Holding out for so long and not withdrawing from Bakhmut has proved to be a Ukrainian tactical master stroke. Once again the Ukrainians have shown they have a winning strategy. Please let this not be talking too soon but Putin is in serious trouble.
Prigozhin has let loose the dogs of chaos and God only knows how this will end. But at very least it's been the best news for the Ukrainians since the Kharkiv offensive or the relatively bloodless capture of Kherson.
If Prigozhin's action proceeds and is not quickly eliminated there are two circles to be squared. Firstly, ISW reports Prigozhin's condemnation of the justification for the war but also observes that this is not a rejection of the war itself, as Prigozhin argued that the fighting in Ukraine is a “holy war with those who offend the Russian people.” So, he dismisses all of the reasons for the war but still supports it. Secondly, he attacks the Defence Minister and Head of the Armed Forces but not the Commander in Chief himself: who is a ..... dupe? What may happen when Russian forces in Ukraine, which have suffered much hardship and brutality and extensive losses think: "why are we still here if there is no justification for it" and "if the Minister of Defence and the Head of the Armed forces are at fault how is it that the Commander in Chief is to be excused"? Will the "barrier troops" still force their comrades onwards at the barrel of a gun?
When the news of a 'coup' first broke, I hoped that you'd weigh in to explain what gets lost in most media cover. You did and you have, and I feel much better informed. Thank you!
thank you, Lawry. It is so helpful that you show both what we know so far, and what we really do not know, both about aims with respect to Ukraine war, and about depth of military loyalty to Putin (or to a rebellion). And thanks also for not drawing premature comparisons w earlier episodes in Russian history.
Putin's isolation may cause his downfall. Prigozhin is too smart to walk into a trap. If he goes to Moscow, he must have allies there and a plan. This is very good news for Ukraine. They are probably revising their strategy towards an attack on many fronts at once the better to divide and disrupt the Russian forces.
What a fascinating time to live through. We're going to have to wait to see how this is resolved, and it could take a long time... I'm enjoying hearing speculation about various different scenarios that are going to unfold, but it really is speculation right now. One thing we can know for sure, though: Putin's regime is threatened and weakened, and badly-- in a way we haven't seen in 20+ years.
It is so difficult to discern the truth of what's happening as it happens: this article is a very helpful guide in that regard. Like many other readers, I am hopeful that whatever transpires from Prigozhin's actions will provide the Ukrainians an opportunity to further weaken and demoralize the Russian invaders. I remain concerned about the outcome: if Prigozhin get's his way, and replaces Shoigu and Gerasimov, will the Russian military efforts become more bloody and possibly roll back Ukraine's recent gains? And if not, would having Prigozhin as Defense Minister mean an even more pugnacious nuclear posture? It is hard to be sanguine about Russia's nuclear intentions, regardless of the eventual outcome of the Wagner affair. Another issue: how do Western governments react; while Prigozhin's rhetoric makes it clear that he is a full on Russian nationalist at heart, his boldness (or rashness) and candor in assessing the Russian shortcomings may indicate he is a pragmatist more swayed by reality than the fantasies being fed to Putin by his subordinates. Is Prigozhin "a man we can do business with?"
"The problem for autocrats like Putin is that they don’t really know what is going on among their people, and that tends to add to the panic." The problem for autocracies in general is that Fearless Leader doesn't want to hear bad news and is likely to punish anyone who brings him any, especially if Fearless Leader is actually a coward. Which should have a familiar ring.
Thank you for doing these posts Lawrence. Every single one has been insightful, lucid and valuable. I’m sure all your other readers agree.
Very interesting. As Sam said last year something along the lines of regimes look impervious until they don’t.
Holding out for so long and not withdrawing from Bakhmut has proved to be a Ukrainian tactical master stroke. Once again the Ukrainians have shown they have a winning strategy. Please let this not be talking too soon but Putin is in serious trouble.
