It’s tough to predict what will happen at the 2024 Golden Globe Awards, a ceremony presented by an organization that’s endured no small amount of turmoil in the last three years. We know that the show will be broadcast on Sunday, January 7, for the first time on CBS; we know it’ll be hosted by comedian Jo Koy; we know that in addition to all the usual Golden Globe nominations, the proceedings will include two new categories, for blockbuster films and stand-up specials. Other than that, it’s anyone’s guess who will actually win a Globe this year, on either the film or TV sides of the aisle.

Still, VF’s awards obsessives gave it our best shot, peering into our crystal balls to forecast which stars and projects will go home with some shiny new hardware on Sunday night. Read on for our best guesses in every category.

FILM AWARDS

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Anatomy of a Fall

WINNER: Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

A guide to Hollywood’s biggest races

Now that the HFPA has added new voters to the roster, it’s become a very different awards show to predict. The old HFPA would have gone for Oppenheimer, we think—a big, successful American movie from a British director whom everyone respects. But the new voters—including many journalists of varying stripes—might tilt slightly artier. Which is why we’re predicting Killers of the Flower Moon, a consensus choice between big-name commercial fare and more modern, politically minded cinema. —Richard Lawson

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Air

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

May December

WINNER: Poor Things

The fact that the group formally known as the HFPA gave this award to The Banshees of Inisherin last year over eventual best-picture winner Everything Everywhere All at Once confirms that we can’t assume their choice will line up with the best-picture race at the Oscars. We’ve got several strong contenders nominated here, including American Fiction, The Holdovers, and May December. Most likely, though, it’s a race between blockbuster Barbie (which has the most Globes noms of any film) and the critically acclaimed Poor Things. Will the Globes voters go auteur and weird (they nominated Yorgos Lanthimos’s The Favourite in 2018, but it lost to Green Book), or will they just honor the box office juggernaut Barbie? It’ll be close, but we think the addition of the new cinematic-achievement category (where Barbie will most likely win) actually hurts its chances here. —Rebecca Ford

Best Motion Picture – Animated

WINNER: The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Suzume

Wish

The surprise box office success of what may or may not be Hayao Miyazaki’s final film seems like enough to push this one across the finish line, even if Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is the more mainstream critical hit. Time for those international Globes voters to prove just how internationally minded they can be. —Katey Rich

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

WINNER: Barbie

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

John Wick: Chapter 4

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

Oppenheimer

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Gotta be Barbie, right? Because it sure seems like this entire category was created in order to give Barbie a Golden Globe. Unless, of course, it’s Taylor Swift. But no: getting Swift to attend the ceremony by slipping her a nomination is probably victory enough for the Eras concert movie. So again, I’ll say: It’s gotta be Barbie. But only because Zack Snyder’s Justice League isn’t eligible. —Hillary Busis

Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language

WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall

Fallen Leaves

Io Capitano

Past Lives

Society of the Snow

The Zone of Interest

This category has probably never been so hotly contested, given that fully half of the nominees—Past Lives, The Zone of Interest, and Anatomy of a Fall—are also competing up top in the best-motion-picture (drama) field. Of course, only one of this trio is competing for the equivalent Oscar, with France having submitted the Globes-snubbed The Taste of Things over Anatomy as its official contender and Past Lives not eligible as an American film. This hinky Globes rule, allowing non-English-language US dramas to contend here, has favored such fare as Minari in the past. But I’m reminded of when another such case, The Farewell, lost to an even stronger international Oscar player in Parasite. Not to say Anatomy of a Fall is at that eventual best-picture phenomenon level this awards season, but Justine Triet’s layered legal drama has been cleaning up on the critics’ circuit thus far, and the Globes’ wide embrace of it suggests this may continue. —David Canfield

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Annette Bening, Nyad

WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Cailee Spaeny is Priscilla’s only nomination, so we can rule out a win for her here. Carey Mulligan and Greta Lee both give towering performances in their films, but neither will be enough for a win. Sandra Hüller, with her international appeal, feels like a possibility for Globes voters, and the film performed well in nominations. Annette Bening has been nominated for 10 Globes over her career (and won twice) so she’s a strong contender. But Gladstone has the momentum, after winning a Gotham Award (for a different film, but it somehow still counts), NBR. NYFCC, and a slew of other critics prizes already. —R.F.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

