Hello everybody! My commentary on ‘this season’s’ Russian missile offensive on Ukraine of the last few days has prompted many questions. Thus, I think it’s about the time to address some of these. Today, I lack the time to address more than ‘four groups of questions’, but I’ll try to do more in the coming days.
Aside of components, there are still zero measures to stop supplies of consumables for the modern Western industrial equipment of Russian missile-producing plants.
What may be the reasons for that change of targets from power infrastructure to defense industry and command nodes? Are behind just military reasons, i.e. Russians want weaken ZSU. Or maybe some behind the scene political pressure from the West (e.g. something like "if you do not stop target power grid we git Ukraine this and that"). ?
Thank you so much for you constant efforts to make sense what's going on in Russian-Ukrainian war. For sure I do not have complete picture but do have at least two recent examples when russians deliberately targeted civilian targets during the latest intensive air offence: a museum and a university were purposely hit in Lviv region. They do not have any military value or function, just purely symbolic one as they are connected to Ukrainian Insurgence Army that lead anti-russian effort in Ukraine during World War II. it is very unlikely that they could be hit simultaneously without targeted targeting. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/957833.html
Russia does aim civilian targets, but not always. Targeting Kharkiv with S-300 can not be considered as targeting military facilities of any kind. Were S-300 precise enough for the latter, Russia would use it in e.g. Krynki. Therefore Russia uses S-300 to hit Kharkiv to cause any kind of damage, because it can.
Sorry, Tom, but after reading your report somebody may think that Russia is not targeting civilians in Ukraine and the damage is involuntary. As we know very well from 2014 Russia constantly bombed Donbass villages from Russian territory, is now bombing Kherson and every town or city it can reach. Although to send missiles to the power grid may be now considered a waste, to make every possible damages with cheaper weapons is everyday Russian practice.
I often see comments that it is difficult for Ukraine to provide air defences everywhere because it is a large country also has a long front line to defend plus insufficient air defence systems.
Presumably Russia which is a much larger country has the same problem but maybe not so severe as they have more AD systems, is this correct?
Great write up as always. The West is very disappointing really, in totality. European countries should move quickly to form blocs that develop weapons if the EU cannot.
Cruise missiles:
A cruise missile a day is ~$360mn a year for each major EU power(Italy, France, UK, Germany, Sweden, Spain, Poland) and ~3bn euro a year. That would be 210 cruise missiles a month and 2520 a year. Just sending 10-30% of this to Ukraine would be 252-756 such missiles that can be used to hit radars, ships, etc. on Ukrainian territory!!! Half this production rate and the impact is still significant.
This would give Ukraine the respite it needs to produce more of its own cruise missiles and air defence missiles. But right now they have to spend a lot of resources to hit Crimea while begging for the West to supply such missiles.
But in all this is where is the Western production capacity? The benefits are enormous axiomatic.
The Nordic countries should make their own bloc as well and start similar weapons production schemes and send 10-30% of this to Ukraine. Its not rocket science if you're not a politician.
Has happened - dozens of times - in this war already (and many earlier wars, too).
EXACTLY: the attack on Pearl Harbor...."49 civilians were killed and 35 wounded during the attack on Oahu" "Many of the 5-inch anti-aircraft rounds fired at the Japanese aircraft did not detonate properly and landed in civilian areas around Pearl Harbor and Honolulu, exploding on contact with the ground." (https://www.nps.gov/perl/learn/historyculture/civilian-casualties.htm)
BTW Tom, still have not heard if you are familiar with the book WEHRMACHT WAR CRIMES BUREAU, 1939–1945...kinda curious.
Regarding point 3), the goal of the S-300 attacks on Kharkiv was pure terrorism of the civilians. One cannot possible find any alternative rationale behind them.
I ask because 25+ years ago my Bachelor in History thesis was on the subject. The subject of specific war crimes perpetrated against the Germans by the Western Allies: if I recall granting of no quarter and the killing of prisoners at the time they surrender of afterwards. Considering it is so ancient I would actually like to hear your opinion on it if you have the time. Needless to say my Professor was shocked at my topic.
Tom: I thought you might be interested in the Atomic Testing Film Library from Lawrence Liverermore National Laboratory that were declassified (498 videos for testing):
Is it possible to intercept Kh-22 while it flies in phase 4-5 on the picture? I understand it is probably too high altitude for SAM to reach, but can it be intercepted by some kind of missile launched from F-16 (or Su-27/MiG-29) ?
Aside of components, there are still zero measures to stop supplies of consumables for the modern Western industrial equipment of Russian missile-producing plants.
