To investors, Bitcoin holders that previously showed strong-hands are starting to sell their bitcoin. This shouldn’t be a surprise — as the price of bitcoin rises, some percentage of holders are willing to sell their assets to take profit off the table.
There's always a portion of the market that is holding from last bull run but doesn't actually understand the market cycles, so when they see the old ATH get hit again they think that'll be the top again so they sell right at the start of the bull market. Saw the same thing last cycle, saw plenty of people on bitcoin forums in 2020 talking about how they would sell once Bitcoin gets back to $20k, thereby insuring they miss the entire bull run haha instead of waiting just months to make far more money.
It's unlikely that Bitcoin long term holders are willing to move Bitcoin to a single institution for custody via two USD trades, just to pay additional annual fees - especially having been in the position of employing safe secure self-custody for over a year. It's more likely that people will move out of ETFs after a year or two, once they've done their own research.
ETFs are less safe, not more safe. The ETFs are mostly custodied by crypto exchanges, probably with extra institutional security as compared to a regular customer, but still far less safe than holding bitcoin yourself, as most long term holders do. Also selling means paying taxes, so they would lose Bitcoin with this strategy. You also have to pay the small ETF annual fee, again further losing a little money over the long term. So no, this is not what is happening.
Nice research, thanks. Not bad if BTC will move to stronger hands 💪
There's always a portion of the market that is holding from last bull run but doesn't actually understand the market cycles, so when they see the old ATH get hit again they think that'll be the top again so they sell right at the start of the bull market. Saw the same thing last cycle, saw plenty of people on bitcoin forums in 2020 talking about how they would sell once Bitcoin gets back to $20k, thereby insuring they miss the entire bull run haha instead of waiting just months to make far more money.
I haven't looked at the data, but I would assume that a lot of people who are selling BTC are still believers in it.
They know about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergodicity and the importance of not putting too much money in each bet.
They take *some* risk off the table periodically.
This simulation blew my mind and shows why this is important: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1vXAHGIpfc
Could it be that long term holders are just moving their Bitcoin to "safer" ETF's?
It's unlikely that Bitcoin long term holders are willing to move Bitcoin to a single institution for custody via two USD trades, just to pay additional annual fees - especially having been in the position of employing safe secure self-custody for over a year. It's more likely that people will move out of ETFs after a year or two, once they've done their own research.
ETFs are less safe, not more safe. The ETFs are mostly custodied by crypto exchanges, probably with extra institutional security as compared to a regular customer, but still far less safe than holding bitcoin yourself, as most long term holders do. Also selling means paying taxes, so they would lose Bitcoin with this strategy. You also have to pay the small ETF annual fee, again further losing a little money over the long term. So no, this is not what is happening.