It's official: Luxon missed out on a honeymoon
IPSOS poll rates new government as no better than the last one.
A new IPSOS poll of New Zealanders has rated the present coalition government at 4.6 – on a scale of zero (‘abysmal’) to ten (‘outstanding’). That’s as poor a rating as the previous Labour government got before they lost the election.
We’d normally expect a ‘honeymoon’ boost in a new government’s rating, if only due to people feeling glad about a change. But the Luxon government was mired in controversy even before the coalition agreements were drafted.
The IPSOS poll’s track-record is good, as it matches other polls, showing the Labour-led government on a high of 7.6 in mid-2020, and then steadily declining through Labour’s second term, down to 4.7 in September 2023.
Since its formation late last year, the Luxon government made a lot of noise about change and about getting things done. And they have indeed made changes and largely ticked off their 49 goals over the first 100 days. But their rating in this poll is no better than Labour’s was at rock bottom.
The IPSOS poll was run in late February, after the country had gone through a lot of debate and angst, thanks to ACT’s proposed Treaty bill and to controversial policies such as the disestablishment of the Māori Health Authority and the return of the ‘social investment’ model in welfare.
In the IPSOS poll, the most frequently cited of the ‘most important issues facing New Zealand today’ was unsurprisingly the cost-of-living crisis, or inflation. That’s been the leading issue in this poll for the last 12 months. As inflation is trending downwards lately, and hopefully will continue to decline, the cost of living can be expected to decline as a leading concern for the public, to be replaced by something else. ‘Law and order’ has declined as a major concern in the IPSOS polls since hitting a high in May 2023.
What, then, have Luxon & Co got to do to win the confidence of Kiwis? If there’s no honeymoon, can things only get better … or worse?
The attention-grabbing shenanigans of Winston Peters with his State of the Nation speech on Sunday will have done nothing to boost public confidence in the coalition government. The deputy PM publicly undermined the minister of finance ahead of her first Budget, leaving her to face questions on Monday morning on RNZ. Peters didn’t make it clear as to which of his points were being made as leader of his party and which as a member of the governing coalition. He breached the Cabinet Manual’s convention of collective responsibility; hence he breached the requirements of the coalition agreement. That would normally see a minister sacked – except that Peters is indispensable for Luxon’s majority.
The IPSOS poll is unsurprising given the government's 'first 100 days' has seen an almost childlike enthusiasm for repealing legislation under urgency, combined with a shambolic, "what will Winston and David say/do next" vibe. It may be that we have a coalition of 3 parties who do not share a fundamental political philosophy (or Luxon''s political inexperience), but if this government is to endure, what will matter is the capacity to focus on things that matter. NZF and ACT are a worry here. In education the pragmaticism of Erica Stanford's focus on things that make a practical difference in the classroom (eg banning cell phones, a greater emphasis on literacy and numeracy and curriculum reform) could well be undermined by the headline grabbing antics of "ban school lunches" David and "rewrite the sex education curriculum" Winston.
The problem is not Luxon & Co's. The problem is the number of sniveling welfare recipients, uneducated yahoos, hand-wringing greenies, pearl-clutching empathizers and amoral half-wits we have bred in this country. Too many of them and guess which way they think - if they think at all.
They are not going to give a centre right coalition credit for nibbling at their beliefs and lifestyles.
I am 77. This nation used to be Conservative Centre right with the odd time a left party taking hold of the reigns. I see a future where the opposite will now be the case, simply because of the type of thinking that memes its way through the fabric of this nation now.