Building political power to tackle the climate crisis
Presentation given to the ‘Stepping Up Together’ workshop, Melbourne, 9 September 2023
Action required by government
( In general terms. I have long given up being specific about targets and timelines - arguing about these is a complete distraction when we currently don’t have the power to achieve anything in this ballpark)
Cut domestic emissions to net zero by 2030 - 2035, with minimal offsetting
No new coal and gas domestically or for export
Short timetable for the phasing out of existing coal, gas and oil exports
Vastly increased sequestration by nature ( forests, other plants, algae, soil etc)
+/- climate cooling ( my view is that we need to have the power to achieve and demonstrated commitment from government and progress on the above first)
To show global leadership and influence other countries to do likewise
My view is that we should make our existing democracy work for us to achieve the above rather than trying to overthrow it. Which means working within our existing parliamentary system, seeking to to get different people elected and improving the system making it more democratic as we gain power to do so
Why a majority Labor government will not take this action
My political assessment is that Labor are well placed to be returned to government in 2024-25.
However I strongly believe that the current government and a re-elected majority Labor government will not take the above action because:
There is minimal political pressure on them to do so - they do not see Greens and others with an ambitious climate agenda as a real threat to seats held by Labor MPs.
They may see Greens and climate independents/ Teals as a threat in a small number of seats which they will defend but not by taking the above action, instead by campaigning on other issues
In other Labor held seats where Greens and independents will improve their vote but realistically not win they don’t see any threat at all because they will expect that the vast majority of these votes will come back to them as preference votes
They see a higher risk of losing marginal Labor- Liberal seats to the Liberals if they took the above action because of the campaign against taking this action particularly by vested business interests and the right wing media
They may end up sacrificing some seats to the Greens if they see that as the price they need to pay to hold other seats from the Liberals
Greens currently have political power through being in balance of power in the Senate and through our ability to use parliament as a platform for advocacy and a base to build our credibility, political appeal and strength from.
This gives us power to negotiate some changes but not the power to achieve the level of change to achieve the above
There is minimal community pressure on Labor to increase their ambition. Doing more is viewed by the majority in the community as at most ‘nice to have’ rather than essential and expected. Labor have framed themselves as doing more on climate than the Liberal-Nationals did or would do, and there is not a widespread loud, noisy campaign for them to do more. Politics continues to be largely framed as a two party contest where if Labor is doing more than the Liberals then that’s enough to get them over the line
In contrast there are multiple pressures on them to not take the above action:
They are culturally and economically connected to and sympathetic to fossil fuel businesses
They receive donations from these companies
There is a revolving door of personnel between the ALP ( as well as Liberals and Nationals) and the fossil fuel industry
They do not believe that Australia can stay strong economically and that taxation revenues can be maintained over the coming decades without continued export of fossil fuels
They are in denial about the science or massively discount the future and people in the developing world
Technological optimism. They believe that something will save us
They think that economic wealth today (particularly of the rich and powerful) is more important than climate disaster in the future
They think that Australia will be ok for a longer time than other places in the world and discount the lives and wellbeing of people in the developing world today. They are just poor brown and black people whose lives don’t matter as much as us Australians
They under -estimate the impact of climate disaster on Australia
They underestimate the importance and significance of Australia taking action
We are just 1.3% of the world’s emissions. What we do doesn’t matter. China and other populous countries matter
They ignore the fact that we are the world’s biggest exporter of gas and the second biggest exporter of coal, and what the impact on carbon emissions and global fossil fuel use would be if we quickly phased them out. It’s the drug dealers defence. These are scope 3 emissions. They don’t count. So we may as well keep making money out of exporting them while we can, because if we didn’t then someone else would instead
Mainstream media and other cultural influencers reinforce a message that the level of ambition that Labor currently has is sufficient
What to do?
Build political power
Support Greens and climate independent campaigns that have a real chance of winning lower house seats in order to put Labor into minority government after the next election and to build the number of seats beyond that.
Remember what we achieved in 2010 with the minority Gillard government and the Labor-Greens accord. We introduced the price on carbon and carbon pollution fell. It was when the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and Australian Renewable Energy Authority and the Parlimentary Budget Office were established. When Labor needs Greens votes to pass legislation through the lower house then that gives a LOT of negotiating power.
It’s no surprise that the ACT government is the most progressive in the country, including with 100% renewable energy. It’s a Labor- Green government with Green Ministers in key portfolios including Attorney General and Environment.
Build community power
Run campaigns:
that build broadspread support in the community for ambitious action ( and the election to parliaments and councils who are committed to ambitious action)
that build understanding that the current level of ambition is totally inadequate and is leading to disaster
that inspire and give hope that change is possible ( this includes showcasing and amplifying the measures that will mean we can continue to have comfortable and safe lives in a zero carbon society and economy - and in fact that such a society is going to be far more comfortable and safer than run away climate disaster
that build agency and community - give people a sense of shared power (most people want to see change but don’t think they have any agency or power to help achieve it)
Features of these campaigns
Focussed and strategic with a clear theory of change as to the purpose of a particular campaign
We need to live with the dissonance of knowing that urgent action is needed but campaigning in a democracy needs to bring people along and can be slow
Campaign in a way that is personally sustainable - we aren’t going to win this one quickly so we need people to be around and inspired and active in the middle and long term
Campaign in a way which is socially sustainable. No one person can win this alone. We will win as part of a movement. It is people that have to act - whether it’s voting, changing their own lives or actively campaigning so it's important that our campaigns welcome, encourage, support and nurture people; and are welcoming of a diversity of people. We can’t afford to be exclusive - we need as wide a support base as possible