Views on Chidambaram (SC) Lok Sabha constituency

The current MP (Thol Thirumalavan) scraped through to victory by a margin of around 2500 votes in 2019. I think a combination of 4 factors make this contest interesting in 2024:

a) BJP has fielded a candidate and therefore both Vanniar votes (via the PMK) and Mukkulathor votes (via AMMK) can accrue to the NDA. AMMK won 60K votes in 2019, and I think there are about 2.5-3 lakh vanniars in this constituency

b) Incumbent MP victory margins are low. In a three way contest, <5 lakh votes may be enough for victory (in 2019, top 2 candidates won nearly 5 lakh votes each.)

c) AIADMK has fielded a fresh face who is facing rebellion from an ex-MP from the same seat. AIADMK vote may therefore splinter.

d) BJP candidate is an mayor from Vellore who was in AIADMK and seems like a good campaigner.