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The consequences for the US are catastrophic. The US position in the gulf has been destroyed. Iran has successfully defied the US and retains the Hormuz weapon. It is now the regional hegemon of the gulf. Even more significantly, deterrence in Asia is now dead.

For if US bases cannot survive in the gulf, there is no possibility of their survival in Asia. If the US gets itself into a war, it will get kicked out of the region in days with no prospect of making it back.

This is a vastly more significant defeat than Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan, which were all counterinsurgency wars where the US abandoned the effort to control the political outcomes because it did not want to suffer any more costs.

The devil's in the details. Not all strategic defeats are made equal. Germany was also strategically defeated in World War II, but the consequences it suffered were on a vastly different scale than the US now. Some strategic defeats change the global balance of power. Others change very little. This war underscored Iranian control over t…

Apr 2
at
12:54 AM
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