Now that almost a day has passed and the event has settled in, we can draw some conclusions or at least ask some informed questions about the whos and whys, the cui bonos. The biggest question on everyone’s mind is who was responsible for the Kakhovka dam, and as a corollary, who does it benefit more?
Russia should definitely continue to “go slow.” In fact, they should “go even more slowly.” Why not? Give the Ukuleles and their NATO/US puppet masters more time to cause havoc and win the propaganda war. It’s 7D Chess after all, right?
Unreal. Take the goddamn gloves off, flatten this shit hole, and end this nonsense already. Dare NATO to intervene. Bring it on!
Lost my nerve? Really, man? This is reality. Look at the situation now. Russia is taking too long and giving them too many opportunities to wreck havoc and distract. They need to drop the hammer in earnest, ASAP.
We never have all the facts, the president and the general staff aren't reading military bloggers or social media to get their strategy, they get information we cant even imagine. So all the actions taken are most likely taking into account information invisible to us, and it would be impossible at this point to see the full picture even with what appears to be wrong actions (I am not talking about tactical errors here and there, those are normal for any army even the mythical Third Reich). So I think Russia can drop the hammer, but the benefit for such an action outweighs the long term costs, so far at least.
Yeah, my position is basically that, if Russia could "drop the hammer" they would. They clearly can't at the moment because of a variety of reasons, many of which I've painstakingly covered for months. They're doing the best they can against the entire imperial forces of NATO, and they're winning but it may not be as 'hollywood' fancy and exciting as some people appear to expect
We in the West have been groomed from an early age on "Hollywood results" to the point that even in the face of defeat after defeat we still expect those same 'wunder' results. Even critical minds are losing patience, desiring the "hammer to drop" - this being little more than evidence of our own prior brainwashing.
Dude, the Ukuleles (aka NATO) just blew up a huge fucking dam, but you think it would be "Hollywood fancy" for Russia to drop the hammer and light up Kiev?
I have to think Putin is still courting world opinion. So far I believe it has been the right call. If you are in a country outside the US vassal states you are looking for a winner. If you go Roman on the place you will win the war but it might lose you friends. I suppose this was more accurate at the start of the war. HOWEVER one must understand where we are right now.
We are getting very damn close to some really bad shit IMHO. I don't believe the Western Elites can simply let go of their destiny/legacy. They could finish gutting the US/EU and live a comfortable life somewhere that will be relatively peaceful. The future goes through Eurasia I have no doubt. They have plenty of leverage at the moment to negotiate a good deal for themselves and family. The US/EU are nations with extreme debt and a confused population. It is this population that is the key to pulling this transition of power off without "the bomb" going off.
I believe Putin is going after this demographic US/EU citizens. The only way he can get their admiration is appearing to be reasonable. I must admit it worked on me. Tucker Carlson opened up (first Twitter show) with this very topic. I suggest everyone watch it should be no trouble to find. Elon and Tucker are wise to pound on this war and turn public opinion in the West firmly against it. 3 videos ago Simp included some videos of Scholz & Trudea being heckled pretty good. Now multiply those incidents by 100,000 (arbitrary as I have no clue how many would be needed) and you probably get the point.
Obviously the MIC's and Round Tables could take over and call for a nuke strike but maybe they would flinch? I believe it is the only way to solve this without major loss of life. I am excited to see RFK Jr out there giving them hell. I hope he can do for the Democrats what Trump did for the Republicans. I am not counting on the US 2024 election by the way. I don't suspect we have until then before a game changer of some kind develops.
They're cancelling and censoring anyone who tries to get accurate information to the American people. 95% of the American people have no clue what's really going on or just don't give a shit. All they care about is weed, sportsball, and getting laid.
Russia needs to take the gloves off and destroy Ukulele. Completely and totally.
Believe me I know. The ONLY thing that definitely can snap them out of it is severe pain. Probably the type we consider to be civilization changing. You’re right they’re hopelessly snowed under. Something that could very well work is fear.
I admit both suggestions are long shots but it’s the best I got. TPTB have no choice they will keep escalating until it all goes to hell I think. They’re capable of anything to protect what is their (what they consider).
Russia causing Americans severe pain will just cause them to hate Russians. They won't blame their own government because the indoctrination is too thorough, and the propaganda ubiquitous. Besides, what the people want doesn't matter. By slowly creating facts on the ground Russia puts the American rulers in a position where they are forced to concede to Russia's demands. The rest of us are just collateral damage, whichever side we support.
I’ve lost a lot of friends trying to talk sense into them about Putin, Russiagate, Covid, Syria, etc. The brainwashing is too complete. The propaganda too pervasive. School S no longer teach critical thinking. It is now rude or uncool to question the narrative. One cannot argue with stupid.
Oh, you mean like write a letter to my congress critter. And get a nice fancy letterheaded, propaganda note back that is nothing but pablum? Been there, done that. They only care about their next lobbyist payola.
I had no clue about any of this when it officially kicked off. I was the “couldn’t find Ukraine on the map” guy. However I do appreciate critical thinking. Seeing the actions of Western leaders after covid I would not put anything past them.
There might be some others coming around. I’m banking on that because really it’s all I got. Any other path is a perilous journey. Even this path probably involves major restructuring of Western Nations as they lose their dominance. At least it allows for the existence of humanity.
IMO one thing Putin does NOT want to do is have the Western populations clamoring for war. He’s done a great job of making sure that hasn’t happened. If you doubt they could be whipped up into a frenzy I point you to two years of the covid madness. It seems most of the Western people are squarely against our involvement. Admittedly it’s probably more for selfish reasons though. Doubt they give a fuck about dead Ukrainians or Russians. They don’t seem to give a shit if any whites get beaten or bludgeoned over here. They are just upset that money is going to Ukraine which is dominated by white males as opposed to their favorite LBGTQ group.
Idk man it’s a mess and there’s a lot of moving parts.
Good on you, man. As someone who was knowledgeable about all this before I appreciate your open mind. I don’t think Putin is terribly concerned with the opinions of Europeans and Americans. He is very concerned with the opinions of the RoW. He’s acting in a way to keep them onside and present an alternative to the euro-merican order. He won’t go shock and awe unless forced because that’s what the US would do.
