western media was filled with jubilant headlines about a Coupe against President Putin.
But in less than 12 hours NATO leaders went from celebrating the collapse of Russia to – OH SHIT!
So while NATO leaders watch their scheme to remove Putin crash and burn, the champagne was quickly stashed away and western media directed back to football and tities.
The Ukraine-NATO counter offensive is now decimated by losses.
NATO needed any kind of success for its Vilnius summit by the end of June.
Like making some of the BRICKs nations fold to western pressure during the Copenhagen summit.
A coup would also provide NATO with the an excuse to intervene in the war by letting the NATO air force exercise ”Go Live”.
However the entire coupe was hijacked and stage managed from the Kremlin.
The Wagner Group was invented by Russian intelligence and funded by the Russian Government.
Prigozhin got out of prison by joining the KGB to become the perceived leader of the Wagner Group.
Back in 2022, agents of Western intelligence began swaying Prigozhin about collaborating with the West. Prigozhin let Kremlin know about the pitch and they decided to stage a counter inteligence OP that would present him as a disgruntled patriot launching vicious verbal attacks on Shoigu and Gerasimov.
And even let him pass Intel on the locations of Russian troops to his handlers.
NATO took the bait and decided that Friday was the day of the second Russian revolution.
During the operation, Applebaum wrote in the Atlantic [ https://archive.is/y8Lvj ] that this was a 1917 moment (with fingers crossed).
I disagree completely.
Prigozhin's actions are going to get a lot more Russians killed, and I see zero indications that anyone supports Prigozhin over Putin.
Pure Hollywoodian fantasy. That's Russia, man, not the number one PR country.
Weeks, if not months, ago I commented on one of your other articles that they need to do something about that fucken loose cannon before he does something stupid. Well here we are. You can't have people in significant command positions talking that kind of shit publicly. Not one little bit. How they let him go on like that for months is a poor reflection on the MOD really. Should have nipped that loose cannon in the bud a long fucken time ago.
Wagner and Prig need to fade away for a while, just like how Chechen calming down after became stars in early SMO.
They need to be dismantled completely. Can't have an independent military organization that is capable of being a threat to the state. Should have been dealt with a long time ago.
I don't think the MOD had the ability to rein him in. I think only one person had that ability, if you understand what I mean.
Prigozhin is not and never has been in a significant command position.
He has zero role in Russian strategy or operations.
Even within Wagner - he has zero role in directing or managing the soldiers. At best, finance and PR.
You clearly have a wrong idea: that the Russia of today and Putin can't tolerate any form of dissent. This policy has failed in Prigozhin's case, clearly, but it is still a good policy.
I don't think the men wo actually run the wagner military would go for this. It's suicide for the troops, on behalf of the marketing clowns ego. They'd frag him before betraying Russia, surely.
Suicide only if there is resistance. But so far it seems my prediction may be accurate that this is an internal setup to cleanse the ranks. Wagner forces are being allowed to proceed for the time being by some higher power
Suicide in the medium term regardless of resistance if history is any guide. Trying a coup doesn't make you seem trustworthy, and there's usually a second round that's worse than the first. Or you just keep having coups forever if you're Pakistan i guess.
I can believe a few people in Wagner could be going along with Prigozhin, but I disagree completely that this is some plan.
Real damage has been done.
What strikes me about this situation is that this is exactly what was 'supposed to' happen, on a larger scale, according to NATO/US planning and covert action. Russia's morale fractures under the strain, etc. we've all heard some version of the intended scenario by now.
This is all too neat a package. I suspect covert action of some sort, whether it's filling Prigozhin's head with nonsense through back channels or offering him something he wants enough to throw the dice like this or who knows what. Too, we've heard whispers and rumours of whispers about how Prigozhin has unofficial lines of communication with a few members of the Ukrainian ruling cabal.
I vote Maskirovka. This is what the USA is hoping to see.
Watch the videos in comments of Slavyangrad. Civilians hanging and chilling around troops who obviously are acting. Taking pictures, a maintenance person sweeping the street near the tanks and army trucks. This is theater. Russians have fantastic sense of humor. Not stupid enough to fall for it. A play to show the idiots in West hoping for a coup what would really happen. MOD in on the psyop .
excellent observation! Makes total sense.
Maskirovka by way of Kabuki.
Or, it could be normal Russians refusing to be cowed and making a show of it.
Prigozhin is a mercenary. Wouldn't be too hard for the west to outbid Russia for his services.
Prigozhin is first a patriot. He's a mercenary only available for hire by the Russian govt, no-one else.
Patriot lol
Prigozhin is an oligarch, was known as "Putin's Chef" and has NO actual military experience. He played a part in the formation of the Wagner "paramilitary" organization but has no real authority or leadership of it. This is psyops and maskirovka, maybe a little overdone, but taking into account the absolute stupidity and arrogance of the West, maybe not.
Also with no military or civilian government rank he's very unlikely to be able to gain the loyalty of and command anyone who actually does.
