Let’s talk about Ukraine’s new terrorist attack on the Kerch Bridge before diving into other updates. Why does Putin specifically call it a terrorist attack? Because, as he states, the Kerch Bridge is actually no longer used for military supplies and has not been for many months, and is therefore exclusively a civilian corridor. This
Great expose Simplicius, the West need to feel the force of Russia’s power, militarily and economic, kill the grain deal, establish direct supply Russia’s global allies reliant upon grain, I’m certain Lavrov’s ministry will be attending to the same, meanwhile I pray Russia take full retribution against the arseholes who perpetrate this in the name of statehood, Zaluzhny, Kuleba, the cross dressing pervert Zelinsky, and Budunov with their U.S and U.K handler’s, the Spy bum chum’s all deserve to shake hands and have a direct face to face introduction with Mr Kinzhal… pray it happens… soonest, evil filth they are.
Once the West has exhausted the stock of obsolete arms being "sold" to the Ukranians then support will drop like a rock. It's not really a sale because Ukraine will never be able to pay. Instead the US residents pay via higher prices for essential goods.
Such sabotage is an attempt to induce Russia to occupy more of Ukraine to prevent it's being used to launch attacks. A complete occupation of the coast would cause water-borne drones to dry up.
Jul 18, 2023·edited Jul 18, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Because it is a fucking terrorist attack that was aimed directly at civilians which it succeeded in killing. Look, I'm a pretty fair minded guy. In fact if some Iraqis had decided to blow some shit up here in the US while we were invading, occupying and pillaging their country, I'd have to admit to myself that what's good for the goose is good for the gander. Russia has invaded Ukraine no matter how any of us wish to slice it, and nations at direct war with one another carry out attacks in each others homelands when they are capable. So this was to be expected, however, since it is directed at civilians and not legitimate military targets it qualifies as terror, full stop. I highly doubt those Iraqis I just hypothesized about would've attacked shopping malls in the USA; rather they'd have attempted to destroy American military infrastructure and hardware.
The Ukrainian terrorist regime needs to be taken down ASAP. And BTW - another bird related analogy - the US government will be more than happy (while pretending to be shocked) when the white nationalist nazi-wannabe chickens come home to roost here in a way that no Arab or Muslim would have been able. Wink wink...they're WHITE!!! And, like the January 6th INNNNNSURRECTION, any such attacks will be used to justify more surveillance powers and more draconian and militarized law enforcement capabilities.
Anyone who thinks that all these weapons that are being diverted into unsavory hands in Ukraine won't make their way back to Western Europe, Mexico, the US or Canada is either willfully ignorant or a fucking moron. Al Qaeda from Mujahideen anyone?
What a hot mess. And Dugin is correct, rabies has no cure and the enemy behind all this is deranged. I wish someone would do something about the deranged soon.
Giddy Up they already have the bridge running again. I really love that part of the story. Crassly killing civilians in a car, not a good story. Karma is on the way for those boys.
I know, crazy thought, but when I watch these videos w/all the woods and tree lines I cannot help but wonder about the ticks. If bombs don't get them Lyme disease will.
Beyond the length of the bridge, ability to defend and so forth, a more fundamental issue is that there’s simply no fear of crossing a red line for the very good reason that because there’s been no serious response to anything from NS2, to Darya Dugina, to Kremlin drones, to Belgorad, and now not 1 but 2 attacks on the Kerch bridge. All the key people behind this and all these attacks slept comfortably last night, and will again tonight. Britain in particular continues to pay no price for actions that have been responsible for tens of thousands of dead and wounded Russians. Why on earth would anyone expect them to stop?
thanks simplicius.. excellent coverage on a lot of details... as for the grain deal getting back on track, i can't see it myself... too much water under the bridge.. at some point the gloves have to come off... the west happily sanctions russia a zillion ways to hell and then expects russia to roll over and play along? i can't see it myself... this is all on the west and their sanctions mentality, an obvious form of war that many in the west are unwilling or unable to acknowledge.. i don't think russia gets back on track here at this point...
The advertorial video for the Lancets is unique, or is that very Russian? Here some quotes:
"A super modern enterprise places its machines in the former supermarket. Can you imagine? The smell of potatoes has still been preserved here."
