Totally agreed on the whole condescending tone of, “Well, you just must not have understood what I said.”
There are still useful things to learn from [ed: CCP] propaganda/hackery. But there’s always this unmistakable “If you know what’s good for you…” mob boss attitude that’s NEVER going to play well in the West.
After three weeks in Hangzhou in 2014 finishing a doctorate, I came away extremely impressed with China's gleaming cities, spotless subways, and bullet trains. San Francisco on return looked small and shabby by comparison.
China will almost certainly move on Taiwan, triggering a regional war that will become global. WWIII. They haven't yet finished bulking up militarily; but will likely have sufficient muscle on or after 2031. As a distraction from a bad recession, or some deepening social unrest; but also as an expression of cultural obsession, historical grievance, and manifest destiny.
The only thing that will possibly deter them is a very strong global alliance led by the United States, that also includes Vietnam and India. Where an attack on one is an attack on all.
In 2023, a study by Li concluded that local government debt in China was 50% higher than previously estimated by the IMF and World Bank.[9] The study found that the majority of debts were for infrastructure, and the level of debt was unsustainable without central government support.
Why Li did not edit his own book is a mystery. One wonders if his American publisher W. W. Norton & Company was allowed or able to make any editorial suggestions in any significant way.
I agree that we should (and do) have a negative view of CCP governance and many aspects of its economic management, too. It is not so clear what the full implication for US policies should be.
It is surely the case, however, that a more negative view of the CCP should prompt the US at least to remove obstacles to our own economic growth: fiscal deficits, restriction of immigration of skilled and entrepreneurial workers, trade restrictions outside of dependence on China or China-interdictable strategic imports (for example, not EV’s), inefficient incentives for reducing net CO2 emissions instead of taxing them, taxing income instead of taxing consumption.
As a lay history fanatic, I find it distressing that in almost 100% of cases where politicians invoke history it is with the intent of justifying some egregious action that in a civilized world would have no justification.
I have not read the book, and based upon this, I will not rush to do so.
However, I think that importance of history to the Chinese is, indeed, something that could be covered in a short chapter. And, in that regard, it is not so very different from the US -- academic (that is actual, factual history) requires myriad pages and sifting. (And I find it fascinating!) But in and of itself it holds little power over the present. In fact, I find it rather scary how little people in general seem to know about the past.
Rather, it's a nation's historical narrative -- one part truth, one part lies, one part forgetfulness, and then a huge dollop of simplification -- which is important. And yes, I gather it is overwhelmingly important in China. Which considered itself to comprise the civilized world for a lot longer than the Roman Empire existed. Ending in extreme humiliation at the hands of western nations and the Japanese, that did not just include military subjugation, but also overwhelming assumptions of racial inferiority. This occurring recently enough to be remembered by a few people still alive, and by the parents and grandparents of much of the population.
Imagine that the USA actually does devolve into civil war, then we are torn apart and massacred for decades by rivals, and new generations in powerful countries come to see people who look like us as obviously inferior. You can imagine how important our "history" would be to us, if decades later we were rebuilding, and becoming one of the primary world powers again.
So although I take all the other criticisms of this book seriously, I would hope that no one misunderstands the claim that history is of prime importance to the Chinese, nor that this really requires detailed explication.
Thanks for writing this. "China has deep history and understanding her history is key to <<X>>, because the Chinese people / elites think that way" is such a cliched canard, relentlessly being pushed by smart-mouthed pundits like Dalio who themselves know little. It's hilarious because the historical and cultural root for an average contemporary Chinese is severed by none other than CPC.
This doesn't sound like a very good book for understanding the Chinese perspective, but I have been looking for a good book explaining Chinese elites perceptions, including and especially any delusional beliefs they may have about history, geopolitics and the West. Let me know if you have any recommendations!
From the US perspective, if you have an accurate stock of facts about the world, modern China looks increasingly aggressive. But many statements from Chinese leadership and thinkers, assert that China is acting defensively and is actually deeply concerned about what is perceives as western belligerence. Taking these statements at face-value (rather than a reflexive propaganda campaign aimed at third parties), it paints a picture of a delusionally paranoid Chinese leadership with limited awareness of what the West is really like or what its intentions are. We know Xi doesn't read English. We can say who cares what excuses China makes for aggression, but I think it does matter for negotiating the China relationship.
