Good evening everybody! Sometimes… well, there are days I do not like preparing my summaries/updates the least. Thus, let me just get over to that. *** Not the least sure this is ‘Ukraine-related’, but I have no doubts: Pudding’s going to find a way to make it Ukraine-related…
According to Norwegian news sources Peskov used the Word « War » to describe the situation in Ukraine. A war with the west. The analysis given for the reason of this language shift was (surprise surprise) as a preparation for a general mobilization. Now you write « while I’m joining the army of those wondering if this is another of FSB’s false flag operations: a ‘terrorist attack in Moscow’ would ‘automatically authorise’ Pudding to do whatever he wants to do… (including mobilising youngsters Muscovites). ». Damn « lucky » with that attack Putin? I don’t know whether he simply allowed it to happen or orchestrated it. But the attack suited him well, and he will use it.
Regarding your analysis the crux of it seems to be that Russian attacks are slowly and expensively creeping forward. Their airforce is not stopped in its attacks and the ground troops are dying but grinding on. One can of course hope that this type of attacks becomes so expensive that the troops break, but I don’t really believe so. Breaking will first happen when they stop advancing. And while this hurts Russia in decades to come that doesn’t stop Putin. So something has to be done to stop Russian progress. Probably means some change in tactics.
40% of refining capacity is probably a wild exaggeration, but somewhere between 10 and 15% seems realistic, and I think this is already beyond the spare capacity Russia had, and cutting into exports. A few more good strikes, and there might be domestic deficit, which would be difficult to alleviate, because Russian petroleum infrastructure is not meant for imports. This game might - just might - pay off for Ukraine.
Thanks Tom for the report, is the artillary shell shortage allowing the Russians to advance be it incremental but advancing just the same or is it a change in UAF tactics or a combo of both
Regarding the Crocus Concert attack (from BBC & ABC):
40 Dead
150+ wounded
Collapse of the roof of the concert hall
ISIL claimed attack
15 days ago US State Dept. put out a notice that an Islamic Extremist group was likely to attack a large public gathering....specifically mentioning a CONCERT VENUE within 48 hours (obviously a little tardy on the timing).
PUTIN said that the US was trying to make them (Russia) scared and .....whatever.
TOM: with the collapse of the roof, were any other killed. I.E. were the Russians able to get all the wounded out before the collapse???
Thanks for the update. FT is reporting that global prices for oil refinery products are up by 10% due to the attacks on Russian refineries. As well that the US government is putting pressure on Ukraine to stop this. I wonder what your thoughts on this are.
Aren't the massive attacks on infrastructure also an admission that Moscow doesn't expect to gain control of most of Ukraine any time soon?
Their only "gains" so far have been to capture totally destroyed towns, which will take billions to rebuild, if they can even do that.
So, unfortunately, this may be the beginning of an aerial "scorched earth" policy. Rather like Rogozhin's villain in The Idiot, Putin may now feel "if I can't have Ukraine, nobody can..."
ISIS-K is a known sock puppet for the CIA. An attack like this is completely consistent with how the USA operates. Time for some hybrid retaliation, and it will be richly deserved.
The attack on the Russian refineries perhaps forced Russia to take unplanned steps. The air strikes on the ukrainian enelectricity chain in March didn't cause many problems like in the winter 2022-2023. Russia delayed with this strickes if they was planned or they was a reaction to the ukrainian strikes.
It means that Ukraine imposes to Russia the way to continue this war. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think Russia planned to strike SBU offices or a sea drone facility which is hidden somewhere in Ukraine.
- Russia escalates (probably overwhelming the Ukrainian AD, destroying power plants or using chemical weapons on a large scale)
- They try to suppress the international support of Ukraine by labeling Ukrainians as "terrorists" for "nazi" did not stick
False flag terror was first used to prove the need of violating the peace deal with Chechnya and conquering it, then to cut the international ties with Chechen refugees and its government in exile.
ISIS is what backfired in America's 2nd war on Iraq - disempowered Sunni's taking back what they can. The "Obama founded ISIS" meme is just one of Trump's carefree lies where the lie is so ridiculous and opposite of true it just ties up the conversation with nonsense. Wise never to take a word out of American noise as true. Those sources don't know anything and aren't interested in knowing anything. They're just fighting domestic US politics.
I wonder if there are any signs of an uprising in Chechnya or other Muslim regions, or even if not, whether the idea of such could wrapped into Putin's pretext-for-mobilisation narrative. It's not impossible Western intel could be stirring things up using ISIS-K as a proxy, it's also of course not impossible this could be a repeat of the 1999 false flag FSB bombings.
According to Norwegian news sources Peskov used the Word « War » to describe the situation in Ukraine. A war with the west. The analysis given for the reason of this language shift was (surprise surprise) as a preparation for a general mobilization. Now you write « while I’m joining the army of those wondering if this is another of FSB’s false flag operations: a ‘terrorist attack in Moscow’ would ‘automatically authorise’ Pudding to do whatever he wants to do… (including mobilising youngsters Muscovites). ». Damn « lucky » with that attack Putin? I don’t know whether he simply allowed it to happen or orchestrated it. But the attack suited him well, and he will use it.