"Here you see how Lansets destroy two S-300 installations at once. The missiles were already in the launch containers, so the fireworks turned out to be noble."
Regards conscription, it worried me when I saw underage teen girls training in a patriotic video. I so hoped that they were going to be Girl Scouts and not future soldiers.
Regards Russian offensive, they learned their lesson when they lost Kharkiv. Now they only take what they can defend whilst weakening the AFU. It may be unpopular amongst action movie lovers but its methodically effective.
On the "grain deal," it's not a matter of "concessions." Rather, it's all about the fulfillment of "promises." Here's what Putin said at the end of his informal press conference on the 13th:
"Q: The deal expires on July 18. How long are we willing to wait for them to start performing?
"Vladimir Putin: As long as it takes to fulfill the promises made to us."
It's about fulfilling the other half of the deal, rather similar to Minsk where Russia waited patiently while the other side took advantage. The cancellation has nothing to do with the bridge attack. Putin and Team had already made their decision.
Dima, of Military Summary channel asks why attack a civilian bridge when the railroad bridge was nearby.
He says some civilians decided to flee. Some used ferry boats. But others drove on the main military roadway (east of Kherson?) and interrupted supply ops. Therefore he speculates UA might attack those areas to take advantage.
"Russia has nothing really to lose as far as I understand, and everything to gain, to the extent that now allowing Ukrainian grain to flood the markets only means that Russia’s own grain becomes far more valuable all over the world."
"For instance, this new Politico article accuses Russia of pulling out of the grain deal on monday, and incredibly does mention the word bridge even once:"
Superb rundown. Thank you once again. My first thought after the latest Kersh attack was: Anti-submarine nets. Admittedly I don't know a darn thing about them other than that they've been used extensively in past wars. I was kind of surprised the Russians weren't using them. I will no doubt be quickly put in my place by some astute Navy guy. It is after all the longest bridge in Europe. Dugin is on target: "And behind him is the West"--just in case the Ukrainians run out of imaginative atrocities. The Empire has personified evil for decades, though shielded by tons of lies and propaganda. Confusion and chaos is The Empire's natural milieu. Nothing should surprise us.
"Russia has nothing really to lose as far as I understand, and everything to gain, to the extent that not allowing Ukrainian grain to flood the markets only means that Russia’s own grain becomes far more valuable all over the world"
I would just like to add that international food prices are one of the few markets that bleed over into Russia's otherwise isolated economy. Food prices surging would mean that yew, they can sell their grain at higher prices internationally, which is good for the exporters, but it also means that they are more incentivised to divert grain from domestic markets causing food price inflation within Russia. So I would say international prices rising creates winners and losers in Russia, the losers being the general population.
I think that Russia has shown incredible patience with the west, and will continue plod away winning the war as a response to more provocations. Winning the war is the single best response that Russia has to the vast majority of western/Ukrainian transgressions. And not just winning, winning on a budget with minimal loss of life, both Russian troops and civilian lives.
There are three audiences that Russia has to consider, the west, the domestic audience, and the rest of the world.
Winning the war is the only thing that will influence the west. It doesn't matter what Russia does or does not do, because the western MSM will spin it into a war crime either way, overton window, lies of omission, etc.
Russia's domestic audience howls for blood every time something like the Kerch bridge happens, and it is a mark of the people's trust in Putin that he remains popular even though he doesn't give into these demands.
Which brings us to the rest of the world. Russia is fighting an existential war against the USA for its survival. But it is also fighting to overthrow western hegemony and usher in a multipolar world. To that end, Russia needs to fight a clean war, be honest in its reporting, minimize civilian casualties, and avoid stooping to the same level as the west. All of which it is doing while still winning.
Russia could respond to the near continuous provocations with a tit for tat, but it wouldn't dissuade the west one iota, might start WWIII, and would hurt Russia's image in the rest of the world. It is both wiser and more difficult than striking back and Russia should keep it up.