For instance, a recent essay published on ChinaTalk argues that China's specific ideology of moralism and paranoia is a highly exploitable faultline in the China-Russia relationship:
We need to understand if this is the case or if Xi really is just "Putin in bad Winnie the Pooh cosplay". We also need to understand if Xi's power is truly absolute or if he is implicitly constrained by a small circle of opinionated CCP elites.
Similarly, is China actually just really afraid of Taiwan abruptly declaring independence and is happy to maintain the status quo of functional independence? They appear to have a genuine belief that Taiwan is gravitating towards Chinese mainland influence, but what will they do when they realize that perception is false? Do they invade militarily under the theory that the US must have done something underhanded, or do they double-down on a failing influence strategy? How could we go about bursting their bubble in an politically advantageous way?
The China Model: Political Meritocracy and the Limits of Democracy by Daniel Bell (2016) is an excellent read. I'd like to recommend it as an alternative for those seeking to understand China. However, I similarly don't know that it will "win hearts & minds" if they are already made up.
Repeating a point that's been reinforced by the latest humiliation, the fact that Russia's much-feared Black Sea Fleet has been driven back into the shelter of Russian ports, with losses every time its ships venture within range of Ukrainian drones and missles, demonstrates the impossibility of most of the scenarios for the PRC to recapture Taiwan, most obviously seaborne invasion and blockade.
History is important to Xi Jinping Thought in much the same way it is important to Vladimir Putin Thought. Which is to say, the Great Man has a very high opinion of his own historical knowledge, but in fact has a thoroughly distorted view of the history. It's just that anyone who questions the distortions will be dismissed as an enemy of the state.
Totally agreed on the whole condescending tone of, “Well, you just must not have understood what I said.”
There are still useful things to learn from [ed: CCP] propaganda/hackery. But there’s always this unmistakable “If you know what’s good for you…” mob boss attitude that’s NEVER going to play well in the West.
After three weeks in Hangzhou in 2014 finishing a doctorate, I came away extremely impressed with China's gleaming cities, spotless subways, and bullet trains. San Francisco on return looked small and shabby by comparison.
China will almost certainly move on Taiwan, triggering a regional war that will become global. WWIII. They haven't yet finished bulking up militarily; but will likely have sufficient muscle on or after 2031. As a distraction from a bad recession, or some deepening social unrest; but also as an expression of cultural obsession, historical grievance, and manifest destiny.
The only thing that will possibly deter them is a very strong global alliance led by the United States, that also includes Vietnam and India. Where an attack on one is an attack on all.
I'm surprised he even went to print with that term limit stuff and real estate stuff still in there. He had 3-5 years to remove it!
I just found this in the Wikipedia article on Li!
In 2023, a study by Li concluded that local government debt in China was 50% higher than previously estimated by the IMF and World Bank.[9] The study found that the majority of debts were for infrastructure, and the level of debt was unsustainable without central government support.
Why Li did not edit his own book is a mystery. One wonders if his American publisher W. W. Norton & Company was allowed or able to make any editorial suggestions in any significant way.
Can I ask a dumb question - what does it mean for praise to be Straussian?
I agree that we should (and do) have a negative view of CCP governance and many aspects of its economic management, too. It is not so clear what the full implication for US policies should be.
It is surely the case, however, that a more negative view of the CCP should prompt the US at least to remove obstacles to our own economic growth: fiscal deficits, restriction of immigration of skilled and entrepreneurial workers, trade restrictions outside of dependence on China or China-interdictable strategic imports (for example, not EV’s), inefficient incentives for reducing net CO2 emissions instead of taxing them, taxing income instead of taxing consumption.
As a lay history fanatic, I find it distressing that in almost 100% of cases where politicians invoke history it is with the intent of justifying some egregious action that in a civilized world would have no justification.
I have not read the book, and based upon this, I will not rush to do so.
