AUKUS shows America doesn’t always care about Europe
It has been quite the week for leader interviews.
I’m beginning this week’s list with Emmanuel Macron’s long interview with The Economist. After giving a two-hour speech in Sorbonne which fell flat, Macron sharpened his lines for this interview, to argue for a changed Europe and a more flexible NATO, the organisation he said was experiencing ‘brain death’ in his last outing with the magazine — a prediction that was shown to be completely wrong.
And this is Macron’s problem. He is undoubtedly the most serious thinker in Europe but he is also wildly inconsistent, so it’s difficult to know whether to believe or trust in the direction of the Macron who says Taiwan is not Europe’s problem, or the Macron who has woken up to concept of ‘economic security,’ essentially falling into line with the Biden Administration’s way of thinking, that manufacturing and critical goods and technologies must be protected at home against an anti-competitive, and increasingly hostile China.
Nevertheless, this is the most cogent offering from Macron to date on how Europe navigates its own course as the superpowers jostle for supremacy.
He has always advocated European independence from the United States and this section particularly struck me.
We’re lucky to have this American administration for Ukraine. It has made an incredible commitment alongside us, being the leading contributor to the economic and capability effort. So many thanks to the Biden administration. After that, whether it was for AUKUS, the withdrawal from Afghanistan or the IRA, Europeans weren’t consulted. Nevertheless, President Biden knows Europe, loves Europe and is an extraordinary friend of Europe. But on closer inspection, the deep system does not always take Europe into account. And, in ten years’ time, faced with these challenges, we Europeans must organise ourselves and be more autonomous, including vis-à-vis the Americans.
After that, the question is what is the American strategy towards China and what is the Chinese strategy towards the Americans? I prefer to choose my relationship with the United States, with China, rather than have it imposed on me by one of the two parties, either pushing me in one direction or pulling me in the other.
I’m linking to the transcript of his full interview rather than the article because it’s worth reading in its entirety and full context.
What Trump would do, in his own words
The other leader interview to read this week is Donald Trump’s with Time magazine.
What is clear from this piece is Trump is determined to override the US justice system. It is the one agenda he has very clearly thought about and set out how he would go about dismantling decisions and processes he doesn’t like.
It might be worth revisiting my interview with Ben Hodges who warned that Trump’s return would be akin to facism and that unlike last time, he has a plan and knows how he will destroy the so-called deep state.
Trump said he would pardon the MAGA insurrectionists whom he called ‘J-6 Patriots.’
On foreign affairs, he suggests his threats about NATO were a negotiating tactic designed to get Europe to pay more. (Something Europe is doing). There’s a very remarkable passage on Israel. Put simply, Trump is no fan of Benyamin Netanyahu.
I had a bad experience with Bibi. And it had to do with Soleimani, because as you probably know by now, he dropped out just before the attack. And I said, “What's that all about?” Because that was going to be a joint and all of a sudden, we were told that Israel was not doing it. And I was not happy about that. That was something I never forgot. And it showed me something. I would say that what happened on—the October 7 should have never happened.
And I happen to think that on the hostages, knowing something about the enemy, and knowing something about people, I think you have very few hostages left. You know, they talk about all of these hostages. I don't believe these people are able or even wanting to take care of people as negotiations. I don't—I think the hostages are going to be far fewer than people think, which is a very sad thing.
But to my mind, the country that should worry the most about what was said in this interview is India. As one figure close to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi put it to me a few weeks ago, ‘Of course Modi is worried about Trump, because under Biden, the India-US relationship has galloped.’
While Biden and Modi have sought to establish India as an alternative to China for manufacturing advanced goods like iPhones and potentially even Elon Musk’s Tesla electric cars, Trump is no fan of that idea either.
Unprompted, he raised what he called India’s unfair trading positoin and likened it to China’s.
Modi is a great guy, and he's doing what he has to do. But we had a case with Harley Davidson, I had Harley Davidson on the White House. I said, “How are you doing? How's business? Very good? Everything's good?” I said, “Just out of curiosity, how do you deal with India?” “Not Well.”
Now you’ve got to remember, this is five years ago, four years ago, they said, “Not well. We can't do business with India, because they charged us such a big tariff, it was over 100%.” And at that price, you know, there's a point at which the consumer breaks and can't buy.
They said, “But they will do anything for us to build a Harley Davidson plant in India. They don't want us to give motorcycles to India, but they do want us to build a plant.” I said, “Well, I'm not going to be very happy with that.”
But that's ultimately what happened. They built a plant in India. And now there's no tax, and I'm saying we're doing the same thing. We're gonna build plants here.
Again, linking to the full transcript.
New Solomons PM may be less overtly pro-China
The result in the Solomon Islands’ election was one watched closely by Australia and China-watchers around the world.
The Solomons flipped support for Taiwan in 2019 and subsequently signed security agreements with China, alarming Canberra.
Manesseh Sogavare, the former prime minister performed poorly but retained his seat. However, he stood aside for Jeremiah Manele who was previously foreign minister.
As Prime Minister, Manele wants to lower the temperature surrounding the Solomons’ relationship with China and the tensions that has produced with its largest neighbour.
But Parker Novak, nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and Indo-Pacific Security Initiative, writes that he is also likely to continue the country’s ‘Look North’ — ie. to Beijing — policy.
Is ‘wacko’ a parliamentary insult?
The man polls predict to be Canada’s next leader, Pierre Poilievre, was booted out of Parliament this week for calling Justin Trudeau a ‘wacko. Prime Minister.’
The insult was deemed unparliamentary. Bedlam ensued as Conservative MPs followed Poilievre out of the chamber.
The incident prompted questioning about what is deemed unparliamentary, by whom and how.
It turns out, that ‘wacko’ can be parliamentary and unparliamentary and depends on the tone and way it is used according to the Speaker’s office.
But there is a set list of banned terms and it contains some glorious entries.
My favourites are:
A bag of wind
Inspired by forty-rod whiskey
Pompous ass
Joker in this House
Stooping to pretty low motives
A dim-witted saboteur
Grovelling in the dirt in order to get an office
Lacking in intelligence
Enjoy this one and do send me yours.
Sarah Snook is a sensation
Another slight cheat to finish this week.
Last weekend I went to see the most amazing play - The Picture of Dorian Gray starring Australia’s Sarah Snook. It was probably the best theatre experience I’ve had since seeing Cabaret.
It was absolutely spellbinding. With the raise of one eyebrow, a curl of a lip and a turn of her head, she morphed into 26 different characters, utterly seamlessly.
The production is modern. Filmed on a mostly empty black stage and screened live on various screens so Snook actually rarely interacts with the audience but with the cameras.
The use of selfie filters to delve into the themes of vanity and ageing were devilishly good.
The show was not perfect. It was too long and demanded too much of Snook who delivered in spades and then some. Her energy and stamina to carry the show solo for two hours was a marvel.
The Picture of Dorian Gray runs for just one more week and if you’re in London, get in and see it.
While Snook won the Olivier for her performance, not all reviews have been glowing. The Spectator hated it and Tatler said the use of technology on-stage was a distraction.
And that’s my list for this week. A little news from me.
I’m pleased to say that for the next few months I’ll be joining Australia’s newest media outlet The Nightly as a Writer-at-Large, filing from London.
My scope is broad and remit wide so please do get in touch if you have story ideas.
On Sunday I joined Times Radio to discuss the week’s big topics in the UK and reviewed the newspapers with Monocole on Monday.
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