What may be the reasons for that change of targets from power infrastructure to defense industry and command nodes? Are behind just military reasons, i.e. Russians want weaken ZSU. Or maybe some behind the scene political pressure from the West (e.g. something like "if you do not stop target power grid we git Ukraine this and that"). ?
Thank you so much for you constant efforts to make sense what's going on in Russian-Ukrainian war. For sure I do not have complete picture but do have at least two recent examples when russians deliberately targeted civilian targets during the latest intensive air offence: a museum and a university were purposely hit in Lviv region. They do not have any military value or function, just purely symbolic one as they are connected to Ukrainian Insurgence Army that lead anti-russian effort in Ukraine during World War II. it is very unlikely that they could be hit simultaneously without targeted targeting. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/957833.html
Russia does aim civilian targets, but not always. Targeting Kharkiv with S-300 can not be considered as targeting military facilities of any kind. Were S-300 precise enough for the latter, Russia would use it in e.g. Krynki. Therefore Russia uses S-300 to hit Kharkiv to cause any kind of damage, because it can.
thanks Tom, accurate always . . ..
Regarding 2 - there was also a report they've hit factories/warehouses of a tactical gear/clothing brand: https://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2024/01/3/708344/
Sorry, Tom, but after reading your report somebody may think that Russia is not targeting civilians in Ukraine and the damage is involuntary. As we know very well from 2014 Russia constantly bombed Donbass villages from Russian territory, is now bombing Kherson and every town or city it can reach. Although to send missiles to the power grid may be now considered a waste, to make every possible damages with cheaper weapons is everyday Russian practice.
Спасибо
I often see comments that it is difficult for Ukraine to provide air defences everywhere because it is a large country also has a long front line to defend plus insufficient air defence systems.
Presumably Russia which is a much larger country has the same problem but maybe not so severe as they have more AD systems, is this correct?
Great write up as always. The West is very disappointing really, in totality. European countries should move quickly to form blocs that develop weapons if the EU cannot.
Cruise missiles:
A cruise missile a day is ~$360mn a year for each major EU power(Italy, France, UK, Germany, Sweden, Spain, Poland) and ~3bn euro a year. That would be 210 cruise missiles a month and 2520 a year. Just sending 10-30% of this to Ukraine would be 252-756 such missiles that can be used to hit radars, ships, etc. on Ukrainian territory!!! Half this production rate and the impact is still significant.
This would give Ukraine the respite it needs to produce more of its own cruise missiles and air defence missiles. But right now they have to spend a lot of resources to hit Crimea while begging for the West to supply such missiles.
But in all this is where is the Western production capacity? The benefits are enormous axiomatic.
The Nordic countries should make their own bloc as well and start similar weapons production schemes and send 10-30% of this to Ukraine. Its not rocket science if you're not a politician.
Yeah, sure they are not targeting civilians on purpose, because we all know that in this world only Israel can do such thing 🙄
Has happened - dozens of times - in this war already (and many earlier wars, too).
EXACTLY: the attack on Pearl Harbor...."49 civilians were killed and 35 wounded during the attack on Oahu" "Many of the 5-inch anti-aircraft rounds fired at the Japanese aircraft did not detonate properly and landed in civilian areas around Pearl Harbor and Honolulu, exploding on contact with the ground." (https://www.nps.gov/perl/learn/historyculture/civilian-casualties.htm)
BTW Tom, still have not heard if you are familiar with the book WEHRMACHT WAR CRIMES BUREAU, 1939–1945...kinda curious.
Regarding point 3), the goal of the S-300 attacks on Kharkiv was pure terrorism of the civilians. One cannot possible find any alternative rationale behind them.
I ask because 25+ years ago my Bachelor in History thesis was on the subject. The subject of specific war crimes perpetrated against the Germans by the Western Allies: if I recall granting of no quarter and the killing of prisoners at the time they surrender of afterwards. Considering it is so ancient I would actually like to hear your opinion on it if you have the time. Needless to say my Professor was shocked at my topic.
Tom: I thought you might be interested in the Atomic Testing Film Library from Lawrence Liverermore National Laboratory that were declassified (498 videos for testing):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWpqGKUG5yY&list=PLvGO_dWo8VfcmG166wKRy5z-GlJ_OQND5
I've got a question regarding Kh-22 interception.
Is it possible to intercept Kh-22 while it flies in phase 4-5 on the picture? I understand it is probably too high altitude for SAM to reach, but can it be intercepted by some kind of missile launched from F-16 (or Su-27/MiG-29) ?