WINNER: Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

After weeks of critics awards, there’s still no clear front-runner in this category, which ought to make it one of the most closely watched races of the night. The voting body of the Golden Globes is radically different from what it used to be, which means that star power doesn’t make for an automatic win. But Bradley Cooper still might have the edge, not just for his A-list status but his deep commitment to both starring in and directing Maestro. His toughest competition is most likely Cillian Murphy or Leonardo DiCaprio, either of whom could win too. But with Maestro newly on Netflix, it feels like the energy might be in Cooper’s favor. —K.R.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings

Natalie Portman, May December

Alma Pöysti, Fallen Leaves

Margot Robbie, Barbie

WINNER: Emma Stone, Poor Things

This category feels like a three-way race between Portman (slyly terrifying as an amoral actor in Todd Haynes’s riff on the Mary Kay Letourneau saga), Robbie (the main Barbie in Barbie), and Stone (giving all she’s got to play a part that sounds, on paper, like something Mary Shelley dreamed up after an ayahuasca trip). Though May December is great, and Portman is great in it, it feels strange to classify the movie as a comedy. And while Barbie is a titanic achievement, Robbie’s role as producer seems even more consequential than her star turn. So I’m going to put my money on Stone, a matter-of-fact delight as undead Bella Baxter, who gradually comes of age as she encounters a variety of European weirdos. Perhaps the Globes voters will see themselves, and their awards-giving organization, in her journey. —H.B.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario

Timothée Chalamet, Wonka

Matt Damon, Air

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid

WINNER: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

While Giamatti could certainly put up a fight here, we think that Wright will be chosen as the representative of his acclaimed film. Wright has long been overdue for this kind of big, awardsy lead film role, an achievement that voters might want to recognize. Plus, his bitter academic character is perhaps a little less bitter than Giamatti’s. Chalamet is adorable in Wonka, Damon is charmingly rumpled in Air, Cage gamely returns to his Adaptation stylings in Dream Scenario, and Phoenix does more of his dazed murmur in Beau Is Afraid. All are strong performances, but Wright is enjoying one of the strongest narratives of the year. —R.L.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Julianne Moore, May December

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

If Moore has any hope for gold this season, it may be at the Globes, which seem like the type of group that’d appreciate the self-conscious melodrama of May December. But given the way she’s already been dominating the season, it’s tough to imagine this award not going to Randolph, so heartbreakingly vulnerable as a grieving mother in Alexander Payne’s boarding school dramedy. If Randolph doesn’t win, a race that seemed locked will undergo an intriguing shake-up; if she does, though, we should expect to see her momentum carry her all the way to another podium. —H.B.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

WINNER: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Charles Melton emerged as an odds-on critics favorite in December awards voting, but here he’s up against several gigantic stars—and two bona fide legends—with a much bigger awards body making choices. We expect it to be, like so many other things, a Barbie vs. Oppenheimer showdown. But as much as we still love Ken, we’re predicting Robert Downey Jr.’s awards season comeback story to start here. —K.R.

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Sure, we have the silly “cinematic and box office achievement” category, as well as the stacked screenplay race, but this is where the Globes’ true Barbenheimer showdown will take place, barring an upset for perennial Globes favorite Martin Scorsese (don’t forget, he won for Hugo). Even if Barbie cleans up on the comedy side and Oppenheimer does the same in drama—no sure thing, as our predictions will tell you—only one can take the top directing prize, and there are compelling arguments to be made for both Christopher Nolan and Greta Gerwig. One brutal stat for this race, though: Since 1986, only a single Globes directing winner has been for what the awards group has designated a comedy or musical (Damien Chazelle, for the very musical La La Land). That, combined with voters’ historical desire to rubber-stamp the presumed Oscar front-runner in this category, signals that Nolan (or again, even Scorsese) has the advantage. —D.C.

Best Screenplay

Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie

Tony McNamara, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

WINNER: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall

There are lots of past nominees in the category again this year (Roth is nominated for the fifth time; Nolan has been nominated twice; McNamara was nominated for The Favourite; Baumbach for Marriage Story) and none have them have ever won. But we’re guessing this might be where the voters give some love to films that aren’t likely to win elsewhere. So we’d say it’s between Celine Song for Past Lives and Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall. And considering the weird coincidence that this category has been won by Irish films for the past two years (The Banshees of Inisherin and Belfast), we’re leaning toward the idea that the voters will favor a European contender and give the win to Triet and Harari. —R.F.

