Hi everyone!
Hope you’re doing fine! It’s time for a late weekly update from Ukraine.
Signs are growing that Ukrainian forces have penetrated the first line of Russian defenses along part of the southern front lines in Zaporizhzhia region, and are expanding a wedge in the direction of the strategic town of Tokmak, CNN wrote this week. The Ukrainian General Staff said Friday there had been further success in two areas – towards the village of Novoprokopivka and further east in the direction of another small settlement, Ocheretuvate. Earlier this week, the Ukrainians said they had secured the village of Robotyne. Fighting continues to the south of that village.
The British MoD said that Ukrainian counter-offensive has put Russian forces under pressure in Bakhmut and southern Ukraine. Despite this, Russia’s Western Group of Forces has continued small-scale attacks in the north-east, in the Kupiansk-Lyman sector, and has made some limited local advances.
One of the biggest news that came from Russia last week was the death of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. Intelligence sources in the UK and Ukraine have told that Major General Andrey Averyanov was being discussed in connection with the downing of Prigozhin’s jet. A Russian intelligence chief responsible for the unit that is believed to have carried out the 2018 Salisbury poisonings is under suspicion after the death of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. Western officials believe the Russian President was most likely to have been responsible, with US President Joe Biden saying “there’s not much that happens in Russia that Putin’s not behind.”
Rules of Russian power struggle are brutal and have nothing to do with law and legality - it's win or die. Prigozhin has signed his death sentence in June when he made a coup attempt.
Strongly recommend the article by The Guardian that tells that Russian women fear the return of murderers freed to fight for Wagner - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/19/russian-women-wagner-convicts-war-ukraine . The stories in it are horrifying, but show the deep societal problems inside Russia.
Another great article was published by the New York Times under the title Russia Pushes Long-Term Influence Operations Aimed at the U.S. and Europe. A newly declassified American intelligence analysis says Russian spy agencies are using influence laundering techniques to hide the Kremlin’s involvement in cultivating pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian messages. I found it absolutely important that such big media outlets share these stories. Russia had earlier tried these practices in Ukraine, now it is testing grounds in Western democracies.
Ukrainian economy has been deteriorating as a result of war. Not only has Russia been systematically destroying our export positions such as metallurgy and agricultural products, but also the closed borders during 1.5 years have led to a loss of huge remittances that used to stand at 9-10% of Ukraine’s GDP in the previous years. These money came directly from the workers abroad to their families. Now the workers have returned to Ukraine with the start of the war, many lost their lives at the frontlines, many stayed in the army or at home being unable to return to the jobs abroad. Western support is used to fund the public servants’ salaries and Ukrainian domestic taxes all go to cover the military needs. With lack of investment there is a lack of jobs, businesses complain about the lack of consumers. The deterioration of the economy is the way to weaken the army with time. Mr.Putin knows this.
Ukraine urgently needs strong actions to improve its economy both in short-term and strategically. This can include opening borders or easing restrictions for men to leave, developing the policy proposals for the attraction of investors as soon as the war finishes (insurance guarantees, loans that can come from frozen Russian assets etc). It would be good to promote export opportunities for Ukrianian too. But most important is of course to move with reforms as fast as possible. I have no doubt that Ukrainians are committed to the country, that we can rebuild fast, that we are creative and that many people will come back after the war. But the time to act is now, not sometimes in the future.
There are governmental programs developed to support the population, but they are less than enough. Governmental support for the IDPs is usually less than $100 per month, I know many public servants struggle with salaries (teachrs in the deoccupied Kherson were not getting salaries for 6 months, doctors in Kherson had their salaries cut without exlanation). The explanation exists though: all sectors of our economy have been heavily damaged. By closing people inside the country with no opportunities to work we just get corruption booming and economy deteriorating. I know some gvernment agencies have been working on strategic planning. But the survival mode the government works in is a challenge for this.
As a Ukrainian, I believe that Ukraine cannot be in the position of a begger. We can create the added value and compete for the best quality of products and services. I want my country to be attractive from the point of view of enterpreneurial spirit and opportunities for everyone. This should be the cornerstone for buildng our future economy, not the socialist heritage of staying on constant external support.
By sharing this vision I will remind that Ukraine has celebrated its 32th independence year. It becomes more and more meaningful every year.
Thank you for reading this update and for your support.
Best regards,
Iuliia Mendel
Hi Iuliia, thank-you for your informative updates, I really appreciate them as they give me clarity & a better understanding of what is happening overall in Ukraine. I bought your excellent book last November 2022 and have followed you daily ever since. I wish you, your family & Ukraine every success in the future. My heart and blessings are with you all. 🙏 🤗 🇺🇦 Slava Ukraini
Another terrific update. Thank you!