However, I think that importance of history to the Chinese is, indeed, something that could be covered in a short chapter. And, in that regard, it is not so very different from the US -- academic (that is actual, factual history) requires myriad pages and sifting. (And I find it fascinating!) But in and of itself it holds little power over the present. In fact, I find it rather scary how little people in general seem to know about the past.
Rather, it's a nation's historical narrative -- one part truth, one part lies, one part forgetfulness, and then a huge dollop of simplification -- which is important. And yes, I gather it is overwhelmingly important in China. Which considered itself to comprise the civilized world for a lot longer than the Roman Empire existed. Ending in extreme humiliation at the hands of western nations and the Japanese, that did not just include military subjugation, but also overwhelming assumptions of racial inferiority. This occurring recently enough to be remembered by a few people still alive, and by the parents and grandparents of much of the population.
Imagine that the USA actually does devolve into civil war, then we are torn apart and massacred for decades by rivals, and new generations in powerful countries come to see people who look like us as obviously inferior. You can imagine how important our "history" would be to us, if decades later we were rebuilding, and becoming one of the primary world powers again.
So although I take all the other criticisms of this book seriously, I would hope that no one misunderstands the claim that history is of prime importance to the Chinese, nor that this really requires detailed explication.
Thanks for writing this. "China has deep history and understanding her history is key to <<X>>, because the Chinese people / elites think that way" is such a cliched canard, relentlessly being pushed by smart-mouthed pundits like Dalio who themselves know little. It's hilarious because the historical and cultural root for an average contemporary Chinese is severed by none other than CPC.
Nice burn at the end :) kudos
This doesn't sound like a very good book for understanding the Chinese perspective, but I have been looking for a good book explaining Chinese elites perceptions, including and especially any delusional beliefs they may have about history, geopolitics and the West. Let me know if you have any recommendations!
From the US perspective, if you have an accurate stock of facts about the world, modern China looks increasingly aggressive. But many statements from Chinese leadership and thinkers, assert that China is acting defensively and is actually deeply concerned about what is perceives as western belligerence. Taking these statements at face-value (rather than a reflexive propaganda campaign aimed at third parties), it paints a picture of a delusionally paranoid Chinese leadership with limited awareness of what the West is really like or what its intentions are. We know Xi doesn't read English. We can say who cares what excuses China makes for aggression, but I think it does matter for negotiating the China relationship.
For instance, a recent essay published on ChinaTalk argues that China's specific ideology of moralism and paranoia is a highly exploitable faultline in the China-Russia relationship:
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/sino-soviet-split-20
We need to understand if this is the case or if Xi really is just "Putin in bad Winnie the Pooh cosplay". We also need to understand if Xi's power is truly absolute or if he is implicitly constrained by a small circle of opinionated CCP elites.
Similarly, is China actually just really afraid of Taiwan abruptly declaring independence and is happy to maintain the status quo of functional independence? They appear to have a genuine belief that Taiwan is gravitating towards Chinese mainland influence, but what will they do when they realize that perception is false? Do they invade militarily under the theory that the US must have done something underhanded, or do they double-down on a failing influence strategy? How could we go about bursting their bubble in an politically advantageous way?
Thanks for saving me a few yuan!
The China Model: Political Meritocracy and the Limits of Democracy by Daniel Bell (2016) is an excellent read. I'd like to recommend it as an alternative for those seeking to understand China. However, I similarly don't know that it will "win hearts & minds" if they are already made up.
Repeating a point that's been reinforced by the latest humiliation, the fact that Russia's much-feared Black Sea Fleet has been driven back into the shelter of Russian ports, with losses every time its ships venture within range of Ukrainian drones and missles, demonstrates the impossibility of most of the scenarios for the PRC to recapture Taiwan, most obviously seaborne invasion and blockade.
History is important to Xi Jinping Thought in much the same way it is important to Vladimir Putin Thought. Which is to say, the Great Man has a very high opinion of his own historical knowledge, but in fact has a thoroughly distorted view of the history. It's just that anyone who questions the distortions will be dismissed as an enemy of the state.
Loved "Chinasplaning"