Hello everybody! Up front: SPECIAL THANKS! Thank you for supporting collection for the Shark UAV for the 3rd SSO. Few answers in regards of related questions (sorry, but I really have no time to answer all the e-mails and private messages coming my way, the last weeks and months):
FYI: the budget for Patriots, that's the 2022 budged, money spent already. So EU council can work without any obstruction even it they will be looking to Patriot batteries next 10, 100, 1000 ... years. Just clown theater. See https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1778469072092446999
Я не вірю іноземному генералу про пілотів. Півтора роки розповідали, що вони тренуються, а тепер їх немає. Куди зникли? І ще - Україна не могла відправити на навчання людей без освіти. Поїхали вчитися вже професійні винищувачі. Англійську вони знають, у нас неможна вступити в училище для льотчиків без знання англійської мови.
Finite la comedia. Several more strikes like this and and ukraine is doomed.
It seems peace negotiations are around the corner judging by this devastating strikes on energy grid and news from Turkey, Russia and USA. Ukrainian energy experts are very pessimistic about UA ability to fix at least part of generation by winter.
At least, one positive in all this is that since the Ukrainians have started running out of AD missile, the number of Russian attacks on kindergartens and schools has gone way down.
For your next fundraiser I would humbly suggest getting money to buy the Palestinians some stingers so they can fight back against the indiscriminate bombing of civilians performed by the IDF and enabled by the freedom loving US.
Sorry for the sarcasm, it is contagious.
Can you comment on the information spread by the pro Russian sources that the Azov brigade refused the order to deploy and fight in Chasov Yar ?
What is even the realistic way out of this now, barring the West magically pull its head out of the sand or a hithero unseen Russian internal event that could lead to a sudden end or collapse. European contributions means some equipment and shells will continue to get into Ukraine, but how much is that enough for beyond some delaying defense with slow retreat. Thats assuming Ukraine has enough soldiers...
It's infuriating that even with a time machine I couldn't do anything to help because of incompetent our leaders are.
US military officers have deliberately learned absolutely nothing from Iraq or Afghanistan. Within a year or two of every colossal fuckup sponsored scholars pump out the next approved memory-hole project designed to rewrite failure as victory.
To wit, the entire Petraeus myth and legend of the Surge. It is now official history that the War in Iraq was won by throwing more bodies at the problem - every American general's favorite solution. Tried and failed in Afghanistan, but no matter. Just like after Vietnam, senior officers responsible for the mess were determined to pretend that if the politicians hadn't bound their hands victory was assured.
In reality, the US was almost defeated by the insurgency, and finally saw the plain sense in a recommendation made by a USMC captain (who was later KIA). You split the psycho wing of the insurgents that always forms from the sane people mad at their country being occupied. Give the latter autonomy and resources and let them do the police work only locals can do anyway. Don't fucking launch an air strike or kick down doors in some neighborhood every time someone takes a potshot at you.
That's the lesson to draw from russia's even stupider attempt to dominate another country. But will the Pentagon? No, because they want a forever war with China that imitates how they imagine WW2 going. They want to be able to play war of attrition with ordinary soldiers acting like robots from Command and Conquer. Most aren't much better at their jobs than orc officers.
/end rant
Written by someone who ordinary drill sergeants fresh from the sandbox were already training soldiers in basic counterinsurgency tactics while Petraeus was still pretending he had single-handedly secured Mosul.
Thanks Tom. While we know about the lack of AD systems, do you have any comment on how much of a problem lack (or rationing) of AD missiles is currently?
Concerning the budget of the European Council the European Parliament refused to confirm Ukrainian media got wise that it is only the confirmation of the budget of 2022. It is next to nothing. So the whole mess is in fact no more then a PR-action for the imbeciles.
I don’t understand why Ukraine aren’t ‘recruiting’ previous F-16 pilots from the west to incorporate under a partisan Air Wing. There must be 100s of recently retired F-16 pilots who would consider joining under some such body. A bit like the ground units but in the air.
Today we see the US moving ‘additional air defence units’ to the Middle East. They can find them to protect assets there no problems yet are happy for Ukraine to suffer
Lastly - there is an interview I saw today from an Ex-US forces sniper. You’ve probably seen it. I think you could share this and ask it is spread far and wide across the American supporters to help them realise the magnitude of the situation.
Trypilla TPP was attacked by 2 shaheds and 7 cruise missiles after 20 minutes after shaheds without any single shot of AD, even machinguns were silent which is extremely strange. All 7 hits were rhythmic according to tu-95 firing tempo (but it has only 6 in one salvo). 3th and 4th explosion were significantly weaker than rest(like regular cruise missiles), all the rest were much louder, I assume it was Kh-101 with doubled warhead
That all of Ukraine’s TPPs will be gone should be already the base scenario. After that Russia will aim at the substations of the nuclear plants. Mobile or small engine-based ( not turbines) generators can provide relief to most industrial plants and small towns/villages. Ukraine has enough natural gas production to sustain thousands of natural gas-based engines. This is expensive and combined with diesel generators much dirtier. Yet, the collective West is more obsessed with spending trillions on green follies, rather than help Ukraine - which will have the immediate effect of stopping all the co2 emissions from the war effort. Currently Russian refineries are getting a better treatment from Western officials than US shale oil producers or European coal plants.
