Quantum computers: we can't achieve significant code coverage, cyber security or reduction of technical debt with our non-quantum code now - how exactly will we achieve that with 1000 or 10000 q-bits? Address space is far more than the million monkeys at typewriters output...
AI: still totally unclear if any new value is created as opposed to enabling ever more cheating in schools, micromanagement in companies and more pervasive surveillance by governments.
Per Thiel's metric: does AI increase GDP and productivity or reduce it? I'd bet decrease: more "productive" managers but less actual production = lower productivity.
Have been wondering about the AI/productivity thing. I don't think it decreases it, but unclear currently how it increases productivity in the production sense in a big way. Could lead to a lot of frustration as the gap between digital/managerial speed and ability to get things done in the physical world widens.
I like how the guys on The ChatGPT Report put it: AI won’t take your job, but somebody using it will. Our Sales guy already uses it to drastically accelerate emailing customized emails.
Of course, once everyone does it that won’t work, so there is some sort of arms race that may limit the net productivity gain. As with prior technologies, there is likely to be both massive consumer surplus and a hidden “tax” from the increase of spam...
Me waiting for laptop-size quantum computers
Quantum computers: we can't achieve significant code coverage, cyber security or reduction of technical debt with our non-quantum code now - how exactly will we achieve that with 1000 or 10000 q-bits? Address space is far more than the million monkeys at typewriters output...
AI: still totally unclear if any new value is created as opposed to enabling ever more cheating in schools, micromanagement in companies and more pervasive surveillance by governments.
Per Thiel's metric: does AI increase GDP and productivity or reduce it? I'd bet decrease: more "productive" managers but less actual production = lower productivity.
Have been wondering about the AI/productivity thing. I don't think it decreases it, but unclear currently how it increases productivity in the production sense in a big way. Could lead to a lot of frustration as the gap between digital/managerial speed and ability to get things done in the physical world widens.
I like how the guys on The ChatGPT Report put it: AI won’t take your job, but somebody using it will. Our Sales guy already uses it to drastically accelerate emailing customized emails.
Of course, once everyone does it that won’t work, so there is some sort of arms race that may limit the net productivity gain. As with prior technologies, there is likely to be both massive consumer surplus and a hidden “tax” from the increase of spam...
Another great thing to look ahead to!