A little bit telegraphic for this evening/morning, and focusing on an update on ground warfare of the last few days… Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina… several Russian attacks were reported over the last few days, some of them quite large in size. None was seriously successful. Essentially, and as mentioned so often: the VSRF has lost its serious offensive capability. It still has got lots of troops and guns, though…
Thanks Tom. I genuinely hoped that the rumours about th 128th were not true. Now that you confirmed them, i am speechless. A firing squad is not enough. I am glad Avdiivka holds.
There are rumours that Syrskyi was the mind behind bakhmut and now behind the southern offensive. Do you know if:
1. It's true.
2. He will be dismissed or moved.
3. How much political interference there is in the ZSU?
1. I heard an opinion that Russians are pinning their hopes in Avdeevka on mud season, as up until now ZSU was mostly relying on dirt roads to supply the troops there. Contrary, VSRF has a good railhead in Donetsk, and plenty of short paved roads from there to the frontline.
How crucial this might be?
2. What do you know about a new railroad the Russians are supposedly building along the shore of the Azov Sea, from Taganrog to Mariupol, and then probably to Berdiansk and Melitopol? When such railroad might be ready?
Nov 5, 2023·edited Nov 5, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Ukraine's Stratcom Center reported that the 128th Mtn Bde incident involved an Iskander; losing assembled infantry to LPGM is quite embarrassing. Mind you, this is pretty much what Russia was trying to accomplish in the Hroza missile attack, so blundering this way after that event is doubly embarrassing.
At some point we have to come to terms with the institutional weaknesses of the ZSU and the lack of training among the mass of soldiers. Ukraine received an absolutely adequate provision of ordnance to conduct ONE strategic offensive. The problem, as *so many* people have pointed out over and over, was that the level of quality and motivation among UFOR officers and troops is a little, but not substantially, better than the RuFOR average. And against a well-prepared and coordinated defense, one needs a lot more than a little.
2 months of training for conscripts (the reported average in the ZSU) is good enough for TDF militias a year ago, but it's not adequate for a shock corps. Several days of NATO "combined arms" training at the company or battalion level - what was actually provided to the "Western-equipped brigades" - was always going to be a joke on top of that. The Soviets knew plenty about combined arms. The Russians, for all their flaws, have been demonstrating better combined arms around Avdiivka than the Ukrainians almost ever have throughout the war. That Ukraine does not have the capacity to conduct proper wartime instruction to staff and enlisted in some form of iterated Soviet doctrine is exactly the glaring problem that NATO should have united in addressing 1.5 years ago. If one must invent some sort of dolchstosslegende, take it from that angle, not the myth that Ukraine was overall starved of equipment.
The proof is in the pudding. Throughout the war, the most rigorous casualty estimates keep putting the loss ratio in personnel between UFOR and RuFOR at around 1.5x in the former's favor, and perhaps the reverse when UFOR is attacking. But even before the summer campaign, we *knew*, could observe, that Russia and Ukraine typically converged on the same tactics and strategies - albeit Ukraine has much higher loss sensitivity and cautiousness. Similar militaries under similar constraints have achieved similar results, and we should fear that Ukraine will never succeed unless we identify what they truly need most. Getting that right matters for more than scoring points on the Internet.
Different results require a fundamental transformation of the responsible institutions. Not reinforcing past failure.
Thanks for the update Tom. Hopefully they ban such decoration ceremonies at or near the frontlines. It also goes to show there are Russian moles who shared the information, but it was a silly thing to do in the first place. I'm also hearing some negative commentary about General Syrski from a twitter account thats been critical of Ukrainian officers https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1720814139600232737?s=20. I wonder if its just the bias of the account (they've always picked on Gen Syrski)or this is the actual sentiment amongst junior officers and rank and file. Or its just the usual criticism that is found in all corporations? Otherwise it looks like Ukraine is really doing best with what they have. The losses the Russians have suffered are shocking.
