Further to my last, my "friend" has offered his comment/assessment which he concludes will result in Xis' removal in October. However I don't concur with him. Here's his response: "There is no doubt that an internal war is being waged between Xi's Maoist camp and the PLA, headed by Zhang Youxia and Liu Yuan. To be clear, Xi is no longer in control of the PLA. In the last 12 months 9 senior generals have been purged and none have been replaced. For the last 12 years this has been the responsibility of Xi, yet the positions remain vacant. This is just one example of many that indicates Xi is no longer in control of the PLA and his influence in the Standing Committee is reduced. The senior leadership of the CCP is currently in Beidaihe planning for the fourth plenum due to occur in October. This is where the fate of Xi will be determined. Interestingly security at Beidaihe has, for the first time ever, not been entrusted to the CSB but rather the PLA.

You need to keep in mind this is China and not the West. The reputation and primacy of the party is key to every decision made. Xi is inextricably wound up with that reputation as are the reputations of those that allowed him to hold the key positions in CCP Politburo Standing Committee. A swift political execution of Xi on the world stage would never be allowed to occur, the Party would be perceived to lose too much face. What you need to watch for are the very subtle changes." As I mentioned, I don't agree with this assessment but it's interesting nonetheless. Your thoughts?

Richard Thomas