Rule-by-decree mandates will ultimately condemn the green energy agenda.

The Chevron Deference is no more. Now what?

A concise daily companion newsletter for SPX/ES Traders offering a chart, accurate daily levels, actionable trade plan, and insight into the art and science of trading from the perspective of a professional trader.

Introduction

Hey folks- The key level today was at 5543 and I expected resistance at this level. We got some selling, but the selling was quite weak of about 10 dollars. This level was taken out with fair ease an…

An Outlook

A turbulent but resilient month for the Citrindex caps off another quarter of outperformance

S&P 500 4,769.83 | 10-Year UST Yield 3.88%

S&P 500 5460.48 10-Year UST Yield 4.40% :: June 30, 2024

Never mind the Rich Men North of Richmond, here's who ultimately pays...

The West is setting itself up for a huge credit crisis. Central banks will still be able to fund their operations. But they won't be able to protect the value of their own currencies.

Container Store Inc. ($TCS), Casa Systems Inc. ($CASA), MVK Holdco, Humanigen, Lordstown + More

Robertshaw + Incora + Purdue Pharma & More.

Have you ever heard about Coffee Can Investing? It’s a long-term investing strategy where you buy great companies without having the intention to sell them over the next few years or even decades. So today we ask ourselves this question: Which companies would I like to own for the next 30 years?

Do you know Vitaliy Katsenelson? He’s a great friend and one of the best value investors I know. In today’s interview, you’ll learn more about his investment philosophy.

Every month you'll get 4-6 of Jonah's best growth stock ideas with the research and writeups.

Paid subscribers to Jonah’s Growth Stock Deep Dives receive ~2 deep dives per month (8,000+ words), ~2 mini deep dives per month (2,000+ words) and quarterly earnings commentary on most of my portfolio companies plus access to my investment portfolio (up +155% YTD in 2024, up +134% in 2023 and up +2,600% since January 2020) with real-time activity, notes/commentary and charts throughout the day.

Where Are We Now?

Sluggish Global Liquidity Growth

The Rapid Collapse of the 16th Largest Bank in America

The Crisis in the Structure of British Housing

After reflecting a bit on the price action today, a few tea leaves stood out that the shift to unloved/IWM-like stocks and away from consensus Mega-caps could continue to have legs, potentially causing the QQQs to be choppy in the near-term. Many of you readers know that we here at TMTB like to look at reactions to morning news items/earnings as tea leaves for broader market patterns, especially when we see a change in character. We always like to ask ourselves if these reactions are rationale. Stocks going up on bad news is a bullish sign and stocks going down on good news is the opposite. Over the last couple weeks, there haven’t been many tea leaves to point to a change in character in the market’s behavior.

Note: TMTB will on vacation from July 1st through July 18th. This will be the last post until then. Details here. Good morning. Consensus so far is Biden put in a brutal performance. QQQs +50bps ahead of PCE on last day of the q. BTC +50bps; China +1%. Let’s get to it.

Well I have to do another one of those emergency emails this time late at night like that one recently that came when the market broke trend. I’ve gotten I don’t know how many emails and messages about people in panic right now about the market. META just had a horrible earnings reaction and the overall market has just been in a downtrend for 3 weeks no…

Alright so tomorrow is a half session in the market before the 4th of July holiday. It should be a pretty slow day so I won’t be around. I will be back friday morning as that is a normal session. As for today it was another session of nothing, this is the longest we’ve gone sideways since around new year’s where the market also did this for a month. Earnings season kicks off with all the big banks next friday so it appears the market is going to remain in no man’s land until we hear some earnings. You can see today’s volume is negligible, nobody is around this week, even friday will likely be a slow session so I wouldn’t make too much out of anything that goes on this week. The VIX is sitting at just over 12 after dipping below it for a little, this is just a period of no fear whatsoever, typically when you should be adding puts especially with how close we are to a break of the 21 ema.

Some history sheds light on how today's supercycle in commodities differs from the last one. I elaborate on my framework for understanding commodity price action today and how I think about positioning in and trading them.

Today I take a fresh look at my framework for the coming months along with some updates to my views on oil, grains, the US Soft Patch, and equities.

Hello All, The Year Ahead is finally here. It is quite extensive as it is a prep for the entire year as we head into 2024 with outlook & loads of themes. Since starting this substack, have done several individual write-ups, created 3 baskets all of which have performed well, and have tracked all ideas / tactical trades generated since starting this subs…

Hello All, Greetings from Positano, I hope you all are enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens. Looking back at last week, it was a relatively quieter week with the majority of the indices essentially finishing flat on the week whereas small-caps were the out-performer on the week finishing up over 100bps.

A quick update on South Africa & Platinum; Possible trades

Plus: H2 2024 Preview

The value over growth outperformance is set to accelerate from here

for Monday, July 1st, 2024

I'm expecting one of the largest mainstream media pivots in history in 2022, catalyzed by capitalism and common sense.

I had the wonderful pleasure of interviewing my friend Chris Martenson from Peak Prosperity this week. The conversation was...less that optimistic.

Goldman exec throws a party and SEC stokes anxiety among ESG activists

Also, banking industry claps back at Tarullo's stress test ideas; gloating about SEC's `legal losing streak'

Plus a new addition to the portfolio.

Exiting one position and loading up on another.

Volume 50

Volume 103 - Stock pickers market

Bad things lead to more bad things. But (some) bad things can be fixed.

"Immaculate disinflation" works best if consumer spending rises less than incomes. That may finally be happening.

Pivot : 16450 Longs to : 16610 // 16680 Shorts to : 16220 I have now rolled my contracts. I typically do this sooner but I felt like I had a better Pulse on the previous Prices. Your understanding is an…

Balance has been carved within this range between 19680 + 20210. These rotations have been quick with few extensions above / below. This range holds the tape required for the next Auction Break.

2024, Mar 4

The FIPEST Report, June 30, 2024

Are those worrying about Peak Cheap Oil and $120+/barrel prices misguided?

Common ways to protect your portfolio using option hedges