United States | Split decision

The Democrats are likely to lose the House but keep the Senate

Meet our election-forecasting model for America’s 2022 midterms

Voters cast their ballots at a voting center in Brooklyn, New York on November 2, 2021. - New Yorkers head to the polls in a mayoral election that is virtually guaranteed to elect Black former policeman Eric Adams as the next leader of America's biggest city. (Photo by Ed JONES / AFP) (Photo by ED JONES/AFP via Getty Images)

In the 40 midterm elections to have taken place since 1862, the president’s party has lost seats in the House of Representatives 36 times. America’s midterm elections, which take place on November 8th, are almost always a referendum on the occupant of the White House and his party. (All seats in the House are contested, as are 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats.) But unusually, a former president looms large in these elections. And Donald Trump appears to be a drag on Republicans’ prospects.

This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline "Split decision"

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