21 Miles of Obstacles

The southern offensive could determine the fate of the war, many military analysts believe. Much of Ukraine is rolling steppe and forests, but the south is especially flat, making it more dangerous for advancing troops.

Ukrainian officials have said the counteroffensive is going as planned, even though it’s clear, through open source accounts, that Ukrainian vehicles — including recently supplied western tanks and armored personnel carriers — are being damaged and destroyed. Kyiv’s formations have managed to take several small villages, but Ukrainian casualties are mounting.

The slow pace is most likely the result of several factors. Russian troops have shown competency fighting defensively, and Moscow’s formations have improved their tactics since earlier in the war.

The short-lived rebellion by the Wagner group on Saturday hasn’t had an immediate effect on the front line in southern Ukraine. No Russian soldiers left their positions to come to Russia’s defense. But the Ukrainian military may be able to capitalize on the chaos and weakening morale to try to make some gains, according to analysts.

The terrain is a formidable obstacle in and of itself. Here is how the physical features of southern Ukraine combine to give Russian defenders an advantage.

Open Fields

Flat, open fields like the ones that dot southern Ukraine are optimal terrain for a defending army.

Crops such as wheat, corn and sunflowers may provide advancing Ukrainian infantry limited concealment from Russian troops positioned in adjacent tree lines. They’ll do little to stop shrapnel and rifle fire.

Ukrainian troops will also have to be supported by tanks and armored personnel carriers, lumbering vehicles with the heavy armament needed to dislodge Russian forces from their entrenchments. These vehicles are not only easily seen, but easily heard.

For Ukraine to retake territory, this pairing — armored vehicles and infantry — will need to traverse routes that Russia has extensively mined. Open fields and side roads will need to be cleared of the lethal explosives for any chance of success.

The West has supplied mine-clearing equipment, including explosive charges that can clear an open lane through a minefield. But even with this equipment, the task is daunting. Footage from the offensive’s early days showed stalled mine-clearing bulldozers and destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles. Ukrainian soldiers have said that even when mines have been cleared, Russians are quick to replace them.

As the Ukrainians and their engineers move to clear mines so that their comrades can advance, they will be under intense artillery, tank fire and, in some cases, helicopter fire.

Tree lines

The tree lines that border fields in Ukraine’s south are natural defensive points. In the summer, foliage is fully grown, camouflaging Russian defenses from aerial observation.

Under dense foliage the Russians can conceal tanks, anti-tank missile teams and infantry units. Further from the front lines, artillery and air defenses can also be positioned among the greenery. This combination is sufficient to thwart or delay a Ukrainian advance, so artillery fire before any attack, targeting these defensive points, is essential.

Throughout the war a common practice has been to shell these points simply to destroy trees and bushes and expose the underlying bunkers and trenches.

Tree lines also help break line of sight for air defenses. Well-trained Russian helicopter pilots can fly at tree level, protecting themselves from short-range anti-air missiles before popping up and firing at Ukrainian troops.

Reinforced trenches

With more than a year to prepare for a Ukrainian offensive in the south, Russian forces have had ample time to construct a dense network of fortifications. Throughout the war Ukrainian troops have noted that Russian trenches are frequently well built and deep, protecting the troops within from artillery fire.

Often, troops on both sides will conceal the tops of their trenches with tree limbs and logs, so advancing formations won’t be able to see them until it’s too late.

Because trenches are low-lying, they are also a drawback for defending forces. Without proper communication between adjacent fortifications, they can be easily flanked or bypassed.

A recent video posted by a Ukrainian special operations unit shows just that: A small team of soldiers infiltrates a Russian trench with disastrous effect and quickly kills those unaware within.

Urban areas

Interspersed between the fields and tree lines are a smattering of small rural villages and towns, another man-made obstacle that will slow any attack. Settlements are often built along important terrain, such as rivers, forests or what little high ground is available in southern Ukraine.

Two- and three-story buildings give Russian units important observation points. Buildings can shield vehicles from artillery fire. Rural roads are natural choke points that can be mined and covered with machines and anti-tank missile teams.

In earlier campaigns in eastern Ukraine small villages were almost completely destroyed as both sides sought to ensure that defending forces were left with little protection. Clearing villages of enemy forces is also a time-consuming and dangerous task as buildings are often booby-trapped by retreating troops.

Ukraine has managed to retake several villages thus far into the offensive. But it is unclear if Ukrainian forces will have enough resources to breach Russian defenses around the larger settlements such as Tokmak. The city had a prewar population of about 30,000 people.

What happens next?

Ukraine spent months amassing powerful Western weaponry and training tens of thousands of soldiers for its counteroffensive. But Russia also had time to prepare its dense network of defensive structures, greatly improving its ability to hold its ground.

So far Ukraine’s gains have been modest, relative to the overall military objective of severing the Russian-controlled land bridge between western Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea.

Although military analysts warn that it’s too early to draw conclusions about the counteroffensive’s progress, Ukrainian leaders are trying to tamp down expectations of swift territorial gains.

“We would definitely like to make bigger steps,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a BBC interview. But he insisted that he remained confident and suggested that expectations of rapid success were unrealistic.

The counteroffensive is likely to play out over several more weeks, if not months, according to military analysts. Ukraine still has forces held in reserve, so it remains to be seen if it can surmount its many obstacles and make deeper advances in the south.