I assume that the sino-Russian plan is engineered collapse of the US empire. Stretch it, push it but don’t break it. Let it break from its own internal contradictions. It may be the only way to avoid nuclear war. It may not work.
Isn’t it funny how it all seems to be winding down? I guess cranking up is a better euphemism. It does seem like people are opening up. I have gotten my hopes up before. At the same time people have begun to learn who the real assholes happen to be. These assholes can’t operate at high efficiency unless they’re in the shadows. Gonna see how those vampire bastards do in the light.
When I say Putin is courting Westerners. I do not believe for a moment that either Putin or Xi; Russia and China give a flying rats ass about U.S. citizens. I should have made that more clear. No, you see what is happening to the Ukrainian Army. Mr Putin is all business. I suspect Xi to be no different. They simply want us to be kind and mind our space. However we know they, China especially, are slated to remove us from the throne. Russia was supposed to be finished by now or close and Globohomo was to be sharpening his axe licking his chops glaring at China. The West got all this started for a reason the primary one is securing their order by weakening those 2.
Boat China & Russia are so so at the propaganda piece. At least when held to the status of our own. All they ever had to do was wait. Another reason China didn’t want Trump gone. Lol the right tends to blame them ya know. Like Russia, I don’t really have any complaints about what they (China) have done since 2000. And I no longer have ANY faith in the CIA MIC St Dept much less the media who handle their affairs.
Gave a pretty good dress up on this thread somewhere describing the kind of “Unpredictable” the US is. We are the wild eyed man in a trench coat kinda unpredictable. Except instead of a sawed-off we have a whole array of the nastiest weapons in history.
I don’t believe anyone trusts us anymore. I suspect half of our vassal states want to haul ass. AND this is why the people MUST be energized. Probably should have clarified that too. The people must put continuous support on their reps. It’s the only chance we have to do this without a lot of blood and guts. And even that is no guarantee.
I suspect China and Russia are looking for way to kick over the apple cart at this point. They’re winning and will win the long game. Hell they have already won IMHO. Think about this tho. Simp has mentioned; everyone has: What in Gods name is Zelensky/NATO doing this for? Is really a damn good question. This puts us back in the man in a trench coat scene. If either R or C pull anything over here that will catch the public’s eye it will be a large expose. It will be a suicide mission; they would have been on a one way ticket.
Do I think their target will be government figure types? No! They will go after the power grid most likely. Have heard ours is incredibly weak. Dennis Quaid (actor) just released a movie about it. From what I understand it wouldn’t take much to set off a cascade of events. Maybe 10 teams of 3 to shut down power to the country. The objective would be to cripple any retaliatory strikes. Try to shut down a first strike as well. I say 10 teams but there will be no doubt more than that.
It’s the only thing I can think of. No clue if this is accurate but putting 2 and 2 together with what I know. Over and out!
This is exactly what I've been saying: Buckle up, kids. This conflict is going to get very ugly and a dam break is only the beginning. The West will configure the battlefield and redesign the concept of warfare in an attempt to win. They likely won't, but victory will require more from the Russian forces than hiding behind third echelon defenses. The Russian army will need to fight like it hasn't had to in 80 years.
Driving safely on public roads is a much more difficult problem than flying a disposable drone. Still, I doubt that the west is capable of producing AI drone swarms for a variety of reasons.
Don't need AI if you have FPV drones, of which Russia apparently has thousands. Maybe they are preparing such an approach. Takes time to train the pilots though, it's not as easy as it looks like to fly one.
Given this person doesn't contribute to the war effort by their own admission, this viewpoint will not be taken seriously and in fact the opposite will happen.
Given that you admit you don't contribute to the war effort, I don't see any reason to take your position that We should escalate seriously. Maybe try calling up the FBI/CIA for a raise.
I'm not affiliated with the FBI/CIA, dipshit. People can disagree with you and believe it's necessary to escalate (which is now very obviously the case after the Ukuleles have blown the dam and caused the subsequent flooding) and not have anything to do with the FBI/CIA.
On the first read, I missed the sarcasm. I personally think Russia going as slow as possible while NATO keeps piling arms and money into the Ukrainian trash compactor for Russia to destroy is a great way to grind down US global hegemony. It is the perfect low risk strategy.
The problem starts if the Collective West wants a ceasefire and a DMZ. What does Russia do then? My guess would be Russia would escalate to somehow keep the pot boiling and to not allow Ukraine and NATO a pause to rearm.
You should not discount a possibility that Russia will welcome a ceasfire with open arms, re-embrace the West, etc. if enough oligarch yachts and bank accounts will be returned. Putin's rule, like any other, continues until enough of the elites support him. If they can both save face and get their lifestyle back i think they'll urge him to negotiate.
So far, though, i don't see the West making any steps towards any negotiated settlement. After the dam story any such talks will be viewed as support for Putin's genocide.
I don't know what Russia would do if the collective West asked for a cease fire and a DMZ, but they should say "No" and carry on. The only question would be their relationship with China. Listening to Martyanov and Scott Ritter last night, I got the impression that China will need Russia's military help if the US starts something over Taiwan, so China may not feel like pressing Russia into a settlement against their interests.
I think China would very much like the Russian meat-grinding in Ukraine to continue and keep the US tied down for as long as possible in the proxy war. They know time is on their side. China will far outgrow the US In economic and military strength and geopolitical influence by 2030.
If Russia doesn’t take off the gloves, completely flatten Kiev and the rest of Ukulele, and wrap this shit up ASAP, NATO/US will destroy even more vital infrastructure in terrorist-style attacks. It’s time for Russia to wrap it up.
Fortunately the Russians don’t base their military strategy on their emotion like certain internet war strategists would have them do, resulting in their continued success in systematically destroying the Nazi regime and its Atlantacist benefactors.
