One of the most consequential projects I’ve been involved in my long political career has been my work in helping craft a modern strategy for the Democratic Party towards Hispanic voters.
As part of our new Get to 55 project, I will be reviving some of my work in this space and bringing its insights into this conversation about how we expand our coalition and deliver a consequential blow to MAGA next year.
The video above, and text below, were released on October 19th, 2022. I intend on updating this video and analysis to include 2022 election data in the coming weeks. But the election data will only confirm the analysis that is already there, and bolster the assertion that the Democratic Party’s Hispanic strategy has been among its most successful party wide strategies in the past generation of American politics. Enjoy all. There is lots of good news in here.
Video/Analysis: Democrats and the Hispanic Vote (10/19/22)
We are pleased to release a new 25 minute data-filled presentation which reviews the history of the Hispanic vote over the past two decades, and discusses what we are seeing this year.
The presentation's toplines:
The net raw vote margin for Democrats with Hispanic voters has increased from 700,000 in 2004 to between 4.5m and 5.4m votes in 2020. That is growth, not erosion.
In the past 20 years Democrats have turned the heavily Mexican-American parts of the US – AZ, CA, CO, NM, NV, TX – far more blue. 2020 was the best year for Democrats in the SW – AZ, CO, NM, NV – in 80 years. 2022 could be better.
Even with their gains in 2020 Rs fell further behind in this region (yes, erosion). If they can’t make further gains here they will fall further and further behind, and the region will keep slipping away from them.
Background For the Presentation
12/24/22 - Natasha Korecki cites this analysis in a new NBC News article, Republicans Struggle in the Southwest as Latinos Stick with Democrats.
Memo: The Remarkable Success of the Democratic Party's Hispanic Strategy
2020 Was The Best Year for Dems in the Southwest in 80 Years. 2022 May Be Even Better.
Learn more about our May 2022 polls in AZ, NV, PA showing Dems making gains with Hispanics.
Analysis: The Southwest Has Become A Democratic Stronghold (2020)
In Florida Democrats Lost Ground With All Important Hispanic Voters (2018)
Among "New Coalition" Voters in 2018, Dems Have Best Performance Ever
Notes On The GOP's Erosion In The Southwest (2017)
Trump Is Right To Be Worried About Arizona (And Texas Too) (2017)
Thank you, very much, for providing the text links for
those of us whom are deaf
and hard of hearing.
I appreciate your writing. Please consider and explain outliers or exceptions, such as Florida, or heavily latino areas in even our now very red Iowa .https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/florida-latinos-turned-favor-republicans-rcna57167
If you dismiss areas in NY, Texas, Florida, etc.that still went R, you are exposing your vulnerabilities.
Ralph, in the links below the video you can find my warning to Democrats about Florida Hispanics slipping away from us after the 2018 election; and my core post-election analysis which you can find on the site talks about the slippage we saw in CA, FL, NY and TX in 2022. It's all in my broader analysis as you will see if you dig deeper into all the material here. But my goal with this presentation was to liberate our discourse from the red wavy sky is falling story about Hispanics which dominated our discourse in 2022, and was never true.
People forget how successful Rs were at attracting conservative Latinos from Reagan through Bush Jr. They pursued a long-term strategy that was working pretty well through 2004, when Bush got 44% of the Latino vote.
We should not be surprised (or panic!) when older and/or rural Latino communities, eg Florida and RGV/Texas, swing right. If we keep our eye on the prize and continue to cultivate the majority of Latinos who are inclined our way (younger, urban and suburban), we'll come out ahead.
Ruben Gallego should be our north star here. Progressive, but down to earth, vocally patriotic, a veteran, and shunning Latinx and other such "woke speak", which alienates those more moderate/conservative Latinos who are otherwise inclined toward Ds.
Thanks Simon. I would appreciate some more of your insight as to what happened to Iowa. There were red flags, pun intended, but the party structure failed to act. Why did the party act in some states, and not others, or what was so different about how Democratic values played out over the last few years in Iowa?
Hi there. Thanks for all you are doing, Simon.
Something rubs me wrong about the phrase “Democratic Strategy for Hispanics”. It feels sort of “us“ and “them” even though having a strategy for various demographics makes sense. In this context, it feels like the “strategy” is more important than the equality and inclusion at the core of the Dem party, that the marketing is more important than the actual content.
Respectfully,
S
Regardless of the polls over sampling Republican's base, Biden continues to gain 98% of the Democrat base, over 50% of women, over 60% of voters age 30 and under. We need to get voters to the poll in every election.