Ukraine Update October 23-29, 2023
Hi everyone. I hope you had a good weekend. Here is our traditional weekly update about Ukraine.
Russian army continues to shell Ukraine heavily. Among the suffering frontline areas is my home region of Kherson. Every day, there are reports of dead and wounded civilians from there. I was talking to my mom last Thursday and heard huge explosions. We stopped the conversation because she had to run to the bomb shelter. War makes me feel helpless. The city where I grew up, the villages where I ran barefooted during summers eating cherries and apricots are being turned into ruins and there is nothing anyone in the world can do. Except of, at least, pay attention. I can hardly see any pieces about Ukraine on American TV these days.
People in Kherson say that guided bombs are the most terrible, as the power of their explosions is huge. Russians use them because there is no air defense to stop these weapons.
Putin knows that the attention is focused on the Middle East. Therefore, he has intensified attacks in many places. The biggest battles are happening near Avdiivka, Lyman and Kupyansk in the Donbas. The British intelligence reports that the Russians have lost more than 4,000 people there. The U.S. says that a large number of people have been killed in these battles. But the Russians are continuing their offensive. John Kirby said Ukraine was repelling the Russian assault, but noted that Russia still possesses offensive capabilities and might potentially have tactical gains in the coming months.
Save Ukraine, an NGO that returns children abducted by Russia, announced that Russian officials were misinforming the world about their fate. Russian Children's Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, whose arrest warrant was issued by the ICC in March, held a press conference about the deportation of Ukrainian children. Lvova-Belova said that her team had developed an algorithm for returning children to their parents, that they were cooperating with the Ukrainian side, and that Qatar and the Red Cross were mediating the process.
But Save Ukraine disproves all of this. There is no smooth algorithm, no assistance to parents in searching for and returning their children, no assistance in transferring children to relatives—only obstacles, checks, and hours of interrogation. The Russians demonstratively returned four Ukrainian children out of tens of thousands of the forcibly displaced. And now Qatar, referring to the Russians, claims that only 600 Ukrainian children have been taken out of Ukraine – a clearly false number, as there are many more official statements from deported childrens’ relatives. Lvova-Belova is trying to whitewash Putin’s regime and her own reputation, perhaps as part of the efforts to return Russia to the UN Human Rights Council.
Russia has spent around $167 billion on its full-scale war against Ukraine between February 2022 and August 2023, according to Forbes Ukraine. This includes direct war expenses and lost equipment. Russians are taking heavy casualties every week, but Kremlin seems to view them as expendable.
With these money, Moscow could have built aboutt 24,000 kindergartens across Russia, or over 4,500 maternity wards, or around 17,000 schools, or around 1,300 hospitals, or rebuild 20% of all paved roads in Russia – all according to Ukraine’s authorities’ calculations.
Instead, Russian leadership spends money on bombing Ukrainian kindergartens, maternity wards, schools, and hospitals, destroying almost 120,000 civilian structures overall.
More information is getting out on how Russia is avoiding the sanctions. Since the start of full-scale invasion, Russia’s Rostec State Corporation has ramped up the production of Kh-47M2 Kinzhal supersonic missiles. The manufacturer claims it is harder to shoot down than other guided missiles. One Kinzhal costs Russia $10 million (about 50,000 average Russian old-age pensions).
Despite most of Russia's defense enterprises being under Western sanctions, the contractors of the companies manufacturing the Kinzhal have so far avoided European sanctions. They are still importing crucial missile components directly from EU countries as if nothing had happened. Meanwhile, the family of the CEO of KBM company, which manufactures the Kinzhals for Rostec, is building a life in Europe, The Insider reports
According to the government procurement website, KBM receives Espec environmental test chambers from Moscow-based limited liability company Ostek-Test. In turn, ImportGenius data shows that Ostek-Test has continued to import Espec equipment from Poland even during the war. The goods have been shipped by INTER-TRANS SP. Z O.O. from Siedlice. The Polish authorities are already investigating this situation.
However, the European country that stands out in terms of shipment volumes is Germany. KBM has procured lathes from limited liability company KEB-RUS, a partner of the German company KEB, an authorized supplier of components and developer of industrial automation equipment. During the war, KEB-RUS has continued to import German cables, among other things.
The leaders of the European Union have agreed that the profits generated by the frozen Russian assets will be used to support Ukraine. The political decision has been made, but they are still working on the legal mechanism. It is unknown when this will happen. While we are talking about the EUR 3 billion earned last year, an additional profit is expected next year. These money can and should be used to restore what Russia has destroyed in Ukraine.
Western sanctions have immobilised $300 billion belonging to Russia’s central bank after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year. The lion’s share — €180bn according to the Belgian government — is held at Euroclear, the world’s largest securities depository, headquartered in Brussels.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced on Friday after a summit of EU leaders that there is a political agreement that ultimately Russia must pay for the long-term reconstruction of Ukraine
The newly elected House speaker, who has opposed continued funding for Kyiv, is now insisting on separating it from aid to Israel, leaving its fate uncertain.
That approach is at odds with the one favored by the White House, congressional Democrats and many mainstream Republicans who believe that the best way to ensure funding for both wars is to keep them together in one large package. The $105 billion measure Mr. Biden has requested includes $14.3 billion for Israel and $61.4 billion for Ukraine, as well as funds for Taiwan and border security in the United States. More information can be found here
Ukraine confirms that the maritime grain corridor is still operating. Earlier, there were reports that the sea route to Greater Odesa had been suspended. However, Oleksandr Kubrakov, Deputy Prime Minister for the Reconstruction of Ukraine, denied these statements:
«4 ships are moving in the direction of the Bosphorus, 11 ships have entered the ports of Big Odesa for loading. Today 4 bulk carriers exported almost 130K tons of grain and 10K tons of metal to countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe. The ships left the ports of Big Odesa and are moving through the temporary Ukrainian corridor.
At the same time, 11 civilian vessels called the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi to load almost 225K tons of agricultural and metal products.
A total of 62 vessels used the entry corridor, 37 have already exported more than 1,3M tons of Ukrainian agricultural products and other cargo», - he said.
You can learn more about why the Russian war in Ukraine is happening, why the Russians are trying to destroy Ukraine, as well as my work with President Zelenskyy in my book “The Fight Of Our Lives”, released last year.
Sincerely yours,
Iuliia Mendel,
The Knight Wallace Fellow,
WCEE Distinguished Fellow, 2023-24