I generally agree with your analysis here, but I live in a very drought-prone area, so I know that the mud that will be left behind by the receding Kakhovka reservoir will be completely dried out into hard-compacted sand within 4-8 weeks depending on how hot and dry of a summer Ukraine has this year. Wouldn't that make it easier to attack ZNPP with amphibious vehicles like BMP-2s and BTR-70s that are most vulnerable when trying to cross the water? Sure, they won't have any cover, but neither would boats and amphibious vehicles trying to cross Kakhovka reservoir when it was full, and at least over sand, BMP-2s will be able to go faster than 5kph.
Thats why Ukraine has received soo many pontoon bridges. Cross the river when its shallow and IFVs can get through? Someone needs to find a map of how the river looked before the dam was built. For now this gives Ukraine and excellent excuse why they cant attack now and need 300 more tanks etc etc.
ukraine mud is famous by now. silt especially on a river bank doesnt dry out and be stable easy..silt holds moisture far longer under a dry crust than most think especially as it will draw moisture from the river bed. just my country expeeience in flood zones . yes the bridging equiptment will be useful to create narrow kill zones i guess. personally i prefered the putin gave every soldier viagra bs . life was much simpler with that bs
I don't know if you've ever heard of the Oleshkivska heath, but the climate in that part of Ukraine trends towards being pretty dry, and Kherson Oblast is likely to face some degree of desertification due to the partial destruction of this dam. As such, the former reservoir area absolutely can and will dry out, as I live in an area that's semi-desert in climate like Kherson, I can tell you that even the largest floodplains, riverbeds, or reservoirs will dry out very quickly in that semi-desert sun.
This article really sharpens the mind. You have a gift to help people see a situation more objectively.
What's your view on the video released by the Russian MOD, ostensibly showing Leopards getting hit? Others say they were agricultural vehicle, pointing out the 4 big wheels that couldn't be part of a tank.
Well yeah, I was going to cover that next time in the offensive situational report, but yea the MOD definitely messed up big time on that one. Seems they jumped the gun in their over-eagerness to report on Leopard losses. That's almost definitely a farming tractor, not to mention the audio from the Ka-52 pilots was released and they had no clue what it was either prior to engaging it.
However, one can see how from afar it could very well look like a tank. The Ka-52 pilots don't have the ability to use photoshop and zoom in 900% to examine every inch of it while their life is on the line, only web analysts can ex post facto take their time and do that.
With that said, the MOD was correct in the destructions of the AMX-10s as there's posted intel from the actual tankers operating them which shows them angry at UA command for giving them such shitty tanks which were already blown up
the question remains - what does a grain harvester do on the field at this time of the year? There are no crops to harvest. The only harvester (green combine harvester) could be of one for green plant mass. Which is right in time - but in the region in question there are no cow farms and therefore no meadows or greenland. And no such harvesters ...
i dont know what they farm around there. Its early june so i think even the earliest of winter barley is still some way off. But ukrainians do seem to like to leave machinery in the field where they finished with it last year for some reason.
And another question: WTF is a sprayer doing in the middle of a field being harvested? In addition, in the field with the two "harvesters" there are 3 objects total. What is the third object?
And another one: WTF is a harvester doing right next to the contact line? And when was the field planted anyway, that salient was there in the Autumn as well.
My guess it's probably Leopards. The "funnel" is probably camouflage. Good camouflage breaks up the sihoulette of the object and you got to admit that the barrel of the gun is a dead giveaway. Therefore, camouflage will be deployed to break the sihoulette of the gun barrel, producing a "funnel".
Here's another thing: Ukraine could've blown up or overloaded the dam as part of a media distraction operation, as what would be a better distraction from the catastrophic failure of Ukraine's Zaporozhe offensive than a massive "natural" disaster?
That's a strong possibility, and conveniently well planned as they must have expected heavy losses and had a distraction ready to go. As this progresses NATO always comes up with hapless plans and execution - are these people on Putin's payroll? Now where is Baldrick.
DTnews-@6:01 mayor of Nova reported dam was OK & rumors were false. 6:53 mayor reports power plant breached, dam still standing. Wyrd. He was either completely out of the info loop internally or somehow it was "anticipated."
Ukr can still control flow/flooding with 4 upstream dams so intentional flooding is still an option later. This fup benefits both sides but-
Crimean water supply is an expensive chip to play with. At this stage of conflict & time of year it would seem to me to be ludicrously illogical to risk it's security.
Then again, this conflict makes little sense at times, like a bloody slo-mo Kabuki theater production. Fighting will move east & north in the meantime.
No shite, he even beat Russia in filing for an emergency UN security meeting by minutes and so it goes- we all saw the headlyings convicting the usual suspect. Someone seriously has to take out the script writer, this black comedy has everyone's life on the line...
Disaster Capitalism ! I reckon there's a bidding war already started amongst US global corporations on who gets to fix the dam - after the Ruskis are sent packing !
Tactically this is probably not much benefit for Russia, and its probably not much for Ukraine either. But you have to remember, the NATO/Ukrainian side has never cared much about their actions being tactical or strategic, at least in regards wining this war, they have been killing fellow Ukrainians since 2014, and continue to use up half their ammunition in order to kill and terrorize as many civilians as they can even now. They've been blowing up buildings and infrastructure, ruining fields, and outright robbing Easter Ukraine for years. The western installed neo-nationalist forces see any death or destruction on those areas as a boon. The NATO forces are waging a classic salt the earth method of warfare on Russian territory, they couldn't be more happy about this. Remember for the US/NATO are well aware Ukraine cant really win, but they believe the more damage they cause the better it would serve their actual goals, their geo-strategic interests.
I think "Undermined" in this case is the regular English meaning of eroded, loss of support, etc rather than the literal put mines underneath, where in Russian mine means just about anything that can be exploded.
Its probably ukraine that did it because it was pointless except for pr and will have no long term effect on the war only on the civilians and thats pretty much typical for everything they do.
You have to remember that "mine" is also, for instance, a coal mine. And a common siege tactic was to drill tunnels below the defender walls. That's where this phrase most likely comes from, not the current use of a word "mine", meaning something that blows up.
