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SPEAKER 1
Welcome to The Oracle by Polymarket, where we bring you news and analysis from the world's largest prediction market. My name is Will Ward and I'm the editor of The Oracle. Before we begin, I have to remind you that nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal, or any other type of professional advice.
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Anything provided is for informational purposes only and not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or particular market or product. Terms of service on polymarket.com prohibit U.S. persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally. Welcome to the Oracle by Polymarket.
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I'm talking today with Jeff Park, who's the head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Investments, which is a crypto focused investment advisory. Jeff, the first thing that caught my eye was your post in November, where you talked about something that you call the radical portfolio theory, which is basically like a completely new interpretation of the traditional 60-40

🔮 PODCAST: Jeff Park on Prediction Markets and Radical Portfolio Theory

PLUS: DeepSeek, Microstrategy risks and extreme bull case, the next sovereign to buy Bitcoin, fartstrategy, and more.

Jeff Park is the Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, and the author of “Radical Portfolio Theory,” the case for a portfolio with 60% centralized state maximal assets, and 40% decentralized, private assets that are state power resistant.

As part of the 40% “resistance” bucket, Jeff argues for an allocation to professional gambling, which could include things like sports betting, poker, and, yes, prediction market trading. We talk:

  • DeepSeek: Is “phase 1” of the AI trade over?

  • Prediction Markets: Mental tricks from options trading

  • Institutional Adoption of Information Markets: Are the banks coming for our Taylor Swift engagement shares?

  • The Microstrategy Trade: Who’s the sucker at the table and why convertible equity could be a game changer

  • Prediction Rapid Fire

    • Strategic Bitcoin reserve when?

    • Next nation-states to buy BTC

    • Which Microstrategy risks are overblown and what Jeff worries about with the trade

    • One big mistake to avoid in BTC price markets

Follow Jeff on X.


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Disclaimer

Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.