And here is a bit more: I am a big fan of Scott's, but this is a gross misrepresentation of what I wrote. Scott ignores my critical point that this is all happening anyway (he should talk more to people in DC), does not engage with the notion of historical reasoning (there is only a narrow conception of rationalism in his post), does not consider Hayek and the category of Knightian uncertainty, and does not consider the all-critical China argument, among other points. Or how about the notion that we can't fix for more safety until we see more of the progress? Or the negative bias in rationalist treatments of this topic? Plus his restatement of my argument is simply not what I wrote. Sorry Scott! There are plenty of arguments you just can't put into the categories outlined in LessWrong posts.
And here is a bit more: I am a big fan of Scott's, but this is a gross misrepresentation of what I wrote. Scott ignores my critical point that this is all happening anyway (he should talk more to people in DC), does not engage with the notion of historical reasoning (there is only a narrow conception of rationalism in his post), does not consider Hayek and the category of Knightian uncertainty, and does not consider the all-critical China argument, among other points. Or how about the notion that we can't fix for more safety until we see more of the progress? Or the negative bias in rationalist treatments of this topic? Plus his restatement of my argument is simply not what I wrote. Sorry Scott! There are plenty of arguments you just can't put into the categories outlined in LessWrong posts.