"Its probably ukraine that did it because it was pointless except for pr and will have no long term effect on the war only on the civilians and thats pretty much typical for everything they do."
This might be the most convincing argument yet, although it' s sometimes hard to distinguish incompetence from malice.
This seems to be the best war coverage around. The Ukuleles seem to be reduced to desparate gambits. Russia doing a good job keeping their focus and the military and diplomatic objectives.
WaPo just admitted (as the house organ of the CIA--and it's not just Ignatius) that the US knew of detailed plans to blow up Nordstream three months in advance, and its impossible to believe it could have been pulled off without its help. Maybe they are still trying to put blame on the Ukrainians in order to deflect the rage that must be building from the Germans. --Though I am still inclined to believe Hersch's account, because the WaPo has just admitted for the whole world that everything DC says must be treated as a calculated lie. EVERYTHING.
Those WaPo articles have been shifting the blame to Ukraine since Hersch made his revelations, in my opinion its clearly a scramble from the WH administration to come up with some cover, since before Hersch they seemed to have actually thought the whole operation would remain a public secret, where its a situation of; everybody knows the US did it, but you cant prove anything and the all media works for us and wont dare ask questions.
I think that before Hersch, everyone knew that the US blew Nordstream. The fact that the MSM wasn't publishing bombshell reports on a daily basis and the satrapies in Germany, Denmark and Sweden all were in no hurry to investigate show that they knew the score full well.
Hersch was simply the first who was willing to point out the obvious and in public. That Scholz rushed to Washington simply shows that he also knew, and wanted to get the narrative straight.
Germans are the most obedient populace in a continent full of obedient people.
Even when Germans are forced to admit that yes, the United States committed an act of war when they blew up Nordstream, Germans cringe and stare at their shoes and mumble something about how they must have deserved it.
Less important than who destroyed the dam is who gets the most military advantage from its destruction. It's hard to believe that either major field fortifications or supply dumps were placed where they could be easily flooded.
I don't think 'major' ones were placed. As far as the Russian side, the reports are that their positions are easily relocatable. For the AFU, they had to put a lot of ammo dumps in forward areas on those small islet areas simply so their DRG saboteurs can operate ahead and so these might get washed away but I wouldn't character them as "major" ammo dumps either. I don't think either side will lose anything major militarily speaking. Maybe man-hours only as some Russian trenches may get lost that took time to build but I highly doubt anyone will lose anything critical
The term "lock" in English Civil Engineering refers to a channel and at least two water gates used to raise and lower shipping between two bodies of water at differing heights (over the barrage/dam in this case). It can be seen on the right side of the aerial photos, extending perpendicular to the main body.
(Barrage) Gates are large valves fitted to allow controlled raising and lowering of water, and would be the easiest part to damage, but they are according placed in channels to prevent the sort of damage seen if they were to fail, so the damage would have to much more extensive than just the gates, or the spillway/channels would have to have been in a precarious state.
A strike to the turbine hall is the most severe, if the turbines were not already isolated. It's also possible that it was either an accident due to improper maintenance, lack of maintenance, or running the turbine outside it's design specs (loss of operator skills/knowledge in war would seem likely. This is particularly possible if the dispatch control was given directly to the grid regulating control room with no local supervision. Sayano-Shushenskaya power station accident is worth a study if time allows. A 300 ton turbine spindle with sufficient pressure behind it is pretty impressive.
Thank you. Even when you don’t give a clear answer all the details from all sides is an amazing piece of work.
Comparing the water levels in the second graph to the dates of the tweeter shows that Russia was able to bring the water level down slightly but not much and not for long which lends credence to the pressure on the dam.
Whether it collapsed on its own due to its weakening from the continuous shelling of Ukraine since last year or had “one last push” is hard to tell. I’ve been reading about it for a while now and it was not hidden the Ukrainian plans for it.
If it didn’t get that last push, then the blame falls squarely on Ukraine. If it did, then most of it but who did the last push is the question. The timing is too good to have fallen completely on its own though.
With Nord Stream where capability and motive makes it clear who did it (US/UK/NATO - I don’t for a moment believe it was Ukraine). This is harder to get a definitive answer. Either way (last push or not), Ukrainians are all thumbs up for it which tells you enough.
McGregor btw thinks it fell on its own, same with Alaister Crooke.
Russia should definitely continue to “go slow.” In fact, they should “go even more slowly.” Why not? Give the Ukuleles and their NATO/US puppet masters more time to cause havoc and win the propaganda war. It’s 7D Chess after all, right?
Unreal. Take the goddamn gloves off, flatten this shit hole, and end this nonsense already. Dare NATO to intervene. Bring it on!
Brevet, go back to hiding under your mommy's bed with a warm glass of milk, you retard.
@Bidet pool boy billy masterbatorson
Go watch the movie and try again, dunce cap.
You should see if they give the handicapped parking permit to mentally retarded people. It will simplify your parking situation exponentially.
You lost your nerve cus of a little dam break? Wait til you see what's in store yet to come. Get your SRI's ready
Lost my nerve? Really, man? This is reality. Look at the situation now. Russia is taking too long and giving them too many opportunities to wreck havoc and distract. They need to drop the hammer in earnest, ASAP.
Well, I agree with you in that I wish the hammer would be dropped. But clearly it's not happening so there's not much we can do.
We never have all the facts, the president and the general staff aren't reading military bloggers or social media to get their strategy, they get information we cant even imagine. So all the actions taken are most likely taking into account information invisible to us, and it would be impossible at this point to see the full picture even with what appears to be wrong actions (I am not talking about tactical errors here and there, those are normal for any army even the mythical Third Reich). So I think Russia can drop the hammer, but the benefit for such an action outweighs the long term costs, so far at least.
Yeah, my position is basically that, if Russia could "drop the hammer" they would. They clearly can't at the moment because of a variety of reasons, many of which I've painstakingly covered for months. They're doing the best they can against the entire imperial forces of NATO, and they're winning but it may not be as 'hollywood' fancy and exciting as some people appear to expect
We in the West have been groomed from an early age on "Hollywood results" to the point that even in the face of defeat after defeat we still expect those same 'wunder' results. Even critical minds are losing patience, desiring the "hammer to drop" - this being little more than evidence of our own prior brainwashing.
