1.
The Catalan government failed to get Parlament to approve the first reading of its budget yesterday and its President immediately called a general election for May 12. The budget foundered on the refusal of the Comunes party to support the so-called “Hard Rock” project, an enormous casino, hotel and leisure complex planned for the underdeveloped deep south of Catalonia. The vote was very close, 68 to 67. In favour voted ERC, PSC (the PSOE’s sister party in Catalonia) and an independent deputy. Against: the Comunes, Ciudadanos, Vox, Junts, the PP, the CUP and an independent deputy, some strange bedfellows there..
But aren’t the Comunes part of Sumar, the left coalition that governs Spain with the PSOE? What was it doing voting against the PSC?
Yes they are but Catalonia is a separate political space, alliances that work in Madrid don’t always do so here. The Comunes tolerated the Hard Rock proposal while they had Ada Colau as Mayor of Barcelona but with the PSC’s man Jaume Collboni having robbed her of the top job in Catalonia’s capital they felt free to vote against it in the Parlament. Apart from the substance of the Hard Rock issue, that the Communes are against mega-tourism projects that use vast amounts of scarce water, there was an element of “Mate, what goes around comes around”. It feels great when one’s principles coincide with an opportunity for vengeance.
I suppose the election will be all about the national question…
You suppose wrong. The drought and housing are likely to be the key issues, though of course Junts and ERC, the two biggest nationalist formations, will have to do some feigning and flouncing about it. The thing is though is that they are bound at the hip to the government in Madrid until the amnesty law comes into full effect and that might take years if the Supreme Court decides to refer it to the Constitutional Court and/or the ECJ.
That said, the Catalan election means that the national government has abandoned any notion of passing a 2024 budget as the two Catalan nationalist parties would feel obliged to fight hard to show who was able to get the most out of the PSOE and Sumar. Preparations have already started for a 2025 budget to be negotiated this autumn. Fortunately this is not the USA and the 2023 budget can be rolled over with no big problems.
What’s at stake for the national government?
A lot. Pedro Sánchez’s grand strategy to realign Spanish politics is to have the PSOE governing in Madrid while its sister party the PSC governing in Barcelona. And the man he believes can do it is Salvador Illa, the PSC’s leader. Illa was national health minister during the pandemic and was very steady in trying circumstances. He comes across as a firm but fair headmaster who believes we could all do better if we put in the work. He’s the epitome of common sense catalanism, certain of its cultural superiority to the rest of Spain but hostile to secessionism as a mad ideological scheme, as fundamentally uncatalan. Illa as President of the Catalan government leading a PSC coalition with ERC would be the ideal outcome for Sánchez, the high roller who always, so far, has beaten the house.
Regardless of the outcome of the election it’s probably a good thing for the stability of the national government as long as it produces a stable government in Catalonia. With fresh elections years away the two nationalist parties represented in Congress would have little incentive to make life difficult for Sánchez. If it proves impossible to form a new government and a new election is called for the autumn/winter that would complicate matters somewhat for the government as it would make it difficult to negotiate the 2025 budget.
Something else to keep in mind is that there’s also a general election in the Basque Country on April 21 and its result will have a considerable effect on the background music to the Catalan poll in May. The PSOE will be hoping to renew its coalition with the conservative Basque nationalists of the PNV.
And just when we’ve digested the results from Catalonia we’ll have the European Parliament election in June. It’ll be the autumn before politics settles down and we find out whether the national government can get anything done, apart from keeping the far right out of power.
I’m not a citizen so I can’t vote in the May election. If I could, it would go to the PSC. It’s far to the right of where a party with the word “socialist” in its name should be and my own views are closer to those of the Comunes on local and regional issues. But my political priority is to keep the national government in power and the vote of most benefit to the national government is for the PSC.
2.
By the time you read this the amnesty law will probably have been passed in the Chamber of Deputies, it’s to be voted later today. After that it goes to the Senate where it will be rejected and sent back to the Deputies who’ll have to vote to approve it again, sometime in May.
So we’re in for two months of rage from most of the media and the opposition parties. There’ll be talk of the betrayal of Spain, its imminent dissolution, the fall of the monarchy and Christ knows what else. Anglophone “hispanists” will cheerfully confirm this grim prognosis.
Pay no mind to the caterwauling and garment rending. Everything that’s happening in Catalan politics right now is part of the long march of the arrogant 2017 secessionists back to playing their part in politics as usual in what they always refer to not as Spain but as “the Spanish state”.