Ze vs. Za. This is how the conflict between President Zelenskyy and the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Valeriy Zaluzhny, is referred to in Ukraine.
But before I tell you the details of this case, I want to say that this Ukraine Update is special and ask you to read it to the end.
So, the conflict between the political and military leaders in Ukraine has been going on for months or even around two years, since it started in the spring of '22. for some time it was invisible and hidden, but the differences are so great that this conflict cannot continue outside the public eye any longer.
Knowing President Zelenskyy, I believe that the dismissal will be very soon, and this is also confirmed by my contacts in various institutions. President Zelenskyy always does things his own way if he thinks he is under pressure. In the case of Zaluzny's dismissal, the reaction of Western partners and civil society, who are trying to support the general, can be taken as pressure. Also, Volodymyr Zelenskyy never does what is expected of him. In this case, I believe that this attitude influenced the postponement of the decision to dismiss the general.
One of the biggest questions is who will replace Zaluzhny. Today, there are two realistic candidates: the current head of military intelligence of the Ministry of Defense, Kyrylo Budanov, and Zaluzhnyi's deputy, Oleksandr Syrsky, who was responsible for the fight in Bakhmut. None of them has a great desire to become commander-in-chief, because no major victories or positive changes are expected at the front this year. In addition, the level of trust in Syrsky is only 33%, but half of the people do not know who he is.
There are many reasons why President Zelenskyy thinks about Zaluzny's dismissal, one of them is that the president and the army commander-in-chief have different views on warfare. The second is that the commander-in-chief has a very high rating if he runs for president or parliament, which makes him a very dangerous opponent in the elections that will come sooner or later (84% of strong support + 12% of support).
It is important that many forces in Kyiv are afraid that the dismissal of Zaluzny could lead to protests, some even talk of an uprising. I don't know how possible this is, but it is obvious that there will be a lot of negative reaction and this will also affect the president's rating. According to closed polls, the strong support for the president on December 24 was less than 30%, while another 19% were included in the section of “support.” About the same number (up to 50%) did not want to see him the President for the second term.
Zelensky has been thinking about elections, both presidential and parliamentary, for many months. There were rumors that he wanted to organize parliamentary elections last fall, then there was a date of March 31 to organize both elections on the same day. But none of this was possible. Now the president is being promised to prepare tools for online voting in the Ukrainian app Diia by July. This means that the president is considering online voting to cover those refugees who are still abroad. However, so far there is no such tool, which was proved by the last vote announced in the same app, where Ukrainians had to vote for the Eurovision candidates. Yesterday, Diia could not withstand the number of people and its work stopped.
In any case, all this will not affect the course of the war. The main things that affect it is the lack of aid and well-dug Russian fortifications. Ukraine is running out of ammunition. Finally, the good news is that the EU is ready to give us the promised 50 billion euros. This money is not all for military aid, but it is extremely helpful at a time when so many top Western politicians are trying to push Ukraine into a frozen conflict. At least, I hope that our military will have enough ammunition and weapons to fight back against the constant attacks of the Russians.
There is information that American politicians may vote for aid to Ukraine before the Munich conference. However, I am not sure whether these predictions can be trusted, although they do come from a political insider in Washington.
The other important news concerns the attacks on journalists that I wrote about earlier. Some of the journalists published photos of men who, according to preliminary information, belong to the law enforcement service, as journalists suspect, to the security service of Ukraine, who were following media workers. It seems to me that in the history of independent Ukraine there have been very few years when journalists did not have a strong confrontation with the security service.
In particular, such years were from 2019 to 2022, when Ivan Bakanov was the head of the service. I do not remember that there were many scandals related to the pressure of the security service of Ukraine on journalists then. However, after Bakanov's replacement, journalists began to have a lot of problems, most of which were not publicly discussed, but these problems have been existing for more than a year under the new leadership. It is also insulting that the security service cannot guarantee the level of cybersecurity that existed under Bakanov. In particular, Russian attacks on Ukrainian electronic systems are very successful and cause great damage, as was the case with Kyivstar, a Ukrainian telecommunications provider, when 24 million Ukrainians lost their data. Cyber attacks on a smaller scale continue. Let's not forget that Russia is waging a hybrid war.
I really appreciate that you have been reading my weekly updates on Ukraine for many months. Since August 2022 (November, in the case of Substack), I have not missed a single week, including holidays, weekends, travels and even when my health was very poor but you didn't know about it. Today, more than 90% of subscribers read every review. I want you to know that I really appreciate it.
And so it was a difficult decision for me to make, but this is my last weekly review. I am thinking about doing reviews only once a month or in case of emergencies.
This is due to many factors in my life, and I hope you understand. It was my pleasure to serve you as an information provider. I tried to include insights and to have explanations of the events that might be hard to understand as much as I could.
At the same time, I would like to tell you my predictions for this year.
A possible scenario of a frozen conflict in the summer or at the end of the year.
Elections are most likely in the fall, with a possible change of political leadership.
Elections in Russia will not bring any changes.
With that, I wish everyone a peaceful sky above their heads.
Truly yours,
Iuliia Mendel
Do what is best for you and those you care. Stay strong! Cheers!
I would like to thank you for your work in bringing your excellent perspective on the situation vis a vis the ruzzian invasion of Ukraine. Be good to yourself, Ryan from Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.