If the West was bidding for Wagner's services, they got taken for a ride.
Yes they did. Seems i overreacted to this whole affair.
Very easy to understand. Nato and some strange former atlanticists are now openly talking about a nuke false flag, WWIII or why not a first strike? Two of the worse US warmongers senators yesterday voted a law to activate article 5 and attack Russia( with nukes of course)if this fake false flag happens.
Russian elites are now blackmailed on nuke (see ZE video statement on imminent FF on ZNPP). Nato meeting is in two weeks, ukrops are collapsing on the frontline, though people in the West know if there is no sudden catastrophic event against Russia they are de facto finished, their 16 months narrative will collapse and they after will fall as well. Russians are human beings a lot of VIP people mainly in big cities are afraid and like in the Cuban missile crisis we don't know what kind of secret contacts they may have in the West? I always think that Putin dreams of super nukes weapons was in fact virtual(same for nato) as you never know at the very last moment if the people given the order to strike or counter strike will really do it or not, nobody even VP or Biden can know for sure.Wagner received a go for broke order from the 5th column with almost no choice.
I read it three times and don't understand it. :-)
Curiously, I rewatched 'Wargames' from '83 last week, so I managed to understand some of your points.
1. Yeps on Nuclear blackmail/NATO entering on a ZNPP false flag.
2. Yeps on Western countries knowing their entire 'Great Game' is up - or at least greatly curtailed - unless they throw some massive wildcards. [And even then.]. What they bank on is that after the dust settles, they won't be held to account by World authorities for their crimes during it. Not even Bliar or Bush were charged with de facto war crimes.
3. Yes, there will be many high level contacts going on, however no-one can break through the ring of ideologues around BIDEN. Russian oligarchs - same as ALL other Oligarchs around the World - are very well aware that Armegaeddon will come from the USA. Not from Russia. Only America believes its own Nationalist religious BS to THAT extent.
4. It is possible that there never was, or are very few 'hypersonic nukes' - certainly the West is heavily banking on that now. Along with all our lives. I've yet to meet the MAD-denier who would sit down with a suicide bomber in the hope the explosives are dodgy though.
Except in THEORY. Theory can often turn quickly to practice with that kind of attitude though.
5. True, we can hope that sufficient numbers of personnel refuse the order to fire, that only 99.9999% of humans AND OTHER LIFE is wiped out, rather than 100%.
An amusing thought came to me decades ago, it was probably an old sci-fi story I'd read lol, but how would it feel if say ants became technologically advanced, and two huge continental-sized colonies were threatening each other with nuclear WMDs, - with us on top as "collateral damage", lollollollol?
Ah well. I'm not sure a species that develops plans to wipe itself out over which tiny group of oligarchs will get ALL the wealth should really consider itself "intelligent", if you can see what I mean? ;)
Wagner receiving a 'go for broke'... possibly, possibly.
The perfidy of the US/UK can’t ever be underestimated
In an ISR environment where troop movements are fairly transparent to the enemy, it's hard to mislead your enemy about the movements themselves. But then, every magician in the world makes his movements right in front of you - and it works because you fail to understand WHY certain movements are being made.
I'm with a guy named Guiseppe Filotto on this one. What I'm looking for here is what kind of troop movements and shifts are being made to "respond" to this situation, and what else those same shifts could be used for. If you've ever fought a Systema opponent (Russian martial art), the most salient thing is the constant surprise of "invisible" strikes that were never invisible, you just thought the positioning was for something else or your attention was drawn elsewhere. It's hard to explain until you face it. It's really disconcerting.
Which is why I'm so very slow to take stuff like this drama at face value. Especially after a long string of inflammatory Wagner videos, followed by punches landing on Russia's enemies.
He sure is walking wayyyy out on that branch, though. Even if it's all fake, the damage being done to Wagner's perception within Russia is going to be real. But then, I think Wagner is a GRU creation, and this sort of erosion of Wagner's standing in Russia as a consequence of their use this way would be a good thing from the Russian State's point of view. Turns a useful but potentially threatening entity into a self-limiting one, burning its future options in order to accomplish its mission now.
All we can do is grab the popcorn and see.
Yeh, this could be cover for Russia to move more troops next to Ukraine.
Good point about the ISR recording the troop movements. It may be convincing to the West of internal discord rather than reserves being sent to Ukraine. Like the GRU and Russian martial art idea that it could be setting up a trap for the enemy. Prigozhin going nuts just does not make sense to me.
What is ISR?
Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Encompasses drones, planes, ground radars, satellites, all of that.
Made more effective by networks that let each platform share that info. Which is more complicated than it looks. And produces issues with “drinking from the firehose.”
Disagree. Doing a sit-in in Rostov doesn't resemble regime change in any way - nor is even Prigozhin saying anything bad about Putin.
This is nothing more than a man-child throwing a tantrum, and a stupid one to boot.
Never before has any form of protest or rebellion been against just a Defense Ministry.
This is unhinged from the get-go.