Ukraine counteroffensive
US intelligence gave a downbeat assessment in February of the prospects for Ukraine’s expected spring counteroffensive, due to shortfalls in troop numbers and equipment deliveries. Only modest battlefield gains were expected.
Ukraine air defence
US intelligence warned that Ukraine was fast running out of its Soviet-era anti-aircraft missiles, which still provided nearly 90% of its air defence arsenal despite shipments of western systems. It predicted SA-11 Gadfly missiles would have run out by the end of March and S-300 missiles would run out by May, potentially ceding air superiority to Russia. The Pentagon advised looking for other sources of missiles, and for Ukraine to be more sparing in their use.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the use of drones
The Ukrainian president was reported as urging his armed forces chief, Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, to use armed drones to attack Russian military targets in the Rostov region, in Russian territory, because Ukraine lacked missiles with the range to hit Russia’s rear lines.
China and Ukraine
One intelligence report warns that Beijing “is likely to use attacks by Ukraine that go deep inside Russia as an opportunity to cast Nato as the aggressor, and may increase its aid to Russia if it deems that the attacks were significant”.
Egypt and Russia
According to the Washington Post, one of the documents reports that the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatteh el-Sisi, ordered the production of 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia. The White House said no weapons had been sent.
UK special forces in Ukraine
One document suggests that the UK has deployed as many as 50 special forces to Ukraine between February and March this year, accounting for more than half of the western special forces personnel in the country at the time. The figure is considerably higher than the number from the US and France, which were said to have deployed 14 and 15 special forces respectively.
It is unclear what activities the special forces may have been engaged in or whether the numbers of personnel have been maintained at this level.
South Korea and ammunition
A US report quoting signals intelligence in early March said the South Korean national security office was concerned that ammunition, particularly artillery shells, supplied to the US could end up in Ukraine, violating national laws on supplying arms to a party in an active conflict. One option discussed was the possibility of selling a third of a million rounds to Poland, Ukraine’s neighbour.
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Hungary and the US
One of the documents shows that the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, described the US as one of the top three adversaries of his party, Fidesz. The discussion took place at a Fidesz parliamentary group meeting in February. A pro-government source in Budapest told the Guardian that Orbán had not named the US but the Biden administration specifically.
Israel
One document, marked top secret from a CIA intelligence update on 1 March, says Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency was encouraging its officers to take part in protests against the Israeli government’s plans to weaken the independence of the judiciary. The Israeli government denied there had been any Mossad involvement in the demonstrations.
Chinese interests in Nicaragua
US intelligence reported that since the middle of last year, Managua had been negotiating with a Chinese company to conduct surveys for a deepwater port at Bluefields on the country’s Caribbean coast, potentially diversifying its defence relationships away from dependence on Russia.
The struggle for the Arctic
One report discussed anxiety in the Russian defence ministry about Nato plans to more actively challenge Russian claims in the Arctic by increasing warship patrols and increasing the alliance’s general military presence in the region as “a precedent for establishing the legitimacy of a Nato military base in areas of the Arctic claimed by Russia”.