57 Comments

Thanks a lot for this update. We will see about what Army have the most flexibility or to seal the gap or ti exploit it.

Ochererino was the northern flank of the new main defense line, I am right?

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I’m glad that some actions were taken on units that are there but have not done their share of the defense unlike the bloody 47th or the 3rd Assault.

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Hardly the end of politically motivated units in the ZSU (see Kraken, 3rd Assault, etc). Just the end of them functioning outside standard military discipline. Or so the ZSU says.

More likely, Office of the President and ZSU command is willing to take on the relatively weak civilian support organization of Right Sector but afraid of taking on the much more powerful and politically well organized civilian support organization of Azov. It also helps that the various Azov affiliated units are some of the most combat effective, are excellent at bringing in volunteers even in the current climate, and don't run in the face of the enemy.

But the end of politically affiliated units in the ZSU? Hardly.

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you for the update. I suspected something like this. The only thing that surprises me that if it was the 47th Mech that was rotating out, why did they leave before anyone showed up to relieve them? They have been in the fight long enough to know better. I have read about empty UA positions so that means the unit on hand left prior to the new guys getting there. If I have this wrong let me know. But the 67th Mech? Yes, and yes. They just about gave the game away over a simple stupid mistake (not mining a certain area), and if that is due to poor leadership or a failure to follow orders (from Faggot Generals) then changes need to be made. Volunteer units can be great units, but they must be disciplined and they must understand they are part of the military and as such obey orders and regulations. The US Military in the War of 1812 is a textbook example of how NOT to do it in regards to volunteers and militia. For every volunteer unit that turns out well, you have three that fail miserably. The old CinC was well liked, even beloved, but he didn't do the hard rights that needed to be done in order to become effective. In the US, we call that a McClellan after the Civil War General who was loved by his men, but couldn't do what needed to be done and didn't like taking orders from higher ups since he "Knew Better".

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Apr 23·edited Apr 23

I don't buy the story with the rotating Brigades. Attacking during the rotation is usually a bad idea for the simple reason that for that short amount of time (a Brigade needs 24-48 max to rotate) you will face double the amount of troops in that area. The ones being rotated out don't just pack up and leave in columns, the operation is more complex with pre designed concentration areas and entry/exit points for the troops going in and out. The more plausible story would be that they were caught buy artillery or aviation while trying to do this. And the enemy will/should always look for this opportunity, even if troop rotations are usually done at night. Is they just left and not followed orders, well, this is another story.

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Could it bee that the russians are going "all inn" at the moment because they expect that it will be impossible when Ukrainians get resupplied?

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

This from Fobes and Ukrainska Pravda a week ago:

"The defense ministry in Kyiv investigated [the 67th]. It discovered, among other scandals, that the 67th Brigade’s officers were sending new volunteers—those without ties to the Right Sector—into combat with inadequate training and support.

The officers derisively called the new volunteers “pixels” after the pixelated pattern on their newly-issued uniforms. As bad as the Right Sector troops’ attitude was toward apolitical troops, “the attitude toward the ‘pixels’ was even worse,” Ukrainian Pravda reported. “They were the first to be sent into combat, and their lack of experience made them lose territory.”"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/15/robots-reinforce-ukraines-most-vulnerable-district-as-a-key-brigade-melts-down/?sh=69e14f9e16fe

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/14/7451183/

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Two updates in a row… many thanks, Tom! Even if the first have a pessimistic tone, is as always very valuable (IMHO).

Regarding “political” units in a modern Army reminds me of our (latest) civil war in 1936-39. The side that had militarised and under control the political volunteer units won; the one with even in its best moments hadn’t all controlled, lost. Is a point.

Of course that isn’t the only one reason to win/lose a war, put helps a lot.

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Thank you for the update. Excuse my ignorance, but what is meant by Pravi Sector Boys (and girls?) missing some context here. But I get the sarcasm.

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Apr 23Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks for the context!! Good to know Syrskyi is trying to reorganize these units.

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How can the 47th still fight after so much action on the counter offesive in zaporizhia and then the defense in avdiivka? also i dont know if you know this or not but i have been researching and i found that the losses from ukraine and russian in the counter offesive where more or less equal how accurate is that?

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Apr 24Liked by Sarcastosaurus

While I fully understand the idea that aid pledged does not equal aid received, I am seriously thinking the US aid is going to get there a lot faster than most people think. I am no longer in the service, but I have friends that are, and I hear things. It is really sounding like the Pentagon stacked the deck for this initial push and that Ukraine is going to get a lot of stuff fast. Yes our system can be retarded, yes it can get delayed. But, and please bear with me on this as I get all Red, White and Blue here, when the US decides to move stuff, we MOVE. No one, and I do mean no one, on this planet can do what we can do when we get the go order to make things go from point a to point b. This is sounding like lots of stuff has been prepo'd, and things have been set up so that when go time comes we GO. They are talking about emptying our Prepo stocks and moving stuff to backfill so that they can get stuff there faster. I may be over hopeful, and I will be the first to say "we will see". But I too have those odd feelings, like your little toe, and I'm getting one on this. I hope I'm right.

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Thanks Tom this didn't sound / look good

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