A Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson faces steep odds

The great wars of the 20th century pivoted on counter-offensives: the Allied landings at Normandy; Douglas MacArthur’s surprise attack on Inchon in the Korean war; Norman Schwarzkopf’s “left hook” to cut off Iraqi forces in Kuwait. Now Ukraine, with a fifth of its territory in Russian hands, hopes to join that list. But a much-vaunted operation in southern Kherson province seems to have been overhyped. That may be intentional.

For months Ukrainian officials have hinted that an attack in the south is imminent. In late July, American-supplied himars rocket launchers began destroying bridges to Kherson city to isolate the Russian forces west of the Dnieper river. On August 9th, a spectacular attack on Russia’s Saky air base in Crimea, beyond the range of Ukraine’s known weapons, was depicted by Ukrainian officials as the start of that offensive. Kherson would be liberated by the end of the year, boasted Dmytro Marchenko, a Ukrainian general.