Hello, everyone,
I hope you are enjoying your weekend. It's time for our weekly update about Ukraine.
In this review, I will use two words that politicians, public figures, and the media try to avoid. But these two words are being actively discussed not just in Ukrainian political circles or on international platforms, but also among the people who are very close to the commander-in-chief.
However, before that, I want to share the New York Times article about the situation on the frontline. Russian troops are on the attack, especially in the east. The town of Marinka has all but fallen. Avdiivka is being slowly encircled. A push on Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut, is expected. Farther north, outside Kupiansk, the fighting has barely slowed since the fall.
Seeing how bleak the prospects are, Ukraine is pushing for security guarantees from Western countries. However, there are disagreements there. Mostly they are centered around specific mechanisms that would guarantee that Ukraine doesn’t get invaded by Russia again – for example, Western troops manning the contact line, like in Korea and in Germany during the Cold War. Western countries right now don’t seem to be ready to provide extensive guarantees, with the prospect of possible escalation with Russia scaring them off. A sort of compromise was reached with the UK. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak travelled to Ukraine and signed a security agreement there together with President Zelenskyy. The document was promoted as a big deal, however it was criticized by the public as toothless, bot offering anything that could really stop Russia from launching another attack. Zelenskyy and Sunak even had a public disagreement on whether the document was really providing security guarantees, rather than “assurances”. What I see is that the Western Countries don’t want to use the word “guarantees” when it comes to the prevention of future Russian attacks.
Thus, many representatives of the Ukrainian government and even some in the General Staff are talking about frozen conflict. These are the two words that people are afraid to say in public, but that many are expecting as a way out of the situation. Publicly, Ukrainian officials denied that they would accept a frozen conflict, but in practice, being fully dependent on the West and with huge delays (even absence) of military aid there are no more scenarios for the future.
Russia appears to be doubling down on glide bombs, ballistic missiles and drones to inflict a new wave of destruction on Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure, Al Jazeera reported.
Western sanctions only reduced Russia's imports of military goods by 10% in the first 10 months of 2023, compared to pre-invasion levels. The total value of these purchases reached $9 billion.
President Joe Biden's administration has backed a bill that would seize some of the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to be made available to Ukraine, according to Bloomberg.
Back in Kyiv, the Ukrainian government officially announced the withdrawal of the draft law on mobilization.
Let me tell you about the achievements of the NGO Brave Generation that helps Ukrainian students to get education and mentorship from their Western peers and teachers. The co-founders of the NGO would be very grateful for your donations and any kind of public recognition. In the fall 2022-2023, 39 out of 44 Brave Generation students were accepted into universities across the US and Europe, including prestigious institutions such as Harvard, Cornell, Columbia, the University of Chicago, and the London School of Economics, thanks to the NGOs help. The total amount of $5.1 million was awarded in scholarships.
This current academic term (Fall 2023-2024), 130 students have connected with mentors. Although most are still awaiting admission responses, some of the students have already been accepted to institutions such as Yale, Brown, and the Chicago-Kent School of Law, among others.
For over 15 months, Brave Generation has been providing three types of assistance to participants in its programs, offering Ukrainian youth essential tools and connections to contribute to Ukrainian recovery.
1. Teach Ukraine: Brave Generation covers TOEFL test fees to enable students to apply to universities abroad. While the cost of the test is one barrier, preparation costs are equally an issue. Ukrainian TOEFL preparation programs typically cost between $300 and $500 for a 3–5-month course. Brave Generation subsidizes the cost for students who need linguistic support. Last Fall, 60 TOEFL exams and 32 language courses were covered.
2. Heal Ukraine: Brave Generation offers group and individual therapy with a diverse range of certified professionals, psychologists, and psychiatrists. One of the crucial partnerships is with American Group Psychotherapy Association for group therapy sessions, led by professionals with over 20 years of experience in trauma.
3. Mentor Ukraine: Brave Generation connects Ukrainian students applying to universities abroad with students from Yale, Columbia, and Harvard. The NGO believes in the power of peer-to-peer empowerment and supports in the application process through friendships developed.
Several Ukrainian Members of Parliament have already agreed to take interns from this program to introduce the students to Ukrainian politics and policy-making.
The political cycle in the US is inhibiting the schedule for providing more funding to Ukraine. A deal with GOP House members will be made and the flow of support will come back up. It’s scary and painful to be the country taking the hits and wondering if the west has abandoned you. It’s shameful to be from a country that plays internal politics while Ukrainians die. We will move forward, because too much is at stake for all of us in western democracies. Please hang in there.
https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/weekend-update-63-3-months-of-russian?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=17x3tm