Dude, the Ukuleles (aka NATO) just blew up a huge fucking dam, but you think it would be "Hollywood fancy" for Russia to drop the hammer and light up Kiev?
I have to think Putin is still courting world opinion. So far I believe it has been the right call. If you are in a country outside the US vassal states you are looking for a winner. If you go Roman on the place you will win the war but it might lose you friends. I suppose this was more accurate at the start of the war. HOWEVER one must understand where we are right now.
We are getting very damn close to some really bad shit IMHO. I don't believe the Western Elites can simply let go of their destiny/legacy. They could finish gutting the US/EU and live a comfortable life somewhere that will be relatively peaceful. The future goes through Eurasia I have no doubt. They have plenty of leverage at the moment to negotiate a good deal for themselves and family. The US/EU are nations with extreme debt and a confused population. It is this population that is the key to pulling this transition of power off without "the bomb" going off.
I believe Putin is going after this demographic US/EU citizens. The only way he can get their admiration is appearing to be reasonable. I must admit it worked on me. Tucker Carlson opened up (first Twitter show) with this very topic. I suggest everyone watch it should be no trouble to find. Elon and Tucker are wise to pound on this war and turn public opinion in the West firmly against it. 3 videos ago Simp included some videos of Scholz & Trudea being heckled pretty good. Now multiply those incidents by 100,000 (arbitrary as I have no clue how many would be needed) and you probably get the point.
Obviously the MIC's and Round Tables could take over and call for a nuke strike but maybe they would flinch? I believe it is the only way to solve this without major loss of life. I am excited to see RFK Jr out there giving them hell. I hope he can do for the Democrats what Trump did for the Republicans. I am not counting on the US 2024 election by the way. I don't suspect we have until then before a game changer of some kind develops.
They're cancelling and censoring anyone who tries to get accurate information to the American people. 95% of the American people have no clue what's really going on or just don't give a shit. All they care about is weed, sportsball, and getting laid.
Russia needs to take the gloves off and destroy Ukulele. Completely and totally.
Still going, dumbfuck?
Believe me I know. The ONLY thing that definitely can snap them out of it is severe pain. Probably the type we consider to be civilization changing. You’re right they’re hopelessly snowed under. Something that could very well work is fear.
I admit both suggestions are long shots but it’s the best I got. TPTB have no choice they will keep escalating until it all goes to hell I think. They’re capable of anything to protect what is their (what they consider).
Russia causing Americans severe pain will just cause them to hate Russians. They won't blame their own government because the indoctrination is too thorough, and the propaganda ubiquitous. Besides, what the people want doesn't matter. By slowly creating facts on the ground Russia puts the American rulers in a position where they are forced to concede to Russia's demands. The rest of us are just collateral damage, whichever side we support.
I've chosen not to take what chucky says seriously, since they admit to not contributing to the war effort.
and that's because the 5% who do know something never make any effort to spread it around. much less get on the backs of their elected reps about it.
same everywhere. and it was the same all through covid.
I’ve lost a lot of friends trying to talk sense into them about Putin, Russiagate, Covid, Syria, etc. The brainwashing is too complete. The propaganda too pervasive. School S no longer teach critical thinking. It is now rude or uncool to question the narrative. One cannot argue with stupid.
Even when they do spread it around, all they do is alienate people and cause the people that they are trying to educate to double down.
Oh, you mean like write a letter to my congress critter. And get a nice fancy letterheaded, propaganda note back that is nothing but pablum? Been there, done that. They only care about their next lobbyist payola.
Yeah, we heard you the first time(s). It's getting old, fast.
Then skip over my comments because I'm going to keep saying it, Karen.
"I believe Putin is going after this demographic US/EU citizens. The only way he can get their admiration is appearing to be reasonable."
If so, then it's not working.
I had no clue about any of this when it officially kicked off. I was the “couldn’t find Ukraine on the map” guy. However I do appreciate critical thinking. Seeing the actions of Western leaders after covid I would not put anything past them.
There might be some others coming around. I’m banking on that because really it’s all I got. Any other path is a perilous journey. Even this path probably involves major restructuring of Western Nations as they lose their dominance. At least it allows for the existence of humanity.
IMO one thing Putin does NOT want to do is have the Western populations clamoring for war. He’s done a great job of making sure that hasn’t happened. If you doubt they could be whipped up into a frenzy I point you to two years of the covid madness. It seems most of the Western people are squarely against our involvement. Admittedly it’s probably more for selfish reasons though. Doubt they give a fuck about dead Ukrainians or Russians. They don’t seem to give a shit if any whites get beaten or bludgeoned over here. They are just upset that money is going to Ukraine which is dominated by white males as opposed to their favorite LBGTQ group.
Idk man it’s a mess and there’s a lot of moving parts.
Good on you, man. As someone who was knowledgeable about all this before I appreciate your open mind. I don’t think Putin is terribly concerned with the opinions of Europeans and Americans. He is very concerned with the opinions of the RoW. He’s acting in a way to keep them onside and present an alternative to the euro-merican order. He won’t go shock and awe unless forced because that’s what the US would do.
I assume that the sino-Russian plan is engineered collapse of the US empire. Stretch it, push it but don’t break it. Let it break from its own internal contradictions. It may be the only way to avoid nuclear war. It may not work.
Isn’t it funny how it all seems to be winding down? I guess cranking up is a better euphemism. It does seem like people are opening up. I have gotten my hopes up before. At the same time people have begun to learn who the real assholes happen to be. These assholes can’t operate at high efficiency unless they’re in the shadows. Gonna see how those vampire bastards do in the light.
When I say Putin is courting Westerners. I do not believe for a moment that either Putin or Xi; Russia and China give a flying rats ass about U.S. citizens. I should have made that more clear. No, you see what is happening to the Ukrainian Army. Mr Putin is all business. I suspect Xi to be no different. They simply want us to be kind and mind our space. However we know they, China especially, are slated to remove us from the throne. Russia was supposed to be finished by now or close and Globohomo was to be sharpening his axe licking his chops glaring at China. The West got all this started for a reason the primary one is securing their order by weakening those 2.
