- Russia has launched recent and repeated air strikes in Ukraine involving missiles and drones.
- The attacks raise questions about the state of Russian missile stockpiles and impacts of sanctions.
- Russia's increased missile production puts further pressure on Ukraine's effective but strained air defenses.
Massive strikes against Ukraine in recent days suggest Russia has replenished its missile stockpiles, and intelligence indicates it's going after a new batch of critical targets.
The repeated bombardments also raise questions about the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia aimed at weakening its war machine and curbing its ability to produce weapons, a capability that appears to have ramped up to fuel its latest strikes. It's unclear, though, how long Russia can sustain these attacks, which are again burning through its stockpiles.
Over the past few days, Russia has launched massive long-range strikes against Ukraine, targeting both civilian and military infrastructure. Last Friday's attack has been described by Ukrainian officials as the worst aerial strike of the war, involving 158 missiles and drones and a death toll of at least 39 people.
On Tuesday, Russia followed that attack with more than 130 missiles, 10 of which were Kinzhal missiles, and drones. Ukraine said it was able to shoot down the majority of the incoming threats, including all of the Kinzhals, using Western-provided air defenses such as the US-made Patriot.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday that since last Friday, the Russians have lobbed about 500 missiles and drones at his country.
The sheer number of weapons used is consistent with warnings from Ukrainian officials that Russia had been amassing weapons for larger air assaults and raises questions about both its stockpiles and production capabilities.
The strike on Friday, December 29, "appeared to be a culmination of several months of Russian experimentation with various drone and missile combinations and efforts to test Ukrainian air defenses," the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington DC-based think tank, wrote in its assessment. Stockpiled, too, was a variety of sizes of missiles.
ISW added that while Russia would continue to conduct strikes at a large scale in efforts to overwhelm Ukraine's defenses and degrade its morale, its current "missile and drone reserves and production rates likely do not allow Russian forces to conduct regular large-scale missile strikes, but likely do allow for more consistent drone strikes."
And after the most recent attacks, it appears as though Russia may be expending missiles faster than it can replace them.
"The December 29 strikes, which included five Kinzhal missiles, for example, used roughly one month's worth of Russia's reported production of that system," ISW noted in a recent assessment of the situation.
That said, recent reports suggest Russia has been and continues to heavily invest in its missile production capabilities. Although Western sanctions slapped onto Russia — and its status as a pariah nation after its full-scale invasion in February 2022 — put quite a large dent in the Russian defense industry, it appears as though the initial effect has worn off.
Two things are happening. One, Russia has mobilized its defense industry for war-time production, an effort Western officials recently admitted they underestimated, and two, certain nations, such as North Korea and Iran, have partnered closely with Russia, supporting its war efforts.
Experts have previously assessed that Russia has upped its production of long-range munitions, among other weapons and systems.
"For Russia, the supply of strike munitions is increasing. In October 2022 Russia was producing approximately 40 long-range missiles a month. Now it is producing over 100 a month, and this is supplemented by large numbers of Geran-2 UAVs," Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote in an October report.
Justin Bronk, a fellow RUSI expert, recently made a similar assessment, noting that "Russia has now transitioned its economy onto a war footing."
"For much of the year, Russian forces in Ukraine have been suffering from significant shortages of vehicles, weapons and above all ammunition," he wrote in December. "However, from a low point in the spring, Russia's military supply situation has been steadily improving."
Russia's investment in munitions production have Ukrainian officials worried, particularly as debates in the West about future aid lead to strains of current defenses, weaponry, and resources. An expert told Business Insider's Sinéad Baker Russia may be attempting to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses when replenishment is potentially in jeopardy.
In an interview with The Economist published January 1, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the West had lost urgency in supporting Ukraine, which would leave its forces vulnerable as Russia launched renewed air and ground campaigns.
If anything, the December 29 and January 2 air assaults add weight to Zelenskyy's concerns. Targets in Ukraine were largely saved by US-provided Patriot defense systems, which successfully shot down threatening ballistic and cruise missiles. As Russia continues to launch air strikes, it'll look for holes in Ukraine's defenses — and those vulnerabilities could become apparent without future Western support.
Russia's recent attacks, as the UK Ministry of Defense noted in an intelligence update on Wednesday, saw a shift in strategy. Like others, the Ministry assessed that Russia had "committed a significant proportion of the stocks of air launched cruise missiles and ballistic missiles they had built up over recent months," but it also noted that the targets had changed.
"The recent strikes likely primarily targeted Ukraine's defense industry," the Ministry said, which contrasts with attacks last winter and in early December 2023 that mainly aimed for energy infrastructure, attacks that have been rather ineffective.
"These new operations suggest at least a temporary change of approach in Russia's use of long-range strikes," the Ministry noted, adding that "Russian planners almost certainly recognize the growing importance of relative defense industrial capacity as they prepare for a long war."