Regarding your analysis the crux of it seems to be that Russian attacks are slowly and expensively creeping forward. Their airforce is not stopped in its attacks and the ground troops are dying but grinding on. One can of course hope that this type of attacks becomes so expensive that the troops break, but I don’t really believe so. Breaking will first happen when they stop advancing. And while this hurts Russia in decades to come that doesn’t stop Putin. So something has to be done to stop Russian progress. Probably means some change in tactics.
In regards of attack on Ru, I would also mention units of Chechenian batalion, Georgian legion and K.Kalinovsky regiment. They are all doing great!
I suppose you mean Bogdanivka, not Bilohorivka, when writing about Bakhmut
Сегодня был сложный день. Привет Вам из Запорожья.
40% of refining capacity is probably a wild exaggeration, but somewhere between 10 and 15% seems realistic, and I think this is already beyond the spare capacity Russia had, and cutting into exports. A few more good strikes, and there might be domestic deficit, which would be difficult to alleviate, because Russian petroleum infrastructure is not meant for imports. This game might - just might - pay off for Ukraine.
Thanks Tom for the report, is the artillary shell shortage allowing the Russians to advance be it incremental but advancing just the same or is it a change in UAF tactics or a combo of both
Regarding the Crocus Concert attack (from BBC & ABC):
40 Dead
150+ wounded
Collapse of the roof of the concert hall
ISIL claimed attack
15 days ago US State Dept. put out a notice that an Islamic Extremist group was likely to attack a large public gathering....specifically mentioning a CONCERT VENUE within 48 hours (obviously a little tardy on the timing).
PUTIN said that the US was trying to make them (Russia) scared and .....whatever.
TOM: with the collapse of the roof, were any other killed. I.E. were the Russians able to get all the wounded out before the collapse???
At last check 4 MILLION+ Ukrainians without power.
Thanks for the update. FT is reporting that global prices for oil refinery products are up by 10% due to the attacks on Russian refineries. As well that the US government is putting pressure on Ukraine to stop this. I wonder what your thoughts on this are.
Also, this(https://x.com/CalibreObscura/status/1771159913902882861?s=20) is an interesting concept for a Ukrainian GLCM. I wonder what your thoughts on how effective such cheap versions are compared to say the KH-555,101s, 22s, Neptune.
Aren't the massive attacks on infrastructure also an admission that Moscow doesn't expect to gain control of most of Ukraine any time soon?
Their only "gains" so far have been to capture totally destroyed towns, which will take billions to rebuild, if they can even do that.
So, unfortunately, this may be the beginning of an aerial "scorched earth" policy. Rather like Rogozhin's villain in The Idiot, Putin may now feel "if I can't have Ukraine, nobody can..."
ISIS-K is a known sock puppet for the CIA. An attack like this is completely consistent with how the USA operates. Time for some hybrid retaliation, and it will be richly deserved.
The attack on the Russian refineries perhaps forced Russia to take unplanned steps. The air strikes on the ukrainian enelectricity chain in March didn't cause many problems like in the winter 2022-2023. Russia delayed with this strickes if they was planned or they was a reaction to the ukrainian strikes.
It means that Ukraine imposes to Russia the way to continue this war. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think Russia planned to strike SBU offices or a sea drone facility which is hidden somewhere in Ukraine.
Tom, you have missed that the yesterday's terror attack was a major event of this war. The whole sequence of looks like this:
- European countries begin to wake up
- Ukraine strikes refineries
- Putin's elections are over
- Russian diplomats start calling the war a war
- Russians destroy a Ukrainian power plant (which is not an escalation as they've already blasted the Kakhovka dam)
- There is a well-organized massacre in a suburb of Moscow with police appearing after an hour when the attackers have already left
- All the Russian news and Telegram bots blame the terror attack on Ukraine https://meduza.io/news/2024/03/23/v-kremle-dali-ukazanie-gosudarstvennym-i-loyalnym-vlasti-smi-podcherkivat-v-soobscheniyah-o-terakte-v-krokuse-vozmozhnyy-ukrainskiy-sled and see what happens in the comments in https://t.me/grey_zone for example <- WE ARE HERE
- Russia escalates (probably overwhelming the Ukrainian AD, destroying power plants or using chemical weapons on a large scale)
- They try to suppress the international support of Ukraine by labeling Ukrainians as "terrorists" for "nazi" did not stick
False flag terror was first used to prove the need of violating the peace deal with Chechnya and conquering it, then to cut the international ties with Chechen refugees and its government in exile.
ISIS is what backfired in America's 2nd war on Iraq - disempowered Sunni's taking back what they can. The "Obama founded ISIS" meme is just one of Trump's carefree lies where the lie is so ridiculous and opposite of true it just ties up the conversation with nonsense. Wise never to take a word out of American noise as true. Those sources don't know anything and aren't interested in knowing anything. They're just fighting domestic US politics.
I wonder if there are any signs of an uprising in Chechnya or other Muslim regions, or even if not, whether the idea of such could wrapped into Putin's pretext-for-mobilisation narrative. It's not impossible Western intel could be stirring things up using ISIS-K as a proxy, it's also of course not impossible this could be a repeat of the 1999 false flag FSB bombings.