Boat China & Russia are so so at the propaganda piece. At least when held to the status of our own. All they ever had to do was wait. Another reason China didn’t want Trump gone. Lol the right tends to blame them ya know. Like Russia, I don’t really have any complaints about what they (China) have done since 2000. And I no longer have ANY faith in the CIA MIC St Dept much less the media who handle their affairs.
Gave a pretty good dress up on this thread somewhere describing the kind of “Unpredictable” the US is. We are the wild eyed man in a trench coat kinda unpredictable. Except instead of a sawed-off we have a whole array of the nastiest weapons in history.
I don’t believe anyone trusts us anymore. I suspect half of our vassal states want to haul ass. AND this is why the people MUST be energized. Probably should have clarified that too. The people must put continuous support on their reps. It’s the only chance we have to do this without a lot of blood and guts. And even that is no guarantee.
I suspect China and Russia are looking for way to kick over the apple cart at this point. They’re winning and will win the long game. Hell they have already won IMHO. Think about this tho. Simp has mentioned; everyone has: What in Gods name is Zelensky/NATO doing this for? Is really a damn good question. This puts us back in the man in a trench coat scene. If either R or C pull anything over here that will catch the public’s eye it will be a large expose. It will be a suicide mission; they would have been on a one way ticket.
Do I think their target will be government figure types? No! They will go after the power grid most likely. Have heard ours is incredibly weak. Dennis Quaid (actor) just released a movie about it. From what I understand it wouldn’t take much to set off a cascade of events. Maybe 10 teams of 3 to shut down power to the country. The objective would be to cripple any retaliatory strikes. Try to shut down a first strike as well. I say 10 teams but there will be no doubt more than that.
It’s the only thing I can think of. No clue if this is accurate but putting 2 and 2 together with what I know. Over and out!
Emotions, emotions..)
This is exactly what I've been saying: Buckle up, kids. This conflict is going to get very ugly and a dam break is only the beginning. The West will configure the battlefield and redesign the concept of warfare in an attempt to win. They likely won't, but victory will require more from the Russian forces than hiding behind third echelon defenses. The Russian army will need to fight like it hasn't had to in 80 years.
For instance...?
AI drone swarms. Bring on Skynet.
We'll have Gigawatt Fusion generators hooked to the grid well before we have AI drone swarms...
You can't fit enough compute into a 2 tonne car for it to drive itself, let alone squeeze it down into a drone.
Driving safely on public roads is a much more difficult problem than flying a disposable drone. Still, I doubt that the west is capable of producing AI drone swarms for a variety of reasons.
Don't need AI if you have FPV drones, of which Russia apparently has thousands. Maybe they are preparing such an approach. Takes time to train the pilots though, it's not as easy as it looks like to fly one.
What is SRI ?
In this case, he' s referring to anti-depressants methinks, but it' s actually SSRIs.
Thank you !!
Yeah when do they go with bio weapons again.
Given this person doesn't contribute to the war effort by their own admission, this viewpoint will not be taken seriously and in fact the opposite will happen.
How are you contributing to the war effort, comrade?
How are YOU contributing to the war effort, comrade?
By arguing online with fellow retarded autists. LOL
Given that you admit you don't contribute to the war effort, I don't see any reason to take your position that We should escalate seriously. Maybe try calling up the FBI/CIA for a raise.
Where did I admit that I don't contribute to the war effort, dopey?
Like I said, call up the FBI/CIA.
I don't answer to you, nor will your opinions that We should escalate be taken seriously. I will personally make sure of that.
I'm not affiliated with the FBI/CIA, dipshit. People can disagree with you and believe it's necessary to escalate (which is now very obviously the case after the Ukuleles have blown the dam and caused the subsequent flooding) and not have anything to do with the FBI/CIA.
Get an IQ test.
On the first read, I missed the sarcasm. I personally think Russia going as slow as possible while NATO keeps piling arms and money into the Ukrainian trash compactor for Russia to destroy is a great way to grind down US global hegemony. It is the perfect low risk strategy.
The problem starts if the Collective West wants a ceasefire and a DMZ. What does Russia do then? My guess would be Russia would escalate to somehow keep the pot boiling and to not allow Ukraine and NATO a pause to rearm.
You should not discount a possibility that Russia will welcome a ceasfire with open arms, re-embrace the West, etc. if enough oligarch yachts and bank accounts will be returned. Putin's rule, like any other, continues until enough of the elites support him. If they can both save face and get their lifestyle back i think they'll urge him to negotiate.
So far, though, i don't see the West making any steps towards any negotiated settlement. After the dam story any such talks will be viewed as support for Putin's genocide.
Excellent username. I think the elite in Russia have received the message that supporting Putin is the healthful thing to do.
To stop now before finishing the job would be a huge can kick down the road. Minsk agreements, I'm sure, are still fresh on their minds.
I don't know what Russia would do if the collective West asked for a cease fire and a DMZ, but they should say "No" and carry on. The only question would be their relationship with China. Listening to Martyanov and Scott Ritter last night, I got the impression that China will need Russia's military help if the US starts something over Taiwan, so China may not feel like pressing Russia into a settlement against their interests.
I think China would very much like the Russian meat-grinding in Ukraine to continue and keep the US tied down for as long as possible in the proxy war. They know time is on their side. China will far outgrow the US In economic and military strength and geopolitical influence by 2030.
NATO is destroying itself step by crazy step, none if this plays in their favour in the long term, all Russia has to do is keep its nose clean.
If Russia doesn’t take off the gloves, completely flatten Kiev and the rest of Ukulele, and wrap this shit up ASAP, NATO/US will destroy even more vital infrastructure in terrorist-style attacks. It’s time for Russia to wrap it up.
“Flatten Kiev” -- written by an ignorant imbecile.
Go fuck yourself, dipshit.
I see, you are off your medications again... ;-))
Hopefully, you're still on your AIDS medication.
