Will the Ceasefire Hold?

We are at a fragile point in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Phase One of the ceasefire completes tomorrow.

Negotiations for phrase two have yet to begin. What happens next?

Why the Ceasefire May Hold

Ceasefires between adversaries like Israel and Hamas do not endure because of goodwill; they hold when both sides see more benefit in restraint than in aggression. There are several reasons why this ceasefire might hold:

1. The hostages are paramount for Israel: Israel wants to destroy Hamas. A ceasefire prevents that. But Israel’s top concern is the return of hostages.

   If Israeli leadership believes they can ensure the return of hostages, they will agree to delay the continuing effort to destroy Hamas. That’s the primary reason the ceasefire has held so far.

2. Hamas wants to return to power: Hamas can return to power when the Israeli army leaves Gaza. The only way that is a possibility is if the hostages return. That only happens with a ceasefire.

3. International Pressure – The United States, European Union, and regional actors such as Egypt and Qatar are heavily invested in brokering and maintaining the ceasefire. Israel, reliant on U.S. support, and Hamas, dependent on regional benefactors, are both susceptible to external leverage.

4. Gaza’s Humanitarian Collapse – The sheer scale of destruction in Gaza creates a practical barrier to immediate resumption of hostilities. While reports suggest Hamas is recruiting more soldiers, Gaza residents likely have little appetite for even more conflict after experiencing a fragile peace.

Why the Ceasefire May Fail

Sadly, if history teaches anything, it is that ceasefires between Israel and Hamas rarely hold. Several key factors could lead to its collapse:

1. The Israeli public overwhelmingly supports the destruction of Hamas: While the return of hostages remains the top priority, October 7th changed Israel fundamentally. The vast majority of Israelis cannot imagine an arrangement where Hamas remains in control of the Gaza Strip and can threaten Israel again. A permanent ceasefire with Hamas remains unlikely.

2. Rogue Actors and Radical Factions – The existence of breakaway groups in Gaza means that even if Hamas formally agrees to a ceasefire, smaller factions could launch independent attacks, forcing an Israeli response and potentially unraveling the entire agreement.

3. Political Pressures on Both Sides – In Israel, a divided governing coalition faces public pressure to maintain security. Any violation of the current ceasefire from Hamas, which is highly likely, would make military retaliation politically unavoidable.

4. Iran– Iran has every incentive to see continued hostilities as a means of distracting Israel from focusing on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. If Iranian proxies or Iran itself threatens Israel, the ceasefire could disintegrate into a broader conflict.

Why It Is in Israel’s Long-Term Interest for the Ceasefire to Hold

Despite its military superiority, Israel has far more to gain from a durable ceasefire than from an indefinite cycle of war. The reasons are strategic, economic, and geopolitical:

1. Avoiding a Military Quagmire – Sustained ground operations in Gaza are a military and political nightmare. While Israel’s military is capable of overwhelming Hamas, the cost in terms of casualties, international condemnation, and prolonged urban warfare is so high.

2. Strengthening Regional Alliances – Israel’s diplomatic normalization efforts with Arab states—likethe Abraham Accords—are jeopardized by continuous warfare in Gaza. A lasting ceasefire enables Israel to maintain and expand its strategic partnerships and economic ties.

3. Preventing a Multi-Front War – Every time Israel engages in major military operations in Gaza, it risks escalation in in the West Bank. A ceasefire allows Israel to focus on its broader security architecture rather than being bogged down in an endless Gaza conflict.

4. Economic and Social Stability – War is costly, not just in terms of defense spending but also in terms of civilian life. The Israeli economy, particularly sectors like tourism and foreign investment, benefits from stability.

   And, of course, continued war has severe social and psychological costs for Israeli citizens, particularly those in the North and South.

Conclusion

I’m a rabbi, not a general, but from a purely strategic standpoint, Israel stands to gain more from a sustained ceasefire than from an indefinite cycle of warfare.

Right now, a lasting pause in hostilities allows Israel to consolidate its regional alliances, strengthen its economy, and further weaken Hamas.