Prigozhin has let loose the dogs of chaos and God only knows how this will end. But at very least it's been the best news for the Ukrainians since the Kharkiv offensive or the relatively bloodless capture of Kherson.
If Prigozhin's action proceeds and is not quickly eliminated there are two circles to be squared. Firstly, ISW reports Prigozhin's condemnation of the justification for the war but also observes that this is not a rejection of the war itself, as Prigozhin argued that the fighting in Ukraine is a “holy war with those who offend the Russian people.” So, he dismisses all of the reasons for the war but still supports it. Secondly, he attacks the Defence Minister and Head of the Armed Forces but not the Commander in Chief himself: who is a ..... dupe? What may happen when Russian forces in Ukraine, which have suffered much hardship and brutality and extensive losses think: "why are we still here if there is no justification for it" and "if the Minister of Defence and the Head of the Armed forces are at fault how is it that the Commander in Chief is to be excused"? Will the "barrier troops" still force their comrades onwards at the barrel of a gun?
When the news of a 'coup' first broke, I hoped that you'd weigh in to explain what gets lost in most media cover. You did and you have, and I feel much better informed. Thank you!
Or, Frankenstein’s monster got out of hand?
I hope that whoever wins will decide to use the outbreak of ‘treason’ as a reason to offer serious concessions to Ukraine
Really interesting. From a western perspective, is the best case scenario for Wagner to cause a huge amount of damage but ultimately lose?
Prigozhin does seem more likely to be the type to use tactical nukes if he had access to them.
thank you, Lawry. It is so helpful that you show both what we know so far, and what we really do not know, both about aims with respect to Ukraine war, and about depth of military loyalty to Putin (or to a rebellion). And thanks also for not drawing premature comparisons w earlier episodes in Russian history.
Putin's isolation may cause his downfall. Prigozhin is too smart to walk into a trap. If he goes to Moscow, he must have allies there and a plan. This is very good news for Ukraine. They are probably revising their strategy towards an attack on many fronts at once the better to divide and disrupt the Russian forces.
Near the end you talk about them 'organising a counter-mutiny'
Is that different to 'putting down the mutiny' or just a different wording for the same thing?
These are deep waters...I think CIA is involved. One doesn’t start a coup with ill equipped forces, as admitted by Prigozhyn himself.
But revolutions after battle losses are a Russian feature- 1905, 1917, 1856
What a fascinating time to live through. We're going to have to wait to see how this is resolved, and it could take a long time... I'm enjoying hearing speculation about various different scenarios that are going to unfold, but it really is speculation right now. One thing we can know for sure, though: Putin's regime is threatened and weakened, and badly-- in a way we haven't seen in 20+ years.
It is so difficult to discern the truth of what's happening as it happens: this article is a very helpful guide in that regard. Like many other readers, I am hopeful that whatever transpires from Prigozhin's actions will provide the Ukrainians an opportunity to further weaken and demoralize the Russian invaders. I remain concerned about the outcome: if Prigozhin get's his way, and replaces Shoigu and Gerasimov, will the Russian military efforts become more bloody and possibly roll back Ukraine's recent gains? And if not, would having Prigozhin as Defense Minister mean an even more pugnacious nuclear posture? It is hard to be sanguine about Russia's nuclear intentions, regardless of the eventual outcome of the Wagner affair. Another issue: how do Western governments react; while Prigozhin's rhetoric makes it clear that he is a full on Russian nationalist at heart, his boldness (or rashness) and candor in assessing the Russian shortcomings may indicate he is a pragmatist more swayed by reality than the fantasies being fed to Putin by his subordinates. Is Prigozhin "a man we can do business with?"
"The problem for autocrats like Putin is that they don’t really know what is going on among their people, and that tends to add to the panic." The problem for autocracies in general is that Fearless Leader doesn't want to hear bad news and is likely to punish anyone who brings him any, especially if Fearless Leader is actually a coward. Which should have a familiar ring.