Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2030?
14
119
Ṁ346Ṁ310
2030
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Creating markets for @ScottAlexander's predictions here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/semaglutidonomics
(all predictions are conditional on no singularity or global catastrophe)
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@Chocobo Yeah, I added the inflation-adjusted part because I think that makes more sense. If you adjust for inflation for one of the questions, then I think you should do it for both.
Related questions
Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?
73% chance
Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2040?
85% chance
Will Matt Kaeberlein start taking semaglutide/ozempic by 2030?
41% chance
Will Bryan Johnson try semaglutide/tirzepatide in 2024?
24% chance
Will Medicare or Medicaid cover weight loss drugs by 2029?
76% chance
Will a semaglutide analogue be included in a Sims-like game by EOY 2029?
79% chance
Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?
31% chance
Will Jose Luis Ricon try semaglutide/tirzepatide in 2024?
20% chance