Best Original Score

Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things

Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer

WINNER: Joe Hisaishi, The Boy and the Heron

Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest

Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon

This may be more of a hope-diction than a real prediction, but Hisaishi’s aching, lively score for The Boy and the Heron is just so lovely—persuasively melancholy, flecked with hope—that we just can’t see it not getting recognized. It’s of central importance to the film’s dreamy spell, and may be a pick that better represents a newly expanded Globes electorate. —R.L.

Best Original Song

“Addicted to Romance,” She Came to Me

“Dance the Night,” Barbie

WINNER: “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie

“Peaches,” The Super Mario Bros. Movie

“Road to Freedom,” Rustin

“What Was I Made For?,” Barbie

There’s a very real possibility that the three Barbie songs will split their own vote, making space for a dark horse contender like the Rustin ballad from Lenny Kravitz or even the viral Mario song, “Peaches.” But the Barbie songs with the biggest push seem to be “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken,” and only one of them was big enough to earn its own Christmas remix. Is that enough to get past Billie Eilish, who already has an original song Oscar? Maybe not. But if we’re honest, our hearts are simply with the Kens. —K.R.

TV AWARDS

Best Television Series

1923

The Crown

The Diplomat

The Last of Us

The Morning Show

WINNER: Succession

The Globesiest thing that could happen here would be The Morning Show triumphing over Succession, a series generally agreed to be the high watermark of television in the past five or so years. But as attractive as Apple’s chaotic hatewatch may be, it’s hard to imagine it edging out Jesse Armstrong’s juggernaut just one week before it sweeps the Emmys yet again. Better luck next time, UBA. —H.B.

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Abbott Elementary

Barry

WINNER: The Bear

Jury Duty

Only Murders in the Building

Ted Lasso

Unlike the Emmys, the Globes voters don’t often give the same show the win in this category more than once (the last time a show won in back-to-back years was Glee in 2010 and 2011), which puts last year’s winner, Abbott Elementary, at a slight disadvantage. Still, the ABC hit cleaned up last year, with Quinta Brunson winning the Golden Globe for best actress and Tyler James Williams winning best actor as well. We’re betting voters pick a newer show this year, which means dark horse Jury Duty could be a real possibility, and a fun unexpected choice. But we think the heat is with The Bear, which was nominated last year, but had an especially strong second season. Just to keep things a little chaotic, please note that The Bear is nominated for its second season at the Globes, while the first season is currently nominated at the Emmys (which are happening on January 15 this year, thanks to the actors strike). —R.F.

Best Television Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television

All the Light We Cannot See

WINNER: Beef

Daisy Jones & the Six

Fargo

Fellow Travelers

Lessons in Chemistry

The back half of 2023 was very light on buzzy limited series. So even though the Golden Globes love to go their own way whenever possible—recent winners in this category include Wolf Hall and The Underground Railroad—Emmy front-runner Beef appears no less likely to triumph here. The Netflix dark comedy dominated critically and in terms of viewership numbers, and seems to dwarf its competition. If these voters were to surprise, they’d probably go with a well-received late-breaking entrant like Showtime’s Fellow Travelers, which should fare well with the Emmys next cycle. But there’s a wide gap between the two. —D.C.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Helen Mirren, 1923

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us

Keri Russell, The Diplomat

WINNER: Sarah Snook, Succession

Imelda Staunton, The Crown

Emma Stone, The Curse

While Stone is brilliant in The Curse, truly giving one of the performances of the year in either television or film, and Staunton has sturdily seen an icon through to her end, Succession was too undeniable a phenomenon for Snook not to win. The final season is perhaps less fresh in people’s minds than something that aired this fall, but Snook has already proven to be a Globes favorite, winning in supporting last year. She’s moved into the lead category for her final run, and the votes ought to follow her there. —R.L.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Brian Cox, Succession

WINNER: Kieran Culkin, Succession

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us

Jeremy Strong, Succession

Dominic West, The Crown

If Emmy winner Jeremy Strong is the front-runner and Brian Cox is the dark horse, then Culkin feels like a solid choice for this category’s ultimate victor. He got a real showcase in the final season of Succession, and choosing him feels in step with an organization that wants to reprove the Globes’ bona fides as a show with good but slightly quirky taste. He may be Logan Roy’s number two boy—or even number three—but come Sunday, Roman will be number one. —H.B.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