The Ukrainian army is still very similar to the Soviet army, and we are in many ways similar to the Russian army. It’s infuriating that in the 10th year of the war we still have people who gather military personnel for a holiday to present awards. Earlier, the Russians fired missiles at funerals in Pervomaisky, Grozovoy, Chernigov, Desna and Yavorovsky training ground (Lviv region). But we don’t learn anything and we still laugh at the Russians (Makeevka). They killed the best and most motivated officers and soldiers. These meetings must be stopped, although what am I talking about, Syrsky himself awarded the fighters that day. I would like to write a lot of bad words about those who make decisions, but this will not change anything... Eternal memory to the dead. Heroes do not die.
Tom, are you sure about that counteroffensive near Krasnomikhailovka? It was in a Russian telegram channel of the Kuban (not Cuban) artillerists (which is not a major source of info) but many OSINTs were dismissive of it. It looked to be too much behind the Russian lines. Could have been an old clip.
Alas your report is in fact the only optimistic conclusion about the course of the war. Stupid political games in the USA and constant lamentation about dwarf operations in Israel leave little place for news from the battlefield in Ukraine. But nevertheless ZSU was able again to strike successfully the military plant in Kerch. Glory to ZSU!
Thanks for the update, Tom. I’m deprived of words about the 128th incident. It’s a criminal thing and some head had to roll... but seems it “after the war”, shame!
And what about the RuZZians, with his (own troops) meat grinder tactics with null advances?
The constantly claim for the promised ammo/equipment for Ukraine had to be, by now, a roar. But, hey, army of Angels are in the March, so all things Ukrainian are second rate news...
No one is immune to making mistakes. It was another black day in Ukraine. But the good news can help in that moments. The chuvash battalion was struck with Himars. Rumors says 120 killed and wounded.
Thank for the update, this was in many ways a relief. Except that 128th incident that is. Overall it seems like the situation now is pretty stable except maybe Dnipro area. At least as long as both sides continue to get enough materiale, munitions included. Which is a big If of course.
Thanks Tom. I genuinely hoped that the rumours about th 128th were not true. Now that you confirmed them, i am speechless. A firing squad is not enough. I am glad Avdiivka holds.
There are rumours that Syrskyi was the mind behind bakhmut and now behind the southern offensive. Do you know if:
1. It's true.
2. He will be dismissed or moved.
3. How much political interference there is in the ZSU?
128... Это ужасная новость.
Thanks
Thank you, Tom!
Two questions about logistics:
1. I heard an opinion that Russians are pinning their hopes in Avdeevka on mud season, as up until now ZSU was mostly relying on dirt roads to supply the troops there. Contrary, VSRF has a good railhead in Donetsk, and plenty of short paved roads from there to the frontline.
How crucial this might be?
2. What do you know about a new railroad the Russians are supposedly building along the shore of the Azov Sea, from Taganrog to Mariupol, and then probably to Berdiansk and Melitopol? When such railroad might be ready?
Can anyone say, ghost of Brusilov Offensive?
Ukraine's Stratcom Center reported that the 128th Mtn Bde incident involved an Iskander; losing assembled infantry to LPGM is quite embarrassing. Mind you, this is pretty much what Russia was trying to accomplish in the Hroza missile attack, so blundering this way after that event is doubly embarrassing.
At some point we have to come to terms with the institutional weaknesses of the ZSU and the lack of training among the mass of soldiers. Ukraine received an absolutely adequate provision of ordnance to conduct ONE strategic offensive. The problem, as *so many* people have pointed out over and over, was that the level of quality and motivation among UFOR officers and troops is a little, but not substantially, better than the RuFOR average. And against a well-prepared and coordinated defense, one needs a lot more than a little.
2 months of training for conscripts (the reported average in the ZSU) is good enough for TDF militias a year ago, but it's not adequate for a shock corps. Several days of NATO "combined arms" training at the company or battalion level - what was actually provided to the "Western-equipped brigades" - was always going to be a joke on top of that. The Soviets knew plenty about combined arms. The Russians, for all their flaws, have been demonstrating better combined arms around Avdiivka than the Ukrainians almost ever have throughout the war. That Ukraine does not have the capacity to conduct proper wartime instruction to staff and enlisted in some form of iterated Soviet doctrine is exactly the glaring problem that NATO should have united in addressing 1.5 years ago. If one must invent some sort of dolchstosslegende, take it from that angle, not the myth that Ukraine was overall starved of equipment.
