Ukraine's new commander-in-chief has a daunting list of challenges ahead
The announcement of General Valerii Zaluzhnyi's dismissal last week had been some time in coming.
The Ukrainian military commander-in-chief commanded through the darkest hours of 2022 and the successes of the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives. It had become apparent over the past year that Zaluzhnyi's public comment on Ukrainian strategy, his intervention in the mobilisation debate and his inability to forge a military force that could execute a successful counteroffensive in 2023 all factored into his dismissal, announced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on February 9.
Following Zaluzhnyi's dismissal, the commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, was appointed as the new commander-in-chief. At the same time, Zelenskyy also provided him with explicit guidance. It represents an mix of strategic and tactical initiatives, including having more generals visit the front line.
A polarising figure in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Syrskyi therefore has a complex set of challenges before him. He must conduct an aggressive defence of his homeland, destroying Russian forces while preserving and reconstituting Ukraine's military. He must also successfully execute a major program of transformation in a million-person military. These alone are gargantuan challenges.
On top of this he must build a military strategy which closes the growing gap between the desired political outcomes of his president with Ukraine's dwindling military resources. The outcome of the Battle of Avdiivka will provide insights into this. Like Bakhmut, the president appears to not want to give up Avdiivka even if the military situation indicates a withdrawal may now be the best option to preserve the remaining fighters. Not giving up territory and preserving combat forces in the current environment will be very difficult to achieve.
Read the rest of my latest article published at ABC Australia here.