The Union State is a supranational organization, composed of Russia and Belarus since its creation in 1999. It is formally open to membership applications from other countries. Union State members share freedom of migration to work or live in...

On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass...

In September 2023, the Swiss parliament passed the "Federal Law on a Secure Power Supply with Renewable Energies," which was designed to make transition to renewable energy sources easier, though aspects of the legislation raised the ire of...

This market will resolve positively if Elon Musk is discovered to have fathered (or legally adopted) another child by July 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market can be resolved by a consensus of credible reporting, or official statements by Elon Musk....

This question is part of the Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee and was inspired by this post.

Cruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy self-driving vehicles. In late...

Following a $464 million civil fraud judgment against Donald Trump, the former President has sought to appeal the outcome of the trial. However, his pursuit of such an appeal first requires that he post a bond in the full amount of the judgement. ...

A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial...

As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, (source). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.

"3...

Cultivated meat is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of...

Former President Trump has registered to run for reelection in 2024, though he faces several legal obstacles in the near term (NPR, BBC). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here..

Murray Fisher and Pete Malinowski created the Billion Oyster Project in 2014 to restore oysters to New York Harbor. These oysters offer many ecosystem services; they can help decontaminate waters of certain pollutants, act as storm-surge barriers,...

Lake Vostok is the largest subglacial lake in Antarctica. It is one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world but exists beneath approximately 4000 meters of ice.

Lake Vostok is poorly explored. Scientists have recovered microbial DNA from the...

With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms, thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter (6th largest account), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number...

Will we detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

Gravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a...

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There is a large variation in the median age of...

India and Pakistan have tense relations and a history of conflict, in recent years involving a number of skirmishes at the contested border.

Tensions heightened in June of 2020 when Indian and Chinese forces clashed in hand to hand combat along the...

This market shall resolve to "Yes" if Alexander Lukashenko holds the office of President of Belarus without interruption through December 31st, 2023. Resolution Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/
The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled....

Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question)....

Large Language Models (LLMs) are famously data hungry, with the largest among today's models requiring >1T tokens for optimal training. This high sample complexity has several important implications. For one thing, as reported by Epoch recently,...

This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This market will be settled according to the...