“Allowing the West to keep thinking they can win – is the ultimate form of grinding out a superior opponent”.
Fortunately the Russians don’t base their military strategy on their emotion like certain internet war strategists would have them do, resulting in their continued success in systematically destroying the Nazi regime and its Atlantacist benefactors.
I generally agree with your analysis here, but I live in a very drought-prone area, so I know that the mud that will be left behind by the receding Kakhovka reservoir will be completely dried out into hard-compacted sand within 4-8 weeks depending on how hot and dry of a summer Ukraine has this year. Wouldn't that make it easier to attack ZNPP with amphibious vehicles like BMP-2s and BTR-70s that are most vulnerable when trying to cross the water? Sure, they won't have any cover, but neither would boats and amphibious vehicles trying to cross Kakhovka reservoir when it was full, and at least over sand, BMP-2s will be able to go faster than 5kph.
Thats why Ukraine has received soo many pontoon bridges. Cross the river when its shallow and IFVs can get through? Someone needs to find a map of how the river looked before the dam was built. For now this gives Ukraine and excellent excuse why they cant attack now and need 300 more tanks etc etc.
ukraine mud is famous by now. silt especially on a river bank doesnt dry out and be stable easy..silt holds moisture far longer under a dry crust than most think especially as it will draw moisture from the river bed. just my country expeeience in flood zones . yes the bridging equiptment will be useful to create narrow kill zones i guess. personally i prefered the putin gave every soldier viagra bs . life was much simpler with that bs
I don't know if you've ever heard of the Oleshkivska heath, but the climate in that part of Ukraine trends towards being pretty dry, and Kherson Oblast is likely to face some degree of desertification due to the partial destruction of this dam. As such, the former reservoir area absolutely can and will dry out, as I live in an area that's semi-desert in climate like Kherson, I can tell you that even the largest floodplains, riverbeds, or reservoirs will dry out very quickly in that semi-desert sun.
The Dnieper is like the Amazon. It is very humid in summer. If there is mud it won't be drying very fast.
This article really sharpens the mind. You have a gift to help people see a situation more objectively.
What's your view on the video released by the Russian MOD, ostensibly showing Leopards getting hit? Others say they were agricultural vehicle, pointing out the 4 big wheels that couldn't be part of a tank.
Well yeah, I was going to cover that next time in the offensive situational report, but yea the MOD definitely messed up big time on that one. Seems they jumped the gun in their over-eagerness to report on Leopard losses. That's almost definitely a farming tractor, not to mention the audio from the Ka-52 pilots was released and they had no clue what it was either prior to engaging it.
However, one can see how from afar it could very well look like a tank. The Ka-52 pilots don't have the ability to use photoshop and zoom in 900% to examine every inch of it while their life is on the line, only web analysts can ex post facto take their time and do that.
With that said, the MOD was correct in the destructions of the AMX-10s as there's posted intel from the actual tankers operating them which shows them angry at UA command for giving them such shitty tanks which were already blown up
Agreed, and thanks for answering my question.
it was 2 combines and a sprayer, about halfway through the video what i first thought was the barrel was clearly the unloading auger
Well knowing Ukraine the "combine" was probably planting mines instead of sowing seeds so good riddance
the question remains - what does a grain harvester do on the field at this time of the year? There are no crops to harvest. The only harvester (green combine harvester) could be of one for green plant mass. Which is right in time - but in the region in question there are no cow farms and therefore no meadows or greenland. And no such harvesters ...
i dont know what they farm around there. Its early june so i think even the earliest of winter barley is still some way off. But ukrainians do seem to like to leave machinery in the field where they finished with it last year for some reason.
And another question: WTF is a sprayer doing in the middle of a field being harvested? In addition, in the field with the two "harvesters" there are 3 objects total. What is the third object?
And another one: WTF is a harvester doing right next to the contact line? And when was the field planted anyway, that salient was there in the Autumn as well.
My guess it's probably Leopards. The "funnel" is probably camouflage. Good camouflage breaks up the sihoulette of the object and you got to admit that the barrel of the gun is a dead giveaway. Therefore, camouflage will be deployed to break the sihoulette of the gun barrel, producing a "funnel".
Love your handle! :-) This is the way!
This seems too chaotic to have been direct sabatouge. Nordstream was clear cut, end German ties to Russia permanently.
This I am not so sure. Perhaps it is simply the chaos of war.
Here's another thing: Ukraine could've blown up or overloaded the dam as part of a media distraction operation, as what would be a better distraction from the catastrophic failure of Ukraine's Zaporozhe offensive than a massive "natural" disaster?
That's a strong possibility, and conveniently well planned as they must have expected heavy losses and had a distraction ready to go. As this progresses NATO always comes up with hapless plans and execution - are these people on Putin's payroll? Now where is Baldrick.
A "like" for Baldrick. Heh heh. Now include a reference to turnips. :)
D-day 2023 turned out to be deluge day.
DTnews-@6:01 mayor of Nova reported dam was OK & rumors were false. 6:53 mayor reports power plant breached, dam still standing. Wyrd. He was either completely out of the info loop internally or somehow it was "anticipated."
Ukr can still control flow/flooding with 4 upstream dams so intentional flooding is still an option later. This fup benefits both sides but-
Crimean water supply is an expensive chip to play with. At this stage of conflict & time of year it would seem to me to be ludicrously illogical to risk it's security.
Then again, this conflict makes little sense at times, like a bloody slo-mo Kabuki theater production. Fighting will move east & north in the meantime.
Given the speed of Zelensky's accusations and stories on NYT and WP, I think "anticipated" is right on.
No shite, he even beat Russia in filing for an emergency UN security meeting by minutes and so it goes- we all saw the headlyings convicting the usual suspect. Someone seriously has to take out the script writer, this black comedy has everyone's life on the line...
Disaster Capitalism ! I reckon there's a bidding war already started amongst US global corporations on who gets to fix the dam - after the Ruskis are sent packing !
