Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
91
249
Ṁ14KṀ1.7K
2030
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Anything highly credible, such as what happened with SBF. Doesn't need to be legally charged.
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
I've created a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
Related questions
Will Alex Abramson (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
17% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
4% chance
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
25% chance
Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035?
32% chance
Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in any country before 2030?
3% chance
Will Marc Andreessen be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
9% chance
Will Scott Alexander get divorced?
24% chance
Will Scott Alexander bang Eliezer before 2025?
1% chance
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
4% chance
Will William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
2% chance