Yesterday I published a short article in the Sydney Morning Herald about the security challenges that await us in 2024. You can read part of the piece here, with the remainder at the link at the bottom.
At Duntroon, we were told on morning parades to ‘ponder the day ahead’. It was wise advice. Currently, Australian strategists will be pondering the year ahead for our national security.
In Ukraine, Russia seeks to project an air of inevitable victory with a range of offensive activities across Ukraine. This is important tactically, as they seek to reverse Ukrainian gains from 2023. It is also importantly politically as Russia approaches its 2024 elections, continues its global misinformation campaigns about western patience, and offers a ‘ceasefire’ that allows them to reconstitute their forces for future offensives. But Ukraine’s development of new defensive lines, and longer range strike capacity, will make Russian offensives difficult to succeed.
The trajectory of the war in Ukraine in 2024 will be heavily influenced by whether the U.S. congress can agree on military assistance. While the Germans, Dutch, Danes and others have stepped up support for Ukraine, this will be insufficient to reconstitute the Ukrainian military for future offensives. U.S. assistance will be essential for Ukraine’s 2024 campaigns.
The West has belatedly realized that Ukraine, and other burgeoning conflicts, are wars of industrial systems. Being able to out produce adversaries in equipment and munitions is essential to warfighting and deterrence. The quad-alignment of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea has developed into an Arsenal of Authoritarians. Western nations must make progress in this area in 2024.
The coming year will see a continuation of the conflict on the borders of Israel. Even when Israel tunes down the intensity of combat in Gaza, Hamas will still conduct ground combat and fire rockets into Israel. And Israel will rightly continue to conduct operations to protect its sovereignty and recover hostages.
Read the rest of my Sydney Morning Herald article ($) here.
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Richard Holwill
U.S. Ambassador (Retired)
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