Tactically this is probably not much benefit for Russia, and its probably not much for Ukraine either. But you have to remember, the NATO/Ukrainian side has never cared much about their actions being tactical or strategic, at least in regards wining this war, they have been killing fellow Ukrainians since 2014, and continue to use up half their ammunition in order to kill and terrorize as many civilians as they can even now. They've been blowing up buildings and infrastructure, ruining fields, and outright robbing Easter Ukraine for years. The western installed neo-nationalist forces see any death or destruction on those areas as a boon. The NATO forces are waging a classic salt the earth method of warfare on Russian territory, they couldn't be more happy about this. Remember for the US/NATO are well aware Ukraine cant really win, but they believe the more damage they cause the better it would serve their actual goals, their geo-strategic interests.
I think "Undermined" in this case is the regular English meaning of eroded, loss of support, etc rather than the literal put mines underneath, where in Russian mine means just about anything that can be exploded.
Its probably ukraine that did it because it was pointless except for pr and will have no long term effect on the war only on the civilians and thats pretty much typical for everything they do.
You have to remember that "mine" is also, for instance, a coal mine. And a common siege tactic was to drill tunnels below the defender walls. That's where this phrase most likely comes from, not the current use of a word "mine", meaning something that blows up.
The OP was talking about the word "mine" in Russian, which has no bearing whatsoever to the word in Russian for a coal mine.
Russian word for military mines is мины (miinyu) vs coal mines (угольные шахты). You're way off the mark here friend
"Its probably ukraine that did it because it was pointless except for pr and will have no long term effect on the war only on the civilians and thats pretty much typical for everything they do."
This might be the most convincing argument yet, although it' s sometimes hard to distinguish incompetence from malice.
This seems to be the best war coverage around. The Ukuleles seem to be reduced to desparate gambits. Russia doing a good job keeping their focus and the military and diplomatic objectives.
WaPo just admitted (as the house organ of the CIA--and it's not just Ignatius) that the US knew of detailed plans to blow up Nordstream three months in advance, and its impossible to believe it could have been pulled off without its help. Maybe they are still trying to put blame on the Ukrainians in order to deflect the rage that must be building from the Germans. --Though I am still inclined to believe Hersch's account, because the WaPo has just admitted for the whole world that everything DC says must be treated as a calculated lie. EVERYTHING.
Those WaPo articles have been shifting the blame to Ukraine since Hersch made his revelations, in my opinion its clearly a scramble from the WH administration to come up with some cover, since before Hersch they seemed to have actually thought the whole operation would remain a public secret, where its a situation of; everybody knows the US did it, but you cant prove anything and the all media works for us and wont dare ask questions.
I think that before Hersch, everyone knew that the US blew Nordstream. The fact that the MSM wasn't publishing bombshell reports on a daily basis and the satrapies in Germany, Denmark and Sweden all were in no hurry to investigate show that they knew the score full well.
Hersch was simply the first who was willing to point out the obvious and in public. That Scholz rushed to Washington simply shows that he also knew, and wanted to get the narrative straight.
Germans are the most obedient populace in a continent full of obedient people.
Even when Germans are forced to admit that yes, the United States committed an act of war when they blew up Nordstream, Germans cringe and stare at their shoes and mumble something about how they must have deserved it.
"I'm a bad slave, beat me more, Master!"
" ... everything DC says must be treated as a calculated lie. EVERYTHING."
I find that much of the administration's verbal output is a perfect contrarian indicator, especially when it comes to Yellen.
One thing is for sure. This will give NATO the excuse they need to get more involved.
Less important than who destroyed the dam is who gets the most military advantage from its destruction. It's hard to believe that either major field fortifications or supply dumps were placed where they could be easily flooded.
I don't think 'major' ones were placed. As far as the Russian side, the reports are that their positions are easily relocatable. For the AFU, they had to put a lot of ammo dumps in forward areas on those small islet areas simply so their DRG saboteurs can operate ahead and so these might get washed away but I wouldn't character them as "major" ammo dumps either. I don't think either side will lose anything major militarily speaking. Maybe man-hours only as some Russian trenches may get lost that took time to build but I highly doubt anyone will lose anything critical
The huge Russian trench digging machine will dig them again in double quick time.
The term "lock" in English Civil Engineering refers to a channel and at least two water gates used to raise and lower shipping between two bodies of water at differing heights (over the barrage/dam in this case). It can be seen on the right side of the aerial photos, extending perpendicular to the main body.
(Barrage) Gates are large valves fitted to allow controlled raising and lowering of water, and would be the easiest part to damage, but they are according placed in channels to prevent the sort of damage seen if they were to fail, so the damage would have to much more extensive than just the gates, or the spillway/channels would have to have been in a precarious state.
A strike to the turbine hall is the most severe, if the turbines were not already isolated. It's also possible that it was either an accident due to improper maintenance, lack of maintenance, or running the turbine outside it's design specs (loss of operator skills/knowledge in war would seem likely. This is particularly possible if the dispatch control was given directly to the grid regulating control room with no local supervision. Sayano-Shushenskaya power station accident is worth a study if time allows. A 300 ton turbine spindle with sufficient pressure behind it is pretty impressive.
Semi natural is sounding more plausible. Its just too big an escalation for Russia at this time and too small a gain for Ukraine.
Thank you. Even when you don’t give a clear answer all the details from all sides is an amazing piece of work.
Comparing the water levels in the second graph to the dates of the tweeter shows that Russia was able to bring the water level down slightly but not much and not for long which lends credence to the pressure on the dam.
Whether it collapsed on its own due to its weakening from the continuous shelling of Ukraine since last year or had “one last push” is hard to tell. I’ve been reading about it for a while now and it was not hidden the Ukrainian plans for it.
If it didn’t get that last push, then the blame falls squarely on Ukraine. If it did, then most of it but who did the last push is the question. The timing is too good to have fallen completely on its own though.
With Nord Stream where capability and motive makes it clear who did it (US/UK/NATO - I don’t for a moment believe it was Ukraine). This is harder to get a definitive answer. Either way (last push or not), Ukrainians are all thumbs up for it which tells you enough.
McGregor btw thinks it fell on its own, same with Alaister Crooke.