The proof is in the pudding. Throughout the war, the most rigorous casualty estimates keep putting the loss ratio in personnel between UFOR and RuFOR at around 1.5x in the former's favor, and perhaps the reverse when UFOR is attacking. But even before the summer campaign, we *knew*, could observe, that Russia and Ukraine typically converged on the same tactics and strategies - albeit Ukraine has much higher loss sensitivity and cautiousness. Similar militaries under similar constraints have achieved similar results, and we should fear that Ukraine will never succeed unless we identify what they truly need most. Getting that right matters for more than scoring points on the Internet.
Different results require a fundamental transformation of the responsible institutions. Not reinforcing past failure.
Empty promises and suggestions of negotiations is all that can be heard now ((((
Thanks for the update Tom. Hopefully they ban such decoration ceremonies at or near the frontlines. It also goes to show there are Russian moles who shared the information, but it was a silly thing to do in the first place. I'm also hearing some negative commentary about General Syrski from a twitter account thats been critical of Ukrainian officers https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1720814139600232737?s=20. I wonder if its just the bias of the account (they've always picked on Gen Syrski)or this is the actual sentiment amongst junior officers and rank and file. Or its just the usual criticism that is found in all corporations? Otherwise it looks like Ukraine is really doing best with what they have. The losses the Russians have suffered are shocking.
The Ukrainian army is still very similar to the Soviet army, and we are in many ways similar to the Russian army. It’s infuriating that in the 10th year of the war we still have people who gather military personnel for a holiday to present awards. Earlier, the Russians fired missiles at funerals in Pervomaisky, Grozovoy, Chernigov, Desna and Yavorovsky training ground (Lviv region). But we don’t learn anything and we still laugh at the Russians (Makeevka). They killed the best and most motivated officers and soldiers. These meetings must be stopped, although what am I talking about, Syrsky himself awarded the fighters that day. I would like to write a lot of bad words about those who make decisions, but this will not change anything... Eternal memory to the dead. Heroes do not die.
Tom, are you sure about that counteroffensive near Krasnomikhailovka? It was in a Russian telegram channel of the Kuban (not Cuban) artillerists (which is not a major source of info) but many OSINTs were dismissive of it. It looked to be too much behind the Russian lines. Could have been an old clip.
Alas your report is in fact the only optimistic conclusion about the course of the war. Stupid political games in the USA and constant lamentation about dwarf operations in Israel leave little place for news from the battlefield in Ukraine. But nevertheless ZSU was able again to strike successfully the military plant in Kerch. Glory to ZSU!
I've read that ZSU has also troubles on the left side of Dnipro - every bigger group is shelled by arty and bombarded from aircraft immediately.
Dear Tom, it's good to read not-so-depressing report (minus 128th incident). As I read all kinds of stuff, yesterday I became severely distressed after reading https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1720531438074794447 and https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1720585240412930355
Could it be that the drop in the number of Russian casualties reported (second link above) is just an artefact of tighter Russian control over social media since around March (along the lines of https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/03/12/russia-social-media-putin-opposition/)?
Thanks for the update, Tom. I’m deprived of words about the 128th incident. It’s a criminal thing and some head had to roll... but seems it “after the war”, shame!
And what about the RuZZians, with his (own troops) meat grinder tactics with null advances?
The constantly claim for the promised ammo/equipment for Ukraine had to be, by now, a roar. But, hey, army of Angels are in the March, so all things Ukrainian are second rate news...
No one is immune to making mistakes. It was another black day in Ukraine. But the good news can help in that moments. The chuvash battalion was struck with Himars. Rumors says 120 killed and wounded.
Thank for the update, this was in many ways a relief. Except that 128th incident that is. Overall it seems like the situation now is pretty stable except maybe Dnipro area. At least as long as both sides continue to get enough materiale, munitions included. Which is a big If of course.