We’re all waiting for the much touted Ukrainian Spring Offensive—Springtime for the Banderists in Donbass, or something of the sort. The latest word seems to be that nothing can happen before about the end of April. In the meantime it appears that the US military establishment has leaked classified documents that make it pretty clear that what we’re seeing here is a runaway train headed for disaster.
Let’s start with Big Serge’s latest substack:
Russo-Ukrainian War: Leak Biopsy
A Russian Nesting Doll of Embarrassment
Like a fair number of other commentators, Big Serge initially wondered whether these leaks were either American or Russian disinformation—but like the others Big Serge has come around to the view that these documents (in spite of some incompetent photo shopping) are genuine. Serge begins by outlining his reasons for believing this. I’ll skip that and simply excerpt Serge’s major takeaways for what this tells us to expect from the offensive. It adds up to a seemingly unstoppable disaster:
The most significant implication of the documents is simple: Ukraine’s combat power is significantly degraded, and in particular their mechanized units and artillery forces are in very rough shape.
In combat power terms, therefore, these new brigades are going to be far understrength. Their tank strength, far from being full brigade level, amounts to less than an American armored battalion.
Another key aspect of the force build document is the training schedules. This document dates from the beginning of March, at which point five of the nine brigades were listed at “Training 0% Complete”.
The overall picture, therefore, is rather foreboding for Ukraine.
An ancillary but important note at this point is the fact that, as best we can tell from these documents, Ukraine’s prewar tank park is almost completely gone.
We have known for quite some time that Ukraine is facing a critical shell shortage, but the leaked documents reveal just how acute this issue is.
The overall picture of Ukrainian combat power is atrocious.
Should this force dash itself to pieces against the well prepared Russian forces in the south, an important question would present itself. If this was the best force that NATO could generate for Ukraine, what will the second team look like? Will there even be another force? This understrength and undertrained mechanized package may be Ukraine’s last serious roll of the iron dice.
While the leaked documents certainly do not paint an encouraging picture of Ukraine’s force generation, they also offer a similarly shocking glimpse into the state of American military intelligence.
The fact that the Pentagon does not seem to have any independently generated intelligence about the Ukrainian army is shocking.
One last major revelation from the leak is the greatly degraded state of Ukrainian air defense. Very simply, Ukraine is quickly running out of munitions, especially for its critical S-300 and BUK systems, and it can only endure two or three more wave strikes before breaking completely.
That’s pretty much the bottom line that Serge presents. The whole substack is lengthy and detailed, but very readably presented.
Now let’s turn to The Duran, which is where I got the title for this post:
Zelensky in a box, offensive success in doubt. Neocon Plan B, push Poland into conflict
Alexander Mercouris begins in more or less the same way that Big Serge did. Mercouris had originally been skeptical about the leaked documents, but he’s a believer now, especially after the latest WaPo article. The third iteration of a Ukrainian army is in a woeful state, but is being pushed to launch some sort of offensive against an overwhelmingly superior Russian military that has—up till now—largely been content to “attrit” both the personnel and the equipment of the AUF.
Now, not only is Zelensky in a box, but any passably rational American officials find themselves in a similar box. The “hardliners”—Banderist Neo-Nazis in Ukraine, Neocons in DC—are in control. Within the past week Zelensky was publicly warned by a leading hardliner that to enter into negotiations with Moscow would be an act of “political suicide”. That sounds like a direct threat of what’s called Clintoncide in Arkansas.
In DC, any proposals for a negotiated settlement are met by Nuland and Blinken with preconditions that are obviously unacceptable to Russia. This has been the whole story since 2013. The Neocons have adamantly sabotaged any settlement short of the total defeat of Russia, just as surely as they sabotaged the Nordstream pipeline. Indeed, the very notion of a Chinese negotiated peace is the Neocons’ worst nightmare.
Thus Mercouris argues, as I have in the past, that what we’re seeing with these leaks is a civil war within the US government, the increasingly desperate attempt of the US military establishment—which was totally complicit in undermining the most rational President the US has had in the last 30 years—to extricate themselves from this Neocon inspired disaster emanating from the NSC and the Department of State. Or, at the least, the military’s effort to shift the blame for the looming catastrophe. By exposing the inability of the AUF to deal with the Russian military the hope of Milley and others appears to be to either stop the offensive or to shift the blame ahead of the event. Unfortunately, it all looks like a runaway train. The notion crosses one’s mind that there is no way to stop this train that’s on the wrong tracks. Nothing will be achieved. The plans for the offensive simply don’t match up with Ukraine’s capabilities—and this appears to be the consensus of the IC—no matter what Blinken, Austin, and Nuland are saying. The Neocons are totally entrenched in the National Security Council.
Now, I’m going to embed the same video, but cued at the 27 minute mark—which is where Mercouris turns to the Neocon Plan B—draw Poland openly into the war. This is a harebrained scheme that keeps coming up. Mercouris agrees with me that this is an utterly insane idea, and he cites chapter and verse from history and geopolitics to explain the insanity of it. This is a nine minute segment that’s well worth listening to:
It’s an extended but very well reasoned rant against Neoconism generally, as well as this specific situation. As Mercouris argues, there would be no surer way to bring the entire NATO and EU structure crashing down in ruins than the insane attempt to unite Poland and a rump Ukraine. As he says, it would bring the war into the Heart of Europe. In the meantime, where is the US Senate? Who has bought them off? Aren’t they supposed to be the senior deliberative body of the US government? Instead, the few voices of reason are coming from the House, while the country tears at its own fabric.
It'll be just like Afghanistan. The US role in this whole war has been driven by Foggy Bottom, Pentagon, and Langley bureaucrats, with the elected government more or less allowing them to run on autopilot. But, nonetheless, when the house of cards collapses they'll blame Dementia Joe and avoid any responsibility themselves. There might be some realists left in the National Security Council who will use this opportunity to force Nuland into retirement, maybe Burns or Austin announce long anticipated plans to join the private sector and spend more time with their families, but by and large the people who gave us this fiasco will remain, and like De Toqueville's Bourbons, will have "forgotten nothing, and learned nothing." They'll even have their Bill Kristol's write op-eds blaming Americans for not wanting it badly enough, while they crave revenge against flyover country teenagers who don't want to join the military anymore. But at least those teenagers won't be joining up. That's the real white pill. The next front will be to anticipate a return to Selective Service, and to mobilize boycotts and cancellation campaigns of any prominent citizen who agrees to serve on a local draft board.
“It has long been apparent that the Kiev regime has no real plan, no firm path to victory, and only a tenuous and unfriendly relationship with reality. Far more terrifying is the thought that the Pentagon is much the same.”
I think this, rather than the publicly (now) acknowledged enfeeblement of Ukr’s military, is where the real criminality lies.