While I don’t understand everything you write about, the generals I get. All these sanctions, tit for tat, I have a feeling that if a world war does happen and we are in the thick of things (aren’t we always) we are going to see just who is our friend and who opts out. We will be surprise, angry, and on the short end of the stick in every conceivable way possible. In my lifetime I expect the US to get a really nasty fight, and lose.
Thanks for reading and taking the time to comment! I think that, unfortunately, the odds of the scenario you sketched playing out are fairly good. One of the things that I'm finding difficult to wrap my head around is the surprise part. So much of this was foreseeable... There's one set of options, though, that could perhaps avoid a wider war and I think about it a lot: the possibility that this conflict that we ultimately lose is more economic and financial, rather than kinetic. The US is broke (demand for US debt is falling, especially among foreign entities) and doesn't have the materials it needs to supply a wider war for very long (e.g., metals, rare earths, semiconductors, etc.). There is leverage in this mix for US rivals and perhaps a series of economic levers could be pulled such that the US is materially unable to wage a wider war. Thanks again and hope you have a good weekend, Sasha
While I don’t understand everything you write about, the generals I get. All these sanctions, tit for tat, I have a feeling that if a world war does happen and we are in the thick of things (aren’t we always) we are going to see just who is our friend and who opts out. We will be surprise, angry, and on the short end of the stick in every conceivable way possible. In my lifetime I expect the US to get a really nasty fight, and lose.
Thanks for reading and taking the time to comment! I think that, unfortunately, the odds of the scenario you sketched playing out are fairly good. One of the things that I'm finding difficult to wrap my head around is the surprise part. So much of this was foreseeable... There's one set of options, though, that could perhaps avoid a wider war and I think about it a lot: the possibility that this conflict that we ultimately lose is more economic and financial, rather than kinetic. The US is broke (demand for US debt is falling, especially among foreign entities) and doesn't have the materials it needs to supply a wider war for very long (e.g., metals, rare earths, semiconductors, etc.). There is leverage in this mix for US rivals and perhaps a series of economic levers could be pulled such that the US is materially unable to wage a wider war. Thanks again and hope you have a good weekend, Sasha
Excellent - as usual
Thanks for reading, Rob!