The final votes are still being counted but on the basis of exit polls and provisional results so far, it looks increasingly certain that Poland’s pro-EU opposition will win the country’s general election and form the next government.
After 8 years of rule by the right-wing populist Law and Justice, the opposition parties vowed to work together to end the deterioration of Poland’s democracy. A coalition of three blocs (centre-right KO, centre-right TD and centre-left NL) will seek to reverse the politicisation of the courts and the media, remove political appointees from state institutions and restore relations with neighbouring countries and the EU.
It's not a result that the public or analysts were expecting. Indeed, the prevailing mood was more of resigned pessimism. At best, most thought that it would be a hung parliament, with neither the current government nor the opposition able to convincingly form a majority. It was an uncomfortable scenario made worse by the prospect that the far-right would be king-makers and could lead to an even more extreme and anti-democratic government.
How to explain the upheaval of the actual result? Quite simply, opposition voters mobilised in unprecedented numbers. Even before the event itself, opposition rallies had proved formidable. The ‘march of a million hearts’ may not have quite lived up to its name, but it came close as even conservative estimates calculated that many hundreds of thousands of people protested on the streets of Warsaw.
Yet in the tense and polarised atmosphere of this election, no one was really sure what this mobilisation meant.
We now know that it presaged the biggest turnout of any election held in Poland since the fall of the Soviet Union. With around 73% of the electorate coming out to vote, this election has powered through the record set by the first semi-free elections, held in 1989 (62.7%), and is a big jump compared to the 2019 general election (61.7%). Individual areas provide even more astonishing numbers, sometimes getting above 90% turnout.
Looking a bit closer at voter motivation, two points stand out. One is that the participation among young people was incredibly high compared to what we’re used to in most of Europe. 68.8% of those aged 18-29 went out to vote and 72.3% of those aged 30-39. In other words, the groups that were the least likely to vote in favour of Law and Justice were highly mobilised and were very close to the national average for turnout. By contrast, turnout among those aged 60+ reached just 67%.
Yes, that’s right, young people were more motivated to come out and vote than older people. It’s a real reversal of our expectations and a testament to what can happen when young people see a government attacking their futures and believe they have an alternative to vote for.
The other point is that abortion and women’s rights were listed as the second most important issue for voters, right alongside national security. In a lesson that is being replicated in many democracies, right-wing culture wars appear to have backfired as conservative attacks on abortion rights have produced major counter-mobilisation. Populist counterparts elsewhere should be asking themselves whether it is wise to start a fight you might not win.
With this result, Poland has delivered the most consequential election for Europe since Macron was first elected in 2017. Just as the French vote six years ago reversed a narrative of populist drift and far-right success via a renewed optimism for liberal democracy and European unity, so Poland’s vote today has done the same.
For every year that Law and Justice has been in charge, Poland has become a more and more difficult partner within the EU. The right-wing party used its power to obstruct decisions at the EU level, opposing or sabotaging agreements on everything from climate to migration. As the EU sought to enforce minimum standards for the rule of law and press freedom, Law and Justice ramped up attacks on the EU at home to deflect from its anti-democratic actions. Germany in particular became a favourite target of populist invective, accusing Berlin of secretly plotting a new conquest of Poland.
Through all this, the government squandered an incredible opportunity for Poland to put itself at the heart of European decision-making, becoming one of the leading countries alongside the big 4 of Western Europe (Germany, France, Italy and Spain). Poland is the only country outside of this quartet that can realistically join the inner club but to get there it needs to engage positively and to present its own solutions, not just snipe from the sidelines.
Under Donald Tusk, the likely next Prime Minister of Poland, the country could be led by someone who is not just pro-EU but who understands the EU’s internal workings better than most, having served as President of the European Council from 2014 to 2019.
For Poland to be a constructive EU member, and potentially a leading one, will be a great boost for the bloc at a time when it will need to bridge East-West divides as part of a new programme of renewal and reform during the coming decade.
Naturally, we shouldn’t get too carried away with the optimism. Multi-party coalitions are often tricky to navigate, the Polish President (who can veto legislation) is still aligned with Law and Justice and there’s a lot of institutional rot and corruption that remains to be cleared out.
But for now, a parliamentary majority in favour of European unity, the rule of law and individual freedom in Poland is undoubtedly good news for Poland and great news for Europe.