Great expose Simplicius, the West need to feel the force of Russia’s power, militarily and economic, kill the grain deal, establish direct supply Russia’s global allies reliant upon grain, I’m certain Lavrov’s ministry will be attending to the same, meanwhile I pray Russia take full retribution against the arseholes who perpetrate this in the name of statehood, Zaluzhny, Kuleba, the cross dressing pervert Zelinsky, and Budunov with their U.S and U.K handler’s, the Spy bum chum’s all deserve to shake hands and have a direct face to face introduction with Mr Kinzhal… pray it happens… soonest, evil filth they are.
Once the West has exhausted the stock of obsolete arms being "sold" to the Ukranians then support will drop like a rock. It's not really a sale because Ukraine will never be able to pay. Instead the US residents pay via higher prices for essential goods.
Such sabotage is an attempt to induce Russia to occupy more of Ukraine to prevent it's being used to launch attacks. A complete occupation of the coast would cause water-borne drones to dry up.
https://science1arts2and3politics.substack.com/p/why-russia-doesnt-want-to-conquer
Because it is a fucking terrorist attack that was aimed directly at civilians which it succeeded in killing. Look, I'm a pretty fair minded guy. In fact if some Iraqis had decided to blow some shit up here in the US while we were invading, occupying and pillaging their country, I'd have to admit to myself that what's good for the goose is good for the gander. Russia has invaded Ukraine no matter how any of us wish to slice it, and nations at direct war with one another carry out attacks in each others homelands when they are capable. So this was to be expected, however, since it is directed at civilians and not legitimate military targets it qualifies as terror, full stop. I highly doubt those Iraqis I just hypothesized about would've attacked shopping malls in the USA; rather they'd have attempted to destroy American military infrastructure and hardware.
The Ukrainian terrorist regime needs to be taken down ASAP. And BTW - another bird related analogy - the US government will be more than happy (while pretending to be shocked) when the white nationalist nazi-wannabe chickens come home to roost here in a way that no Arab or Muslim would have been able. Wink wink...they're WHITE!!! And, like the January 6th INNNNNSURRECTION, any such attacks will be used to justify more surveillance powers and more draconian and militarized law enforcement capabilities.
Anyone who thinks that all these weapons that are being diverted into unsavory hands in Ukraine won't make their way back to Western Europe, Mexico, the US or Canada is either willfully ignorant or a fucking moron. Al Qaeda from Mujahideen anyone?
Simplicius, I missed your intensive posts. Where were you? Drinking coffee somewhere beautiful, I hope?
What a hot mess. And Dugin is correct, rabies has no cure and the enemy behind all this is deranged. I wish someone would do something about the deranged soon.
Giddy Up they already have the bridge running again. I really love that part of the story. Crassly killing civilians in a car, not a good story. Karma is on the way for those boys.
I know, crazy thought, but when I watch these videos w/all the woods and tree lines I cannot help but wonder about the ticks. If bombs don't get them Lyme disease will.
Beyond the length of the bridge, ability to defend and so forth, a more fundamental issue is that there’s simply no fear of crossing a red line for the very good reason that because there’s been no serious response to anything from NS2, to Darya Dugina, to Kremlin drones, to Belgorad, and now not 1 but 2 attacks on the Kerch bridge. All the key people behind this and all these attacks slept comfortably last night, and will again tonight. Britain in particular continues to pay no price for actions that have been responsible for tens of thousands of dead and wounded Russians. Why on earth would anyone expect them to stop?
thanks simplicius.. excellent coverage on a lot of details... as for the grain deal getting back on track, i can't see it myself... too much water under the bridge.. at some point the gloves have to come off... the west happily sanctions russia a zillion ways to hell and then expects russia to roll over and play along? i can't see it myself... this is all on the west and their sanctions mentality, an obvious form of war that many in the west are unwilling or unable to acknowledge.. i don't think russia gets back on track here at this point...
The REMUS600 is designed and made in Australia by the Blue Zone Group in Newcastle. https://bluezonegroup.com.au/product-catalogue/ras/auv/hii-remus-600m-uuv/
The advertorial video for the Lancets is unique, or is that very Russian? Here some quotes:
"A super modern enterprise places its machines in the former supermarket. Can you imagine? The smell of potatoes has still been preserved here."