WINNER: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear

Elle Fanning, The Great

Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building

Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face

In their earlier form, the Golden Globes loved nothing more than giving an award to a fresh, new, usually female face on television. Things may have changed, but the expected popularity of The Bear and the meteoric rise of star Ayo Edebiri gives her a serious edge, particularly since only one other nominee—Natasha Lyonne—represents a new show. On the other hand, last year’s winner, Quinta Brunson, is also back in the mix, and could be going for a repeat here. But with a big night for The Bear in store, Edebiri ought to have her moment on stage too. —K.R.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Bill Hader, Barry

Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Jason Segel, Shrinking

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

WINNER: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Jeremy Allen White is giving one of the best dramatic performances on TV, and appears unstoppable in the race for best actor in a comedy series. Something would have to go very wrong for him to not win both the Emmy and Golden Globe over the next month. The Globes are slightly more likely to change course, given that they’ve already honored the Bear star (he’s competing here for season two, and at the Emmys for season one; don’t try to make it make sense). This category is also notorious for wild freshman surprises, like Mozart in the Jungle’s Gael García Bernal or House of Lies’ Don Cheadle. Who would that newcomer be this year? Jason Segel for Shrinking, perhaps? It’s very hard to imagine, but goodness knows past Globes voters have gone weirder than that. —D.C.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six

WINNER: Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry

Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death

Juno Temple, Fargo

Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers

Ali Wong, Beef

This very rich category is tighter than it might appear at first glance. Ali Wong remains the safest bet, given Beef’s overall strength this awards cycle. But watch out for Rachel Weisz, whose tour de force in Dead Ringers had been snubbed to this point mainly because it was so underseen; the fact that Globes voters nominated her indicates they saw the work, which means she shouldn’t be underestimated. And again, this awards body loves a late-breaking TV contender, and none fit the bill here better than Brie Larson, a big star—and past winner—thriving in her best role in years in Lessons in Chemistry, which is also up for best limited series. For a little fun, we’ll predict a little chaos on this menu. —D.C.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers

Sam Claflin, Daisy Jones & the Six

Jon Hamm, Fargo

Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers

David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves

WINNER: Steven Yeun, Beef

It’s tough to judge this category based on previous years, when stars like Mark Ruffalo and Russell Crowe came out on top simply, it seems, because they’re stars. (No offense to HBO’s I Know This Much Is True, a limited series that absolutely exists.) So instead, let’s assume that the newly reformed Globes will vote with their hearts, giving Yeun the win for his complicated, vulnerable, and very funny turn in Netflix’s genre-mashing series. —H.B.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role on Television

WINNER: Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown

Abby Elliott, The Bear

Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets

J. Smith-Cameron, Succession

Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building

Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

Now that Sarah Snook is out of the way, we think it’s time for Debicki, a 2022 nominee, to win a prize for playing Princess Diana with such observant insight. Sure, Meryl Streep is lurking in there, but Only Murders has lost some buzz as it’s aged. As did Ted Lasso, which probably means that Waddingham won’t pick up another trophy for her final season. Love or hate The Crown, Debicki’s performance has been a highlight of the series. It feels only fitting that she wins for so sensitively depicting Diana’s final days. —R.L.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role on Television

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show

WINNER: Matthew Macfadyen, Succession

James Marsden, Jury Duty

Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

Alan Ruck, Succession

Alexander Skarsgård, Succession

He who wins control of Waystar Royco wins the Golden Globe, isn’t that how the saying goes? As usual, there’s far too many great Succession performances to choose from, including Alan Ruck getting long-overdue awards recognition for his tragicomic performance as Connor. But it’s hard to deny that the end of Succession ultimately belonged to Tom Wambsgans, and even in the mix against stars of comedy shows like James Marsden, Macfadyen ought to win out here. —K.R.

Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television

Ricky Gervais, Ricky Gervais: Armageddon

Trevor Noah, Trevor Noah: Where Was I

WINNER: Chris Rock, Chris Rock: Selective Outrage

Amy Schumer, Amy Schumer: Emergency Contact

Sarah Silverman, Sarah Silverman: Someone You Love

Wanda Sykes, Wanda Sykes: I’m an Entertainer

Let’s be clear: The Globes (probably) don’t want to see anyone get slapped onstage. But they don’t not want that, and they definitely (probably) wouldn’t mind getting some reflected buzz by giving Rock an opportunity to discuss the slap from their very own stage. It probably doesn’t hurt that Rock is one of stand-up’s all-time greats, making him a natural choice for the inaugural award in this category—and that this first-of-its-kind live special set a streaming record for Netflix. —H.B.