FYI: the budget for Patriots, that's the 2022 budged, money spent already. So EU council can work without any obstruction even it they will be looking to Patriot batteries next 10, 100, 1000 ... years. Just clown theater. See https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1778469072092446999
Я не вірю іноземному генералу про пілотів. Півтора роки розповідали, що вони тренуються, а тепер їх немає. Куди зникли? І ще - Україна не могла відправити на навчання людей без освіти. Поїхали вчитися вже професійні винищувачі. Англійську вони знають, у нас неможна вступити в училище для льотчиків без знання англійської мови.
Thanks Tom!
Finite la comedia. Several more strikes like this and and ukraine is doomed.
It seems peace negotiations are around the corner judging by this devastating strikes on energy grid and news from Turkey, Russia and USA. Ukrainian energy experts are very pessimistic about UA ability to fix at least part of generation by winter.
At least, one positive in all this is that since the Ukrainians have started running out of AD missile, the number of Russian attacks on kindergartens and schools has gone way down.
For your next fundraiser I would humbly suggest getting money to buy the Palestinians some stingers so they can fight back against the indiscriminate bombing of civilians performed by the IDF and enabled by the freedom loving US.
Sorry for the sarcasm, it is contagious.
Can you comment on the information spread by the pro Russian sources that the Azov brigade refused the order to deploy and fight in Chasov Yar ?
What is even the realistic way out of this now, barring the West magically pull its head out of the sand or a hithero unseen Russian internal event that could lead to a sudden end or collapse. European contributions means some equipment and shells will continue to get into Ukraine, but how much is that enough for beyond some delaying defense with slow retreat. Thats assuming Ukraine has enough soldiers...
It's infuriating that even with a time machine I couldn't do anything to help because of incompetent our leaders are.
Ty for the updates Tom. Appreciate all the work you put into every update or article
US military officers have deliberately learned absolutely nothing from Iraq or Afghanistan. Within a year or two of every colossal fuckup sponsored scholars pump out the next approved memory-hole project designed to rewrite failure as victory.
To wit, the entire Petraeus myth and legend of the Surge. It is now official history that the War in Iraq was won by throwing more bodies at the problem - every American general's favorite solution. Tried and failed in Afghanistan, but no matter. Just like after Vietnam, senior officers responsible for the mess were determined to pretend that if the politicians hadn't bound their hands victory was assured.
In reality, the US was almost defeated by the insurgency, and finally saw the plain sense in a recommendation made by a USMC captain (who was later KIA). You split the psycho wing of the insurgents that always forms from the sane people mad at their country being occupied. Give the latter autonomy and resources and let them do the police work only locals can do anyway. Don't fucking launch an air strike or kick down doors in some neighborhood every time someone takes a potshot at you.
That's the lesson to draw from russia's even stupider attempt to dominate another country. But will the Pentagon? No, because they want a forever war with China that imitates how they imagine WW2 going. They want to be able to play war of attrition with ordinary soldiers acting like robots from Command and Conquer. Most aren't much better at their jobs than orc officers.
/end rant
Written by someone who ordinary drill sergeants fresh from the sandbox were already training soldiers in basic counterinsurgency tactics while Petraeus was still pretending he had single-handedly secured Mosul.
A former RAF flight trainer has an interview out just now on the Ukrainian F-16 training.
Might be of interest.
https://www.ukcolumn.org/video/winging-it-why-is-the-uk-training-ukrainian-pilots
Thanks Tom. While we know about the lack of AD systems, do you have any comment on how much of a problem lack (or rationing) of AD missiles is currently?
I’m wondering if anyone has thought to recruit ex F-16 pilots to form a Flying Tiger type outfit.
Concerning the budget of the European Council the European Parliament refused to confirm Ukrainian media got wise that it is only the confirmation of the budget of 2022. It is next to nothing. So the whole mess is in fact no more then a PR-action for the imbeciles.
A few observations :
I don’t understand why Ukraine aren’t ‘recruiting’ previous F-16 pilots from the west to incorporate under a partisan Air Wing. There must be 100s of recently retired F-16 pilots who would consider joining under some such body. A bit like the ground units but in the air.
Today we see the US moving ‘additional air defence units’ to the Middle East. They can find them to protect assets there no problems yet are happy for Ukraine to suffer
Lastly - there is an interview I saw today from an Ex-US forces sniper. You’ve probably seen it. I think you could share this and ask it is spread far and wide across the American supporters to help them realise the magnitude of the situation.
So: is Ukraine finished? Was the attack on the power station Putin’s winning goal?
Trypilla TPP was attacked by 2 shaheds and 7 cruise missiles after 20 minutes after shaheds without any single shot of AD, even machinguns were silent which is extremely strange. All 7 hits were rhythmic according to tu-95 firing tempo (but it has only 6 in one salvo). 3th and 4th explosion were significantly weaker than rest(like regular cruise missiles), all the rest were much louder, I assume it was Kh-101 with doubled warhead
That all of Ukraine’s TPPs will be gone should be already the base scenario. After that Russia will aim at the substations of the nuclear plants. Mobile or small engine-based ( not turbines) generators can provide relief to most industrial plants and small towns/villages. Ukraine has enough natural gas production to sustain thousands of natural gas-based engines. This is expensive and combined with diesel generators much dirtier. Yet, the collective West is more obsessed with spending trillions on green follies, rather than help Ukraine - which will have the immediate effect of stopping all the co2 emissions from the war effort. Currently Russian refineries are getting a better treatment from Western officials than US shale oil producers or European coal plants.