"Here you see how Lansets destroy two S-300 installations at once. The missiles were already in the launch containers, so the fireworks turned out to be noble."
Regards the Black Sea Grain Deal, I posted https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/black-sea-grain-deal-is-dead-for-now
Regards conscription, it worried me when I saw underage teen girls training in a patriotic video. I so hoped that they were going to be Girl Scouts and not future soldiers.
Regards Russian offensive, they learned their lesson when they lost Kharkiv. Now they only take what they can defend whilst weakening the AFU. It may be unpopular amongst action movie lovers but its methodically effective.
On the "grain deal," it's not a matter of "concessions." Rather, it's all about the fulfillment of "promises." Here's what Putin said at the end of his informal press conference on the 13th:
"Q: The deal expires on July 18. How long are we willing to wait for them to start performing?
"Vladimir Putin: As long as it takes to fulfill the promises made to us."
It's about fulfilling the other half of the deal, rather similar to Minsk where Russia waited patiently while the other side took advantage. The cancellation has nothing to do with the bridge attack. Putin and Team had already made their decision.
Dima, of Military Summary channel asks why attack a civilian bridge when the railroad bridge was nearby.
He says some civilians decided to flee. Some used ferry boats. But others drove on the main military roadway (east of Kherson?) and interrupted supply ops. Therefore he speculates UA might attack those areas to take advantage.
Oh, what a difference one letter can make.
"Russia has nothing really to lose as far as I understand, and everything to gain, to the extent that now allowing Ukrainian grain to flood the markets only means that Russia’s own grain becomes far more valuable all over the world."
I think a "t" would be better than a "w". :)
More bad typos.
"For instance, this new Politico article accuses Russia of pulling out of the grain deal on monday, and incredibly does mention the word bridge even once:"
I think "doesn't" works better. Don't you?
Superb rundown. Thank you once again. My first thought after the latest Kersh attack was: Anti-submarine nets. Admittedly I don't know a darn thing about them other than that they've been used extensively in past wars. I was kind of surprised the Russians weren't using them. I will no doubt be quickly put in my place by some astute Navy guy. It is after all the longest bridge in Europe. Dugin is on target: "And behind him is the West"--just in case the Ukrainians run out of imaginative atrocities. The Empire has personified evil for decades, though shielded by tons of lies and propaganda. Confusion and chaos is The Empire's natural milieu. Nothing should surprise us.
"Russia has nothing really to lose as far as I understand, and everything to gain, to the extent that not allowing Ukrainian grain to flood the markets only means that Russia’s own grain becomes far more valuable all over the world"
I would just like to add that international food prices are one of the few markets that bleed over into Russia's otherwise isolated economy. Food prices surging would mean that yew, they can sell their grain at higher prices internationally, which is good for the exporters, but it also means that they are more incentivised to divert grain from domestic markets causing food price inflation within Russia. So I would say international prices rising creates winners and losers in Russia, the losers being the general population.
RE: Russian red lines.
I think that Russia has shown incredible patience with the west, and will continue plod away winning the war as a response to more provocations. Winning the war is the single best response that Russia has to the vast majority of western/Ukrainian transgressions. And not just winning, winning on a budget with minimal loss of life, both Russian troops and civilian lives.
There are three audiences that Russia has to consider, the west, the domestic audience, and the rest of the world.
Winning the war is the only thing that will influence the west. It doesn't matter what Russia does or does not do, because the western MSM will spin it into a war crime either way, overton window, lies of omission, etc.
Russia's domestic audience howls for blood every time something like the Kerch bridge happens, and it is a mark of the people's trust in Putin that he remains popular even though he doesn't give into these demands.
Which brings us to the rest of the world. Russia is fighting an existential war against the USA for its survival. But it is also fighting to overthrow western hegemony and usher in a multipolar world. To that end, Russia needs to fight a clean war, be honest in its reporting, minimize civilian casualties, and avoid stooping to the same level as the west. All of which it is doing while still winning.
Russia could respond to the near continuous provocations with a tit for tat, but it wouldn't dissuade the west one iota, might start WWIII, and would hurt Russia's image in the rest of the world. It is both wiser and more difficult than striking back and Russia should keep it up.