One thing that might help in certain parts of this post is to split up the concept "prediction" into two different concepts, "visceral expectations" versus "intellectual predictions". "Visceral expectations" are related to valence, aversion, desire, sweating, goosebumps, all that stuff, whereas "intellectual predictions" are the things that you consciously believe.
I think that intellectual predictions can impact visceral expectations a little bit—more than zero—but definitely not completely. The two can stay discrepant. For example, if you've never done cocaine, and you read in a textbook that cocaine feels really intensely good, and you completely sincerely believe the textbook, then now you have a very strong (intellectual) prediction that cocaine feels good. But you still only a weak visceral expectation that cocaine feels good. So you don't suddenly start craving cocaine the way an addict does. Then maybe you actually try cocaine yourself, and NOW the visceral expectations regarding cocaine get strongly updated.
Anyway, I think the P of RPE is visceral expectations, not intellectual predictions.
One thing that might help in certain parts of this post is to split up the concept "prediction" into two different concepts, "visceral expectations" versus "intellectual predictions". "Visceral expectations" are related to valence, aversion, desire, sweating, goosebumps, all that stuff, whereas "intellectual predictions" are the things that you consciously believe.
I think that intellectual predictions can impact visceral expectations a little bit—more than zero—but definitely not completely. The two can stay discrepant. For example, if you've never done cocaine, and you read in a textbook that cocaine feels really intensely good, and you completely sincerely believe the textbook, then now you have a very strong (intellectual) prediction that cocaine feels good. But you still only a weak visceral expectation that cocaine feels good. So you don't suddenly start craving cocaine the way an addict does. Then maybe you actually try cocaine yourself, and NOW the visceral expectations regarding cocaine get strongly updated.
Anyway, I think the P of RPE is visceral expectations, not intellectual predictions.